On Tuesday, the housing statistics for August were presented by Eiendom Norge. After two consecutive months of falling house prices, the trend reversed in August. – House prices rose 0.4 per cent in August, which is the weakest August month in the history of house price statistics. The interest rate increases are now starting to bite house prices, says managing director Henning Lauridsen of Eiendom Norge. – We expect a weaker development in house prices beyond the autumn, and it is not unlikely that we will have a similar development in house prices as last year. In the autumn of 2022, house prices fell sharply in the run-up to Christmas, before it reversed in January with the easing of the lending regulations, he continues. Housing numbers in Norway In August, 9,270 homes were sold in Norway, which is 2.6 percent fewer than the corresponding month in 2022. So far this year, 64,178 homes have been sold in Norway, which is 1.4 percent more than in the same month period in 2022. In August, 13,318 homes were listed for sale in Norway, which is 4.2 percent more than in the same month in 2022. So far this year, 73,769 homes have been listed in Norway, which is 5, 4 per cent more than in the same period in 2022. – There are significantly more homes on the second-hand market now than in 2022 and both listed and sold so far this year are on a par with 2019, says Lauridsen. It took an average of 38 days to sell a home in August, down from 47 days in July. Oslo and Stavanger and surrounding areas had the shortest sales time with 24 days. Tromsø had the longest sales time with 57 days. Source: Eiendom Norge Bergen had the strongest seasonally adjusted price development in August, where prices rose by 1.2 per cent. Drammen and the surrounding area had the weakest seasonally adjusted price development, with a seasonally adjusted decrease of 2.2 per cent. Kristiansand and Stavanger and the surrounding area have the strongest development so far in 2023, with an increase of 10.4 and 9.7 per cent. The weakest development so far this year is Tromsø with an increase of 2.7 per cent. – Next week there are municipal elections in Norway, and property is an area where local politicians have a lot of power. What the politicians choose to do, or not do, has great significance for price formation in the housing market, says Lauridsen in Eiendom Norge. Boom halt in housing construction Behind the recent housing figures, dark clouds threaten on the horizon. Few people dare to buy a new home these days, and the housing market is slow. Even worse is being responsible for the construction of new homes. In the last three months, only three new housing projects have been started in Bodø. The trend is falling in large parts of the country, statistics from the Housing Manufacturers show: This also applies to suppliers to the construction industry. Last week, news told that more than 100 employees could lose their jobs at Natre Vinduer AS in Hemnes municipality. The reason is that the market situation has changed dramatically over the summer. On Monday, it became known that Byggevareforretningen Trevaren in Stokmarknes is closing down. Stops all construction The largest housing investor in Bodø, Tord Ueland Kolstad, has stopped all housing construction in the city. He says the bottom has fallen out of the market. – 9 out of 10 buyers looking for a new home have disappeared, he says. MOVED TO SWITZERLAND: Tord Ueland Kolstad has built up his billion-dollar fortune by buying and selling housing in Bodø. Now he is stopping all housing construction in Bodø because the market is so bad. Photo: Press photo Kolstad is one of the billionaires who moved to Switzerland last autumn. He believes that price growth and high interest rates have meant that demand for especially new homes has fallen dramatically. – I both believe and hope that we are approaching a peak in the interest rate market and that inflation is starting to come under control. He points out that there has been a significant increase in bankruptcies in the construction sector. – It is clear that these significant changes in a very short time may not have had sufficient focus on other effects such as private consumption and housing construction, he says and adds: – We need housing production in Norway. – A violent fall Bodø is one of the areas where prices have risen the fastest in recent years, says Stein Vidar Loftås in Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge. – A natural consequence when the economy becomes tighter is that more people wait and cannot afford to enter such a market. – What we see is that when it comes to new housing construction, there is a drastic drop. Far fewer homes are being built. Stein Vidar Loftås is executive vice president for communications at Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge. Photo: Terje Rafaelsen When fewer new homes are built, there are more people fighting for the homes that are available. This means that the market is kept up, explains Loftås in Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge. – It is clear that we have an increase in population in Norway overall and if you are not able to follow up with building housing, there will eventually be an imbalance and we must monitor this carefully. – On the second-hand property side, however, the levels have not changed much. There is a slightly longer turnover time, but for now there are no drastic changes there. – Crisis for the new housing market Henning Lauritsen, managing director of Eiendom Norge, explains that housing markets in Norway are now different whether they are used or new housing. – The second-hand housing market is fairly normal, while the new housing market there can be said to be in crisis. Very few new homes are sold. The director believes the market is on its way to being as low as it was during the banking crisis at the end of the 80s. – The sale of new homes, if you correct for population growth, is actually below what they did during the financial crisis. – What consequences does this have? There are more and more of us, and they must have somewhere to live, right? – The fact that the population is growing strongly, but housing construction is slowing down, will have major effects. But what makes it difficult to understand the problem is that we don’t see it. Henning Lauridsen is managing director of Eiendom Norge. Photo: Vegar Erstad / news The homes that are not being built now should have been completed in one or two years. Then Lauritsen believes that the problem will become apparent. He believes that this will also be reflected in housing prices eventually. – All the places where housing was not built even though there was a need for them, will see a stronger price increase. Lauritsen therefore believes that it will be more difficult to get into the housing market in a few years. – This decline in the sale of new homes leads to a decline in housing construction. In the next round, the door may become narrower in several places. Like Kolstad, he believes that the politicians must get on board and help ensure that housing construction does not drop too much. FINN.no: – On the way to normalization But the situation is not equally bad everywhere. Manager at FINN eiendom, Jørgen Hellestveit, says that right now there are 18,600 homes for sale on the marketplace at FINN. – If we compare this to the same day last year, we see an increase of 25 per cent in the number of homes for sale. Part of the reason for this increase is that we are leaving behind a period of very high activity in a hot housing market. Jørgen Hellestveit is a manager at Finn Eiendom. Photo: Karoline Roca / Finn.no But he adds that there are actually fewer homes for sale on the market now than in the years before the pandemic. – Based on our data, it seems that the housing market is heading towards normalization and that we are on our way back to a more balanced housing market in Oslo. FINN set a record for housing for sale ads last week with 1 million visits. Hellestveit therefore believes that interest continues to be high. The homes are further away – We have seen that sales have gone later in the districts all the way. That’s what the head of DNB Eiendom, Renate Sørestrand-Hansen, says. She says that fewer people come to viewings and that it takes longer to sell a property today than in the past. Photo: Stig B. Fiksdal – During the pandemic, the housing market was extremely hot. There were hot bidding rounds, which went far above the asking price, says Sørestad-Hansen, adding: – We see a more normalized housing market now than it has been during the pandemic years. Nordea is also experiencing the same tendencies as DNB Eiendom, says Chief Financial Officer at Nordea, Kjetil Olsen. Like Sørestad-Hansen, he believes that prices are about to go down somewhat. – It is not a seller’s market to the same extent as it was. There are many who offer a home for sale, while the buyers are a little more wait-and-see, says Olsen. Photo: Tom Balgaard / Tom Balgaard/news – In the most pressured areas, there have been a lot of heated and heated bidding rounds. Many who have been house hunting have almost given up because someone always outbids and you are outbid, says Olsen and adds that the home buyers will find themselves in a better setting. – But what is it that is about to turn around? – In the main, it is because interest rates have gone up. This limits the loan possibilities of the regular buyer. – More and more bars in the liquidity requirement on how much you can borrow. And when people get to borrow less, they have less to offer for housing, the seller has to adjust the price down to get bids and then housing prices will come down a bit, Olsen explains. – It is the effect of the rent, but it has taken some time. And it has a connection with the fact that the mortgage regulations were changed.
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Experts believe the housing market for new homes will decline somewhat beyond the autumn – news Nordland
