The postponement of oil exploration in new areas was presented to SV on Tuesday as a climate victory. The oil industry believes there is a crisis, and the FRP talks about a party in Moscow and problems for energy exports to Europe. Neither part is right, several analysts are to believe. – This is symbolic politics. It means nothing, and the oil exploration and activities on the shelf continue as before, says commentator in Stavanger Aftenblad, Hilde Øvrebekk. Hilde Øvrebekk, commentator in Stavanger Aftenblad. Photo: Anders Haualand / news – A shrug in oil policy? – Yes, because they can still open up more exploration in existing areas, which in practice means almost the entire Norwegian continental shelf. Norway has two different types of licensing rounds. The type that is now being postponed, the so-called numbered license round, only applies to immature or unexplored areas. But the TFO rounds, where licenses are awarded in areas with known geology, roll and go as before. This map shows why experts believe SV’s oil victory is symbolic politics. The green fields are open to petroleum activity. The red outline marks the mature areas. The areas outside the red outline are immature. In the concession rounds, some of these areas are announced. Photo: Map taken from the Petroleum Directorate The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has received applications from 26 companies in connection with the announcement of TFO 2022, which will be awarded in the new year. – Almost the entire Norwegian shelf has already been opened. We have to go back to 2013, the last time a new field was opened. There is a high financial risk linked to possible new areas in the Barents Sea, which we are talking about delaying, says Øvrebekk. The 25th round in 2020 was characterized by record low interest, with only seven applicants. – So why is the oil industry crying out for a crisis? – It is a political direction they are reacting to, not what is actually going to happen. Concession rounds Concession rounds There are two types of concession rounds on the NCS, numbered rounds and allocations in predefined areas (TFO). The numbered, ordinary license rounds are usually announced every two years and cover immature areas. Allocations in predefined areas (TFO) are announced annually and include the mature parts of the shelf. (Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) – Completely insignificant Nor does energy analyst at Rystad Energy’s Brussels office, Tore Guldbrandsøy, believe that the budget settlement will have any particular consequences for the time being. – I don’t think there are many people in the oil industry who laugh that this round was postponed. There has been very little interest in the Barents Sea in the last licensing rounds. Tore Guldbrandsøy, energy analyst at Rystad Energy. Photo: Mathias Oppedal / news The analyst points out that the economic risk is great in new areas. Furthermore, when it comes to new gas discoveries, this will also require the companies to find an export solution for the gas. – In any case, it will take 10-15 years from a possible discovery to possible start-up. But the postponement may increase the risk that there will be no exploration in these areas in the future. Among other things, it will depend on the speed of the energy transition, which is now in full swing. Senior analyst Steffen Evjen at DNB Markets also shrugs off the postponement, since the TFO rounds go as normal. – The fact that the 26th licensing round is postponed has a very limited effect on the level of activity on the NCS. The total exploration activity going forward will for all practical purposes be unchanged as a result of the postponement, says Evjen. Steffen Evjen, senior analyst at DNB Markets. Photo: Danske Bank He points out that these numbered concession rounds primarily apply to areas in the Barents Sea which are of rather little interest to the oil companies. – You can almost go so far as to call them insignificant in isolation. And this has no impact on the energy supply in Europe, in our opinion, says Evjen. Thina Saltvedt, energy analyst at Nordea. Photo: Gerd Johanne Braadland / news Energy analyst at Nordea, Thina Saltvedt, believes the decision is a symbolic victory for SV. – It has very little meaning today. But the more postponements there are, the further you get in the green shift. This increases the chance that no search will ever be started there. Not symbolic, says SV But SV does not agree with the criticism. Lars Haltbrekken, spokesperson for climate policy in the Socialist Left Party. Photo: Kristine Ekrheim Vikedal / news – This is not at all symbolic, but an important impact: Just look at the criticism from the oil industry, says SV’s climate spokesperson, Lars Haltbrekken. He points out that SV has not only had the licensing round postponed until this parliamentary term. – In the revised state budget, we were able to take out three blocks in the ice edge zone from the TFO round. Furthermore, it is part of the budget settlement that the government will now investigate the possibility of creating petroleum-free areas with permanent protection against oil and gas extraction. Terje Halleland, the Progress Party’s spokesperson on oil and energy policy. Photo: Even Lusæter / news Frp’s energy policy spokesperson Terje Halleland is adamant that he believes the budget settlement could damage energy exports to Europe. – It may not have an immediate effect, but if we are to have a minimum of credibility, we must maintain stable framework conditions for the oil industry, and this government is not doing that.
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Experts agree that the postponed licensing round has zero significance – news Rogaland – Local news, TV and radio
