North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un rounded off 2023 by threatening a nuclear attack on South Korea. He then told his forces to stockpile weapons and be ready for an armed conflict that could break out “at any moment”. Just a few days later, on Friday and Saturday, hundreds of artillery shells rained down. In recent days, both South Korea and North Korea have organized military exercises with live ammunition in the disputed maritime border area between the two. Kim Jong-un watches the launch of a long-range missile with his teenage daughter in December 2023. Photo: KCNA / via AP Two islands evacuated – no immediate danger of escalation The approximately 5,500 inhabitants of the South Korean border islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong have been evacuated. On Friday, around 200 North Korean artillery shells are said to have hit the sea around the islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong. On Saturday, South Korea’s military said more than 60 North Korean artillery shells had hit the sea north of Yeonpyeong. The aim of the exercises is probably twofold, says Vladimir Tikhonov, professor of North Korea studies at the University of Oslo. – Firstly, it is a good way to prepare for possible clashes. Secondly, it is a good way to use up ammunition that is about to expire, he says. He does not believe there is any direct danger of escalation. US and South Korean soldiers during a joint military exercise in Pocheon on January 4, 2024. Photo: Jung Yeon-je / AFP – Very lucky for them that Putin invaded Ukraine Tensions are high, but North Korea’s motivation is probably something other than starting a war , says Tikhonov. – North Korea is trying to build up its value as a military ally for Beijing and Moscow, thereby attracting investment and increasing trade, says Tikhonov. Vladimir Tikhonov is originally Russian and works as a professor of North Korea studies at the University of Oslo. Photo: Olaf Christensen / UiO Since February 2022, the arrows have pointed in a different direction in Pyongyang. – It was very lucky for them that Putin invaded Ukraine, explains Tikhonov. Suddenly there was great power rivalry, and the long-isolated country was drawn closer to the powerful neighboring countries China and Russia. – North Korea is now exporting artillery shells and possibly missiles to Russia. It may also happen that they get to export some labour. There are good opportunities to make money, says the expert. Kim Jong-un checks out the cockpit of a Russian fighter jet in the Austrian city of Komsomolsk-na-Amur. Photo: AP Tikohonov says North Korea appears to have given up on the goal of reunification, partly because it calls South Korea by its official name, “Republic of Korea,” in state statements. – It looks like Pyongyang has written South Korea off at the moment, says the professor. Thus, North Korea uses the tensions with South Korea as a way to sell itself as a military power, explains Tikhonov. North Korea seen from the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. Photo: Park Dong-joo / Yonhap via AP Claims artillery fire was just a hoax Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, claims South Korea was simply fooled by North Korea detonating explosives that make the same sound as artillery fire, so to speak how South Korean forces would react. – The result was as expected. They mistook the sound of explosives, assumed it was artillery fire, and shamelessly invented a lie, Kim said, according to state news agency KCNA. – Soon they believe that even the booming sound of thunder in the northern sky is artillery fire from our military forces, Kim continued. The South Korean defense has responded by writing off Kim’s statements as “low-level psychological warfare”. – There is always a lot of doubt about what Kim Yo Jong says, Tikhonov points out. Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, has gradually gained more and more power and become more visible. Photo: AP Violation of de-escalation agreement from 2018 The latest round of provocations between North and South on the Korean peninsula comes after a four- to five-year period of de-escalation measures. The military exercises around the South Korean islands are a breach of an agreement from 2018. Under South Korea’s former president Moon Jae-in, there were a number of attempts at diplomatic progress between North and South. Kim Jong-un meets South Korean President Moon Jae-in on the border between the two countries in 2018. Photo: AP The two countries participated as a joint team during the Olympics in Pyeongchang in 2018, and in the same year a de-escalation agreement was signed. Among other things, it involved creating a zone free of military exercises in the sea areas between the north and south, as well as a no-fly zone. US President Donald Trump also held several rounds of negotiations with Kim Jong-un in 2019 and 2020. However, these did not lead to progress, and North Korea remained subject to international sanctions. – Then there was not much the North Koreans could do, and they were quite dissatisfied with this, says Tikhonov. Donald Trump will meet Kim Jong-un in 2019 in the demilitarized zone between North Korea and South Korea. Photo: AP Since then, the North Korean economy has suffered greatly from the corona pandemic. The country was cut off from its most important trading partner, China, for months at a time. In an interview with the BBC from June 2023, several North Koreans say that many around them have died of starvation. Since the borders reopened last fall and South Korea elected a new, less conciliatory president in Yoon Suk-yeol, tensions have risen rapidly. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has worked to increase investment in the South Korean military, strengthen ties with allied countries such as the United States and Japan, and hold more military exercises than before. Photo: Jung Yeon-Je/Pool Photo / AP Last year, North Korea wrote into its constitution that it is a nuclear-armed state. At the same time, the country tested several long-range missiles in the sea off Japan and the Pacific Ocean. Tikhonov believes there will be brighter times for North Korea. – Unfortunately, this is how the world works, but there are more people who profit from war. And one of the countries that profits the most from the war in Ukraine is North Korea.
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Expert believes in good times for Kim Jong-un despite high tensions with South Korea – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
