HASEven going the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, the diagnosis was disturbing: economically, Europe has taken down against the United States for two decades. The Trumpian tornado creates a new major shock. Abandonment of Ukraine, historical break in the transatlantic link, thunderous commercials of trade war, including perhaps “25 %” customs duties ” shortly “ Against the European Union (EU) … Donald Trump saturates the waves and Europeans are struck.
Difficult not to despair of the situation. There are, however, in Europe some good reasons to twist the neck with ambient decline. First of all because populists love nothing as long as the situation blackens to prosper and it would be too good gift to them than to abound in their sense. Then because Europe retains real assets.
And obviously first: its size. The EU may be a geopolitical dwarf, but it weighs economically. Its gross domestic product is 17,000 billion euros, compared to 25,000 billion for the United States. “A trade war with Europe means finding itself face to face with an economy that is more or less of our size”warns the American economist Paul Krugman.
In addition, the EU is less naive than during the first Trump presidency (2017-2021). “We have new retaliation instruments”underlines Elvire Fabry, of the Jacques Delors Institute. In particular, Europe created in 2023 a “AnticoCition Instrument”. This “Nuclear weapon” trade, which has never been used, allows Europeans to reply to a country that would exercise a “Economic coercion”. Legally, this allows him to use other tools than customs duties. The instrument authorizes, for example, to block the access of a country to European public procurement, or to suspend its intellectual property rights. It is also possible to target sole proprietorship, even individuals. “Elon Musk and his companies could be part of it”estimates Aslak Berg, of the Center for Center for European Reform. He suggests, for example, that advertisements on social network X – which belongs to the billionaire – could be prohibited in the EU.
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