The EU countries and the European Parliament have agreed to set 2049 as the end date for natural gas. The aim is to decarbonise the gas market and encourage the transition to “low carbon gases” such as hydrogen and biogas. – Europe is on a journey away from natural gas, says Swedish Energy Minister Ebba Busch in an official statement. Norwegian fields supply gas to Europe through an extensive gas transport system, and are today the largest exporter of gas to the EU. The European end date has not been formally adopted, but in practice there are formalities involved. – This shows that the EU is serious. With 2049 as the end date, imports will start to drop significantly around 2040. Applicants for new exploration licenses should note that, says Paal Frisvold in MDG to news. – Europe is on a journey away from natural gas, says Swedish Energy Minister Ebba Busch in an official statement. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand / AFP – Risky to decide that the gas will be turned off in 26 years Reform of the energy market is part of the EU’s overall goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050. Cicero researcher Asbjørn Torvanger calls it “risky” to decide that the gas will be awake in 26 years – before questions related to carbon capture, infrastructure, costs and technology development have been clarified. – Should an end date be adopted by the EU, some of the Norwegian gas fields could be shut down faster than planned. He adds that investments in new gas fields may become less profitable “unless Norway expects that the gas can be sold for acceptable prices to other customers”. NTNU professor Magnus Korpås does not think the new end date will have quite as much to say. – We need to find more gas if we are to have something to sell in 2050. And if we have enough gas to sell, we must in any case concentrate on producing hydrogen from it, in other words purifying it. Divided reactions to the 2049 end Frode Alfheim, Industri Energi – The central point for the EU countries is that emissions should reach net zero in total by 2050. This in no way means an end date for natural gas, but that climate emissions must be cleaned up, as the European Commission recommended in 2021. Gas from the Norwegian continental shelf will be an important source of energy and industrial production long after 2050. Norway is in a very good position to meet a future with strict requirements for climate emissions. It is then that we will really get paid for the long-term work of developing carbon capture and storage, which means that, among other things, we can deliver emission-free gas from the Norwegian continental shelf in the form of blue hydrogen. Hildegunn T. Blindheim, CEO of Offshore Norway – Both Norway and the EU have set themselves ambitious climate targets and we as an industry have set ourselves ambitious targets to reduce our own emissions to close to zero in 2050. Europe will also demand natural gas after 2050, but then in a form where CO2 has been removed or is being removed in connection with combustion, something that both the European Parliament and the Council also communicate. Norway is in a special position here because we have great ambitions and the expertise to capture, transport and store CO2 on the Norwegian continental shelf. The company makes thorough analyzes of market conditions and development before a project is eventually approved. Further exploration and development of resources is important to stem the natural decline in production on the Norwegian continental shelf and thereby ensure energy access to the EU until other low-emission solutions are up and running to a sufficient extent. This is also why the EU supports further exploration and investment to deliver oil and gas to the European market. Lars Haltbrekken, SV – It is time for the Storting majority to take the climate crisis to heart, and for them to listen to the strong forces in the EU who want to phase out the use of fossil energy. The majority in the Storting risks locking Norway into a fossil fuel economy that will cost us dearly and which will produce enormous greenhouse gas emissions. Sofie Marhaug, Raudt – The richest country in the world should phase out fossil energy by 2050. So should Norway. This will require that we simultaneously manage to build up adjustable and stable power, and at the same time reduce consumption. Until now, the chorus has been built out to sun and wind without storage options. No one in either Norway or the EU can assume that the Norwegian water reservoirs are large enough to ensure sufficient balancing power. We cannot be “Europe’s green battery”. That is why it is extra strange that Germany is shutting down its last nuclear power plants these days. There is a large gap between targets and measures in climate and energy policy, both in and outside the EU. Eivind Berstad, Bellona – The government must accept that the EU will not buy the gas Norway is now investing in to extract. This must have consequences for the announcement of new areas and whether tax money is to be wasted on risky oil and gas fields. This means that we must start CO₂ capture and storage immediately to prepare for strict climate requirements on natural gas. We think there will be stricter requirements long before 2049. Frode Pleym, Greenpeace – The end date would be even earlier if it weren’t for the fact that the gas and oil lobby has great power over European politicians. There is still a gap between the EU’s new targets and Norwegian gas policy. While the EU aims to phase out the fossil fuel industry, Norway hesitates to develop it. The fact that the EU is so clearly aiming for climate neutrality must be a knock on the door for large-scale developments on the Norwegian continental shelf. Norwegian oil policy is becoming more and more far-fetched. We know from the beginning that all new production is completely contrary to what the climate scientists say is necessary to reach the climate target. Now we see that the EU will gradually close the import tap. Asbjørn Torvanger, Cicero – An end date for gas contracts can function as a framework for climate and energy policy in the EU going forward, among other things with regard to new investments in gas fields, but unless the climate goals are in any case superior to all other social goals, it is risky to decide that if 26 years then the gas (unless carbon capture has been established) must be gone. The question is whether, at that time, we have managed to develop a stable energy system in Europe based on renewable energy, how far the technological development, among other things, in terms of energy efficiency has come, what this might mean for other societal goals (including nature conservation), and what it will cost people and industry so that there will be enough acceptance and political support. In addition, gas is an important raw material for several industries. Should an end date be adopted by the EU, some of the Norwegian gas fields could be shut down faster than planned and investments in new gas fields would become less profitable, unless Norway expects that the gas can be sold at acceptable prices to other customers. Asgeir Tomasgard, NTNU – As we approach 2040 and 2050, gas demand in Europe will depend on carbon capture and storage and also on demand for hydrogen and ammonia. If the EU increases its hydrogen ambitions in the future from 2030 to 2050, new gas discoveries on the Norwegian continental shelf will presumably be beneficial for securing enough cheap energy for Europe. If demand for hydrogen does not take off as the EU expects, demand for natural gas will probably also decrease in the EU. Long-term agreements for emission-free hydrogen can be part of the key to reducing the risk for both parties. The EU countries agree that long-term contracts for fossil gas should not be extended beyond 2049. The aim is to speed up the transition to “low-carbon gases”. Illustration: The planned ammonia factory in Berlevåg. Illustration: Aker Clean Hydrogen – Once again the EU is ahead The Norwegian-British cooperation declaration on hydrogen and carbon capture was signed in London in March. The agreement was signed by Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt (Ap). Research Minister Ola Borten Moe (Sp), who in January compared the hydrogen investment to “sending power straight into the ass”, was not present. Furthermore, Equinor and German RWE are working together to replace coal power with hydrogen (produced from Norwegian gas). ZERO leader Sigrun Gjerløw Aasland believes the 2049 target is a kick in the back which should have consequences for the development of new fields on the Norwegian continental shelf, which she characterizes as “hostile to the climate and economically irresponsible”. – Once again the EU lies ahead, and now Norwegian politicians must wake up. Europe needs Norwegian gas now, but demand will fall quickly and we will be left standing with our beards in the mailbox, she says. The EU’s energy ministers also agreed that EU countries should save 15 percent of their gas consumption next year. The goal is an extension of the crisis measure last year after Russia cut off the gas supply. – No end date for Norwegian natural gas production In order to “ensure stable gas supplies from Norway”, Høgre has proposed investing in new infrastructure for gas transport, initially from the Barents Sea (Alke and Goliat) to Kirkenes. In “step two”, they will build pipes on to the Aasta Hansteen field outside Lofoten, and thus connect to the European pipe system. Storting representative for Høgre, Ove Trellevik, says the European end date “is not an end date for Norwegian natural gas production, but a reminder that the development of the continental shelf must take place within the framework of climate policy”. – There will still be a need for large quantities of natural gas from the Norwegian continental shelf after 2049, but the use of the gas in Europe will require purification and storage of CO₂ or conversion of the gas into emission-free blue hydrogen or ammonia. This shift could provide new opportunities on the Norwegian continental shelf. Norway’s income from oil and gas is estimated at NOK 1,457 billion last year. Annual consumption in Europe is 400 billion cubic meters of gas. 95 percent of this comes from natural gas. Graphic: Norsk Petroleum – Long-term agreements for hydrogen can be the key NTNU professor and energy researcher Asgeir Tomasgard believes that greater hydrogen ambitions on the European side go hand in hand with Norwegian jobs. – If the demand for hydrogen does not decrease as the EU expects, the demand for natural gas will also decrease in the EU, he says. He adds: – Long-term agreements for emission-free hydrogen can be part of the key to reducing the risk for both parties. Since the new year, the price of gas has halved, and is now traded for 42 euros/MWh on the stock exchange in the Netherlands (TTF) Photo: Michael Sohn / AP
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EU set end date for natural gas in 2049 – news Vestland
