England is reminiscent of Norway. Both have struggled for a long time. Norway last played a championship in 2000, England has been without titles since 1966. But this time – as always – the time must come. At the odds, England are favorites to win the EC. Much of the reason is an arsenal of deadly strikers and skilled technicians who are supposed to be too good to fail. As Norway knows, this way of thinking is a trap. Stars that dazzle It is a simplistic logic that a cluster of stars guarantees success. A few years ago, Norway suddenly found itself with one of the Premier League’s best playmakers in Martin Ødegaard and one of the world’s best strikers in Erling Braut Haaland. It was tempting to almost ignore the rest of the team. Norway will then reach the EC with such stars. Now the national team is the same distance, even if Haaland scores steadily in red, even with exciting wings like Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb, and even with an Alexander Sørloth who almost became the top scorer in La Liga. FORTUNGE: Norway is very strong going forward, with Erling Braut Haaland and Antonio Nusa among others. Photo: Fredrik Varfjell / NTB In the EC, England are in the same place, only that there are more stars. Optimistic experts can name Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, Ollie Watkins, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and more. The website Transfermarkt considers the stable to be the most valuable in the world with a price tag of around NOK 17 billion. The only problem is that Norway’s stable is the 11th most valuable. And Norway is not even among the 24 teams in the EC. New passport for Van Dijk Those with the most stars do not necessarily have the best team. Germany became Europe’s most successful football nation by building well-balanced team machinery. The same principle has led Didier Deschamps to pluck several big names from the French national team over the past decade, and the reward has been high morale and finals in three of the last four major championships. Like Norway, England is struggling with defence. UNCLEAR: John Stones (left) probably plays stoppage time. There is much uncertainty around him. Trent Alexander-Arnold (right) can be used in central midfield. Photo: Andrew Boyers / Reuters At left-back, the injury to Luke Shaw means right-footed Kieran Trippier can start against Serbia on Sunday night. It has been uncertain all week who will be John Stones’ partner at fullback, and Stones himself has worn the bench in Manchester City, as well as shaking off illness and injury in recent days. The favorite is Marc Guéhi, who plays for Crystal Palace. Centrally in midfield, Declan Rice’s partner could be Trent Alexander-Arnold (usually a right-back), Kobbie Mainoo (19 years old), Adam Wharton (has only played a few months in the Premier League) or Conor Gallagher (hard worker). There is no crisis, but England would like to hand out English passports to Rodri and Virgil van Dijk. But wait! With so many offensive stars, perhaps there is a solution. What if England just…attacks? The Guardiola copies This is the hope of one of England’s leading football commentators. Martin Samuel recently wrote in The Times newspaper that England coach Gareth Southgate should copy the system that Pep Guardiola uses at Manchester City. Samuel wants to squeeze all the stars into the team. He wants a 4-1-4-1 with Kane on top, Rice as anchor, plus Saka, Bellingham, Foden and Palmer or Anthony Gordon. If England are best offensively, they should play accordingly. FULL SPEED: Offensively on the field, England are star-heavy, but Bukayo Saka as one of the stars. Photo: Andrew Boyers / Reuters This is, in theory, a good argument. The best national teams of the last 20 years have copied the best tactical principles of their domestic clubs. This is one of the reasons why the country where Guardiola works has often done well. Guardiola coached Barcelona when Spain won the World Cup in 2010 and the European Championship in 2012. Spain not only took the core of players from Barcelona, but also the tactical system that Guardiola had drilled in. Six of the Spaniards who started the World Cup final in 2010 played for Barça. The Spanish won the World Cup by imitating the world’s best club team. When Germany won the World Cup in 2014, they brought in the players and tactics of their best team, Bayern Munich, who were then coached by…Pep Guardiola. This copying solves the biggest problem national team coaches have: That they lack enough time with the team to practice patterns for how to play, especially offensively. Southgate does not have one cluster of players from the same club, but he knows that almost all the stars going forward play in attacking teams that have the ball a lot: City, Arsenal, Bayern, Chelsea, Real Madrid. In theory, Southgate should attack. If only he could. Homework from the NFL But there is little indication that Southgate can build a well-functioning offensive team. Spain won two of its titles under Vicente del Bosque, who had coached Real Madrid. Southgate’s previous club was Middlesbrough in 2009, when he was relegated from the Premier League and was sacked. PRESS: Many expect gold from England coach Gareth Southgate. Photo: GLYN KIRK / AFP Southgate has based England on defensive play. Before the World Cup in 2018, he analyzed what Spain and Germany had done right, and he did not highlight the passing game, but the defense and set pieces. He went to the United States to study American football, and talked to analysts about how to free players at set pieces via blocking. England reached the semi-finals of the World Cup with 3-5-2 and smart corner moves. When they reached the European Championship final in 2021, they conceded two goals in seven games. But Southgate has never had as many attacking stars as now, and England don’t play exactly like Manchester City. The team with the EC’s best attack is still based on defence. Lump in the throat In this sense, England is reminiscent of France, who lie deep and counter, although they have brilliant players up front. Then it goes without saying that France has both a more balanced squad, and a coach in Deschamps who had led Juventus and led Monaco to the Champions League final before he took the job with the national team. Thus, England’s EC hopes are about whether Southgate gets the most out of his stars, without the team’s tactical balance going awry. England strolled through the qualifiers, but have now won one of their last five matches. In the dress rehearsal at Wembley, they lost 1–0 against Åge Hareides Island. BAD REhearsal: … makes for a good premiere, they say. England and Harry Kane lost 1–0 against Iceland in their Photo: Kin Cheung / AP The consolation is that several of the favorites have had problems before the EC: France played 0-0 against Canada, Portugal lost to Croatia, and Germany narrowly beat Greece in the dress rehearsal, before crushing Scotland on Friday. With 16 of the 24 teams progressing from the group, Southgate probably has three games to trial and error. But Southgate gets another lump in his throat when the experts list England’s star gallery and predict EC gold. England, like Norway, looks good on paper. If only it were that simple. Published 16.06.2024, at 13.02
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