Engaging with the USA: “Make Trump feel like a great statesman.” – Teknomers

In recent years, the reliability of the United States under President Trump has come into question for Europeans. This raises important implications for Brussels and Berlin. Security expert Carlo Masala advises adopting a more assertive stance towards Trump while also employing flattery.

NDR Info: Herr Masala, there are speculations about Russia resuming negotiations with Ukraine in Turkey on Monday. What is Germany’s role if Chancellor Merz publicly assesses that Russia does not want peace?

Carlo Masala: That is quite a realistic assessment, as we can see that Russia has still not provided any proposals to Ukraine. The Russian delegation attending the talks in Istanbul will be of relatively low rank and lacks a political mandate. Moreover, we observe that Russia is currently preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. These are all signs indicating that Russia is not genuinely committed to serious negotiations.

“Worst Possible Development”

NDR Info: In your book titled “When Russia Wins,” you describe various scenarios. Did you foresee the current developments?

Masala: It is a scenario based on the worst-case development. Currently, one must state that the question of a Ukrainian defeat, in the sense that the USA would give Russia everything it wants, has become quite realistic.

NDR Info: Chancellor Merz aims for the NATO meeting in June to be successful for the USA so that Trump does not completely disregard Europe. How effective is Merz’s strategy?

Masala: This strategy arises from the necessity for Europeans to realize that, without the conventional protection of the United States, they would not be able to defend themselves against Russian aggression for the next few years. Simultaneously, with the agreement on defense spending at five percent of GDP, the European NATO states would have enough funding to enhance their own defense capabilities, should the USA choose to withdraw from Europe.

So, it’s a matter of insurance for both sides: a primary attempt to keep the USA in Europe, but if that fails, to ensure sound agreements that guarantee Europe has sufficient resources to ensure its own defense capabilities.

“What Matters is What Trump Thinks”

NDR Info: Germany and many other NATO countries have invested insufficiently in military and defense for many years. The USA has criticized this strongly. During his inaugural visit to the USA, Foreign Minister Wadephul reaffirmed the five percent target. His counterpart Rubio praised Germany for finally taking action. But how resilient are these relationships?

Masala: Yes, I believe they are only snapshots. What matters is how Donald Trump views these relationships. We must not overlook that the United States wants to withdraw from Europe. Discussions are ongoing in the Pentagon about a potential withdrawal of a portion of American troops in the foreseeable future. We also have discussions in the USA about the possibility of a European being appointed as the highest NATO representative in Europe rather than an American.

All these discussions indicate that regardless of what happens at the NATO summit in June, the United States will gradually withdraw from Europe. Ultimately, the decision will rest with the American President, regardless of what the Secretary of Defense or Secretary of State might say.

“Flattery with European Self-Confidence”

NDR Info: The first personal meeting between Trump and Merz is expected to take place before the G7 summit in mid-June. How should Merz present himself in the Oval Office to be taken seriously by Trump?

Masala: He needs to appear assertive, but he should also employ the strategy that Europeans have followed for the past six months, or since Trump took office: giving Trump a consistent sense that he is a great statesman with the right vision. This flattery combined with European self-confidence is, I believe, the appropriate strategy, although it’s not a guarantee for success.

NDR Info: Can we only proceed cautiously, or can Europe also develop a long-term strategy with regard to the situation in Ukraine?

Masala: I believe the long-term strategy can be based on the assumption that the United States will exit negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and will no longer define itself as a European power.

This means the critical question is, what can and is Europe ready to do if the United States, as the primary supporter of Ukraine, steps back? Europe needs to accelerate efforts regarding defense capabilities and sovereignty. This should be the long-term strategy, focusing on Europe.

I believe Friedrich Merz expressed it correctly on election night: one can no longer rely on the USA. If Donald Trump says something today, there is no guarantee he won’t say the opposite tomorrow.

This interview was conducted by Birgit Langhammer, NDR Info. The written version has been edited and shortened.