That all the lowest price areas in Europe are located in Norway has not happened since 21 February this year. The industry magazine Europower wrote that on Wednesday. – Yes, all this week we have the cheapest electricity in all of Europe. That’s what power analyst Olav Johan Botnen at Volt Power Analytics says. Also on Thursday, Norway had the lowest electricity prices in Europe. On Friday, the average price in South-West Norway – which is the most expensive price area – will be 106 øre per kWh. In South-Eastern Norway and Western Norway, the average price will be around 87 øre, while in Central Norway and Northern Norway it will be around 27 øre/kWh. On Friday, however, prices in Finland and Sweden will be reduced to 88 øre on average from having been high in recent days. For comparison, the average price in Denmark (120 øre), Germany (130 øre) and Poland (150 øre) will be on Friday. Expensive in Sweden The fact that Norway has the lowest electricity prices on the continent this week is largely due to the fact that Sweden is no longer the cheapest. There, prices have shot up to almost 130 øre per kWh in the last couple of days. – Our neighboring country Sweden has some problems that need to be fixed this week. Olav Johan Botnen is a power analyst at Volt Power Analytics. Photo: Erik Wiig Andersen / news Among other things, production at the power plant at Luleälven in northern Sweden has been reduced as a result of maintenance. – This means that the prices in Sweden are quite expensive these days, says Botnen. Already on Friday, the prices at söta bror drop to around 88 øre. Further south on the continent, there is currently little wind, and the solar power does not make up for the lack of wind. Therefore, many of our neighbors in Europe have to buy expensive gas power to meet their energy needs. Expensive winter ahead – but it could be the last The question many are asking, however, is what the price of electricity will be when the summer heat leaves us in the autumn. Energy analyst Botnen is not very optimistic. – For the winter, Eastern Norway’s power prices are traded in the range of 115 to 145 øre/kWh. From here it can go either way, depending on how the weather goes throughout the summer and through the winter. And precisely the weather will be a decisive factor, says Botnen. He considers it 20 percent likely that we will have a weather-wise cold winter over the continent. In that case, it will result in high gas prices, which in turn spill over into the rest of the power market. – At the same time, there is an 80 percent chance that it will be a normal year, or milder. At the same time, he says that we are going into the coming winter with better conditions than last year. Among other things, the levels in the water reservoirs in southern Norway are higher than at the same time last year, while in northern Norway they are slightly below last year’s level, says Botnen. But the absence of the Russian gas also affects the price. Large-scale gas development will not last the winter After Russia invaded Ukraine in the spring of 2022, a number of countries introduced sanctions against the neighbor to the east. This meant, among other things, limiting the import of Russian gas. Before the war, Russia accounted for 40 per cent of all gas in Europe, while now the figure is down to 10-15 per cent, says Botnen. Therefore, the construction of so-called import terminals has been intensified in order to receive more liquefied gas (LNG). Liquefied gas, so-called LNG, has been the key to the European power market handling the loss of Russian gas. Here lies the LNG ship Gnasha outside Tokyo in 2017. Photo: Issei Kato / Reuters But this work is not finished before the winter cold sets in. – Gas stocks in Europe are full, but they don’t last very long. They are quickly emptied in a couple of months of cold weather. But the power analyst believes that next winter will be the last with abnormally high prices. – When we have finished next winter, the price next summer will probably return to normal, below 70 øre. But it depends on how cold the winter will be. – But that we will return to a normal situation, that is quite certain. Russian gas probably back on the world market in 2026 Although Europe has cut off imports of Russian gas, it will find its way to other countries within a few years. – Some of the gas will also be sent through pipes to new countries, such as India and China, says Botnen. The offshore ship FSRU Neptune stands behind a container showing a map where the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline runs from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Photo: JOHN MACDOUGALL / AFP During 2026, it is expected that all Russian gas will be back on the world market, much via LNG ships. – But then there will be plenty of gas from other suppliers, which in turn flows into Europe and other countries. Then you get a new balance that is more stable than the current one – and lower electricity prices, concludes Botnen. news clarifies: In the first edition of the article, it could appear that Norway had the cheapest electricity in Europe this coming Friday as well. The correct thing is that Norway has had the cheapest electricity this week, but price area NO2 (Southwest Norway) is passed by Finland and the three northernmost price areas in Sweden on Friday.
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Energy analyst believes in expensive electricity prices this winter as well – news Nordland
