– Both the nursery school and the school are built for the future. Therefore, we must have available capacity today if we are to fill this with housing all the way, says Lillian Skjærvik. She is mayor of the Labor Party in Elverum, and shows off new buildings along Trysilveien. The town in Innlandet currently has 21,809 inhabitants, but will grow by 1,000 new river basins in just under three years, the mayor says enthusiastically. Labor mayor Lillian Skjærvik has sat behind the wheel to show that Elverum has built space for new residents. Photo: Alfred Skartveit Helskog / news It was the Eastlander who first told about the growth plans. Statistics Norway (SSB) tells a different story. Their forecasts say that Elverum will grow by 238 new inhabitants by 2030. Almost a quarter of the mayor’s target, and spread over three more years. But the mayor believes Elverum can beat Statistics Norway’s forecast. – So, when I meet Oslo residents, and this with statistics and all this comes up, they say that there will be a certain death in rural Norway and the interior. We will not participate in the slow death, says the mayor firmly. Want to solve economic problems with growth Norwegian municipalities across the country are moving towards fewer children and more elderly people. At the same time, costs are increasing, which puts pressure on the municipal economy. This autumn, the municipal politicians who cut offers to foot the bill have become unpopular. But Elverum is one of several municipalities that will defy the population forecast, and is betting on growing out of the problems in the next few years. Municipalities receive money from the state for each resident they have. If the city reaches the target of 1,000 new residents, the state will give NOK 70 million extra to the municipal coffers in grants. Mayor Lillian Skjærvik believes it is right to set an ambitious goal. – That’s how it should be. We must be at the front, she says. Researcher: Wrong strategy nine times out of ten – It is the minority of municipalities that get it right. It is difficult, because the municipalities are fighting for people that all other municipalities also want, says researcher Knut Vareide. He researches regional development at the Telemarksforsking foundation. – I think it is a general problem that the municipalities are over-optimistic in their planning, says Vareide. GET WRONG NINE OUT OF TEN TIMES: – The vast majority will slowly depopulate, says researcher Knut Vareide about the future of municipal Norway. Photo: Sindre Thoresen Lønnes The vast majority of municipalities have to count on the population forecasts to hold up, and depopulation to continue, according to him: – If a municipality plans for something that has a 10 percent chance of success, then in nine out of ten cases they will plan error. That is why more municipalities should take the demographic forecasts into account, and rather build nursing homes than schools, believes Vareide. – All Norwegian municipalities will need a much greater effort in care for the elderly in the future, at the same time that the vast majority will have fewer children going to school and kindergarten in the coming decades. Thinks Elverum has an advantage But Elverum can take advantage of some special advantages, believes Vareide. – They have a large public sector within hospitals, folk colleges and defence. And they had a very high housing construction rate last year, so that will help, he says. Vareide points out that Statistics Norway’s population projections are not written in stone. In the center of Elverum, Viktor Nybråten stops for a chat. He believes the mayor’s goal can be achieved in three years. Viktor Nybråten hopes more people will become river wanderers in the coming years. Photo: Alfred Helskog / news – I would recommend people to move here. It is a nice place to live. And yes, a lot happens here, he says to news. Published 05.11.2024, at 12.17
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Elverum mayor believes she has the solution to avoid “slow death”
