The Labor Party is below 20 percent support for the first time. Lower than during the Metoo shock. The center party in the 5th century. Conservative Party over 30 percent and larger than both government parties combined. Although the changes are within the margin of error, the numbers are still dramatic What is happening? These are crisis figures for the government. Both what happens, and the way it happens. There is power in the electricity revolt The government has also lost control of the electricity debate after the summer and has left the starting block behind. The electricity issue overshadows everything else and deprives the government of something that is almost as important as voters: The government is unable to set the agenda for its own projects. Crisis management, power support discussions and war – anything other than what the government was elected on – takes all the oxygen. On the opposite side of the political middle line, voters flock to the Conservative Party in particular. Solberg’s party in the 30s is rare. Source: Norstat for news and Aftenposten Switching sides, not just parties Voters switch sides to a greater extent, not just parties. After the election victory, Ap’s dream of a majority government failed. In the time after SV left Hurdalssjøen, Ap struggled with the fact that voters would rather vote for the more radical parties that wanted a change of government last autumn. The bloc score on election night was 100–68 to Støre’s side. Now it is 78-91. (Patient Focus was elected to the Storting last year, but does not have a mandate for this measurement). In August 2014, Erna Solberg’s government was as old as Støre’s is now. Then the bourgeois still held the majority in the parliament. They did that until the budget row in December of that year. The prime minister, the energy minister and the finance minister are trying to find a way out of the electricity crisis. The voters are not impressed so far. Photo: Stig Jaarvik In the first months, some Ap voters missed a red and radical policy. Perhaps they feared that Vedum would drag the party towards the centre. Perhaps red Ap voters would give their vote to SV who negotiated important victories for the left in the state budget before Christmas. Or Rødt, who has raised the bar for many important issues for the trade union movement. Ap’s voter loss to the left started in October with 31,000 voters and temporarily reached the bottom in February with 85,000 voters. Now in August Ap loses a total of 42,000 voters to SV+Rødt+MDG. Ap’s problem In October, Ap drew voters from the Conservative Party. In the first two months, the party did not lose significantly to the Conservative Party and FRP in total. At the turn of the year, 50,000 voters from Ap went to the two bourgeois parties, in May there were significantly fewer. Now in August, there are suddenly 80,000 voters who go to the two bluest parties. Almost twice as many go to the smaller parties on the left. It is a completely different voter turnout. Both in numbers and not least in politics. It is natural that parties lose the most voters to the “fence”. People who voted for them in the last election are now unsure what they will vote for. They don’t want to support “their” party, but they also don’t want to vote for someone else. Ap began to struggle with voters sitting on the fence around the turn of the year. In the period March-June, more Ap voters went to the fence than to the three red or two blue parties. What is very special now in August is that there are more Ap voters who go to the bourgeois side than sit on the fence. The largest group leaving Ap now does not want radical politics. They have no doubts. They will regularly vote for the prime minister who was thrown out less than a year ago. It is extra special when the Conservatives, neither in the electricity debate nor the fuel debate, have settled on clear or simple solutions. The Center Party’s problem The Center Party’s problem is about the same thing, but has a slightly different outcome. Sps voters do not go to the left that much. The cannibalization between Ap and Sp is very small after the summer. Precisely in the matter of electricity, the two parties view a number of issues differently, especially the international power market. It is strange that the transition between the two parties is not greater. In August, 1,200 voters go from Ap to Sp. In the months April-June, an average of 16,000 voters switched from Sp to Ap. It is the leak to the Conservative Party and the FRP that is SP’s main problem. And it’s growing. SP built much of its success and election campaign on attracting bourgeois voters. Those who did not want the previous government, but did not want to vote Ap, could safely vote for Vedum. It was an important part of the prime ministerial candidate stunt. Our calculations show that the Center Party picked up 45,000 of the Conservative Party’s and Frps’ 2017 voters at the election last autumn. After the 2021 election, Vedum continued to attract fresh Conservative and Frp voters beyond the late autumn. At the turn of the year, things turned around. About 56,000 SP voters would then vote for the Conservative Party or FRP. In other words, more than the estimated catch. In February and March there were fewer voters. Now in August, it has increased to a record 83,000 voters. Again: More people than ever will switch sides. In addition, 98,000 SP voters are now on the fence. Overall, this means that 163,000 of the government party’s voters now prefer Solberg and Listhaug to rule the country. Less than a year after the Solberg government was overthrown. In addition, 156,000 of the voters of Støre and Vedum are on the fence. Creating enthusiasm for all these voters while the power situation takes all the focus is demanding to say the least. Støre’s best opportunity to take charge of something himself is probably this autumn’s state budget. There the room for action is very limited. And it has to go to the Storting to get a majority.
ttn-69
Downturn – Speech
