Before the talks between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in San Francisco today – also called the most important meeting of the year – China and the US agree on one thing: To turn down expectations. The most important thing is to talk together to avoid misunderstandings leading the world’s two most powerful rivals into a conflict. Neither the US nor China want that. The presidential plane Air Force One took Biden to San Francisco before the meeting with Xi. Photo: AP Taiwan kicks off US election year But if there is no hope of a breakthrough, why are they talking now? The answer is that China can kick-start the American election year 2024. That happens with the presidential election in Taiwan on January 13. If the candidate from the party that wants independence for Taiwan wins, as they did in 2020, tensions with China will increase. Tension will also increase across the Pacific in the direction of the United States. Republicans and Democrats will compete to provide the strongest possible support for the small self-governing and democratic island. Only two days after the election in Tawian, the election year in the USA rolls into action with nomination elections and public meetings in Iowa followed by New Hampshire and South Carolina. China’s supreme leader Xi Jinping is not a democrat, but he knows that Biden is unlikely to have much time to listen to Beijing in 2024. Nor does anyone in Xi’s leadership believe what will be said about China in a heated election campaign be particularly positive. In the US, the debate about China has become a competition to take the hardest line. In San Francisco, the talks will therefore be about agreeing on a framework for what the US and China can continue to talk about at a lower level. A little more sheltered from the noise of the election campaign. Xi Jinping has been to San Francisco before. Photo of a 31-year-old Xi posing in front of the Golden Gate gets noticed on X/Twitter. Photo: @tongbingxue / X Competition before conflict People in the White House staff news has been in contact with, highlight two K’s to describe the meeting: Competition before conflict. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies must go through an extensive and demanding menu. The talks are going to be tough and difficult, says the American side. From China, it is a prerequisite that Biden states early in the talks that they still support the “one China policy”. So that Taiwan is part of China. Nothing really other than repeating what is the official US line. If that happens, the US and China must agree to talk about: The power struggle in the Asia-Pacific region. Disarmament Economy and trade Street artist in front of a blocked street in San Francisco. Photo: Anders Tvegård / news Most important meeting in San Francisco since 1945 Xi and Biden will talk on the sidelines of the APEC meeting. US Vice President Kamala Harris hosts as leaders from 21 Pacific countries and economies come to her hometown to discuss global challenges. The San Francisco Chronicle describes the meeting as the most important international event in the city since 1945. The APEC countries together account for 62 percent of the world’s global GDP. The journey to this year’s APEC has been a fragile affair. China took the longest time to confirm that Xi is actually coming to San Francisco. In a dinner invitation, where American business leaders have paid 40,000 dollars per table, the host did not dare to write that Xi would be the guest of honor. Instead, they wrote “dinner with a prominent Chinese leader”. In case Xi were to send his prime minister or a vice president. The US, for its part, has stepped up sanctions against China at the same time as it has negotiated details to get Xi to travel to the US. In particular, the United States’ refusal to export advanced computer chips and other high technology creates frustration in Beijing. The US and China are putting a difficult year behind them. It all came to a head when the US shot down what it said was a Chinese spy balloon on February 4. Photo: RANDALL HILL / Reuters Enough unrest in the world The talks are taking place at a time when there is a sense of increased vulnerability all over the world. Russia is also a Pacific country and a member of APEC, but Putin is not coming. He sends his Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. The war in Ukraine and the international arrest warrant for Putin would complicate a class picture together with other heads of government from APEC. Both the US and China have a strategic interest in preventing the war between Israel and Hamas from developing into a regional war. China needs secure supplies of oil and gas. They see the richest Arab countries as stable and strong purchasing markets. China has relations with Iran that the US sees as useful for calming the situation in the Middle East. The same applies to North Korea, which is equipping itself with nuclear weapons and threatening neighboring countries such as Japan and South Korea. There are also other openings in San Francisco. Efforts are also being made to arrange a meeting between Xi and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the meeting. Bicycle police contribute to security around the APEC meeting. Photo: Anders Tvegård / news “Issues we agree more on” Xi and Biden will probably have to go through most of the difficult things first. If they succeed, there are some candidates for “issues we agree on more”: Climate Protection of biological diversity AI and a regulatory framework for artificial intelligence Xi and Biden probably feel a responsibility not to further increase the tension in world politics. It is easier if expectations are low.
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Don’t expect too much – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
