In this case you can read about: Before the war, the tiny town of Rafah housed 280,000 people. Today there are around 1.5 million. Most of them have been displaced from their homes in the north of the Gaza Strip. Now people are preparing to evacuate once again, uncertain where. The UN, EU and USA have expressed great concern about a ground operation in Rafah. Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide fears a bloodbath. – We will take the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is the last bastion, says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ABC News. Benjamin Netanyahu is clear that Israel will enter Rafah, thereby defying strong warnings from the United States. Photo: Ronen Zvulun / AFP According to Netanyahu, the military operation in Rafah must be completed before Ramadan, which is March 10. news has spoken to three experts about the upcoming military operation. Why Rafah? Rafah lies in the very south of the Gaza Strip and borders Egypt. The city has been shielded from the worst fighting, although it has been exposed to several Israeli air strikes. The ground battles have largely been in the north, but Israel has been open all along that they want to expand the ground operations southwards. From a military perspective, Rafah is seen as a central last point for Israel’s operations in Gaza. Sigbjørn Halsne is lieutenant colonel and head of the section for land forces at the Norwegian Military Academy. He believes the purpose of entering Rafah is to destroy the last Hamas military units in Gaza, find Hamas leaders and the underground tunnels. Halsne believes that this city is extra important precisely because it borders Egypt. Much of the humanitarian aid in Gaza comes from Egypt via Rafah. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell fears that a military operation here could make it even more difficult to get critical emergency aid into the Gaza Strip. Photo: Ibraheem Abu Mustafa / Reuters – The smuggling into Gaza has probably gone through the Egyptian border. The operation aims, among other things, to find these tunnels, says Halsne. Also, Hamas expert at the University of Oslo, Erik Skare, believes that the tunnel system in Rafah is connected to Egypt, and is part of the reason why Rafah is so important. Hamas soldiers are hiding in the tunnels, and Israel’s stated aim in the war has always been to “crush Hamas”. Recently, the Israeli army (IDF) claimed to have found a major tunnel network under the headquarters of UNRWA in Gaza City, according to Reuters. Hamas in Rafah The fact that there are over a million people in Rafah, Skare believes, can be an advantage for Hamas. – Hamas has an interest in hiding among civilians, and does so actively. The Al-Qassam Brigade does not wear uniforms when they are in an exchange of fire, for example, says Skare. International law expert and conflict researcher Cecilie Hellestveit calls the operation in Rafah a natural conclusion, but also the most difficult of the IDF’s operations in the Gaza Strip. – During the humanitarian pause in November, Hamas regrouped in the south. This means that the framework surrounding this military operation is particularly demanding. Hamas is bid. Counterproductive warfare? But Hamas expert Skare believes that a military operation in Rafah will in any case have greater humanitarian consequences than military ones. – Israel has gone for a military solution rather than a diplomatic one. But nothing indicates that Israel is any closer to achieving its military goal, which is to crush Hamas, says Skare. Lieutenant-Colonel Halsne is surprised that Israel has so far carried out a one-dimensional operation, and believes that this could be counterproductive in the long term. – The thing that surprises me most about the war is that Israel does not use any means other than the military. – Israel has largely allowed Hamas to get out the narrative they want, which is that Israel is the great aggressor. Surveys show that support for Hamas has increased after the terrorist attack on 7 October, and the war that followed. Palestinian Hamas supporters demonstrated in the occupied West Bank in support of the Palestinians in Gaza in December. Photo: Hazem Bader / AFP Where should they evacuate? The big question now is where the 1.5 million who are in Rafah will evacuate. – The IDF is now being asked to draw up a plan for how they will achieve both parts. To go in and destroy the Hamas cells in Rafah, but at the same time secure the civilian population, says Halsne. Satellite data that the BBC has analyzed shows that more than half of the buildings in Gaza have been destroyed, and with ongoing ground battles in the north, it is today very limited what physical and practical possibilities Israel has. – The international community will not accept taking them to the north, says Hellestveit. – Taking them into Israel is not something the Israeli public will accept easily. In addition, there is a risk of getting Hamas affiliates into Israel. And to evacuate the Palestinians to Egypt, Egypt says no. According to the international law expert, it is also on the edge with the Genocide Convention, and dangerous in terms of security policy. According to Skare, the area of al-Mawasi, a coastal strip west of Rafah, is the only alternative. But the Hamas expert calls it a bad alternative, because the area is far too small for so many people. In addition, Skare is worried about how the evacuation will be carried out, and points out that several civilians were killed when they evacuated from the north. Over a million of those in Rafah have already been driven from their homes. Now they have to evacuate once more. Photo: Ibraheem Abu Mustafa / Reuters – How much must the civilian population suffer in a war? – If you can militarily justify your attacks, you can do things that expose yourself or the enemy, say the civilian population, in ways that you are not allowed to do if the war is less intense, says Hellestveit. – But with the framework that now surrounds Rafah, it is demanding to do this legally. Hellestveit believes it is important to remember that there are two parties here, and that Hamas also has a responsibility to protect civilians in Rafah. Arms support is at stake How the operation is carried out, can have huge economic consequences for Israel, says international law expert Cecilie Hellestveit. In January, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) took up the case in which Israel is blamed for genocide in Gaza. The ICJ concluded almost unanimously that there is a risk of genocide in Gaza, and demanded that Israel do more to prevent genocide from taking place in the war. If Israel does not do enough to ensure the safety of the civilian population, this could lead to Israel losing almost all of its arms support, says Hellestveit. – If Israel violates these requirements, other states are obliged to take action, for example to stop arms sales to them, including the United States. – It affects what kind of travel Israel will have access to in the middle of the operation, and afterwards, says Hellestveit. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now asked the IDF to submit a detailed plan for the military operation and how to evacuate civilians.
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Does not think invasion will secure Israel says – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
