Jair Bolsonaro (67) has been president of Brazil for four years. The years have been described as a disaster for the indigenous population, the rainforest and democracy in the vast country. Bolsonaro has become known for calling a female congresswoman “too ugly to be raped” and that he would rather his son “died in an accident than that he was gay”. – We have to stop being a country of gay bastards, he is said to have said during the corona pandemic. Brazil was one of the countries hardest hit – 680,000 people died. So how can he now be re-elected? The designer Eulalia Maia has been doing well under Bolsonaro’s rule. She thinks he has good policies and votes for him even though he has said ugly things. Photo: Eirik Tufteland Kroken / news Paying tribute to Bolsonaro She is a designer, artist and sells the most expensive jewelery at the Sunday market at Ipanema beach in Rio de Janeiro. Eulalia Maia belongs to the upper middle class in a society that is one of the world’s most divided between rich and poor. Maia believes Bolsonaro is a good president. – He does a lot for healthcare and education. For people’s welfare. I think he is a good candidate, she says to news’s journalists in Brazil. Eulalia Maia’s rings and jewelery are well known to those who go to the Sunday market in Ipanema. Photo: Eirik Tufteland Kroken / news For her, health, education and safety are the most important things before the election. – There has been much less corruption. Unfortunately, there are many corrupt people here in our Brazil, and I believe that things have gotten much better under Bolsonaro, she says. Also support from women One of Norway’s leading Brazil experts is called Torkjell Leira. He explains that Bolsonaro is a master at connecting with his voters. According to Leira, the direct and honest way in which the president speaks makes Bolsonaro stand out from other politicians who are perceived as lying and fake. Social geographer Torkjell Leira has written a book about the sitting president Jair Bolsonaro. The Brazil expert is a senior adviser at the Climate House at the Natural History Museum. Photo: Siw Pessar / Res Publica In connection with the new book “The Art of Killing a Democracy”, Leira interviewed a female Bolsonaro voter: – The fact that he spoke so disparagingly about women, she thought was a sign that he was honest and thus an argument for voting for him, he says and continues: – And that applies to a lot, also Bolsonaro’s statements about racism, about his desire to return to the military dictatorship and that he thinks gays and lesbians are an abomination. There are quite a few people in Brazil who still think like him in these areas. Convicted and acquitted Now there are presidential elections and among 11 candidates the choice is in reality between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Lula da Silva (76). Lula da Silva is well ahead of the elections in Brazil. Photo: AMANDA PEROBELLI / Reuters Lula led the country between 2003 and 2011. He lifted millions of people out of poverty through the Bolsa Familia program, but has also struggled with allegations of corruption. In 2016, he was arrested and later convicted in two trials. After serving 580 days in prison, the country’s highest court annulled the sentences against him and he could stand for election again in 2022. – Now Lula is coming In the largest favela in Rio de Janeiro, approximately 100,000 people live. Thousands of houses are built close together with narrow side streets on a long and steep slope. The favela is called Rocinha and has been a more or less lawless area for several decades. About 100,000 people live in Rocinha. Photo: Eirik Tufteland Kroken / news We meet 22-year-old Carlos Eduardo Oliveira and 26-year-old Renata Christina Guimarães in the main street Via Apia. Both are parents of a child, and both are firmly decided on who they will vote for: – My vote goes to Lula. I am betting one hundred percent on him, not on Bolsonaro, says Renata. – Now Lula is coming. He has made some mistakes in the past, but everyone can make mistakes. Now he comes up with new ideas. He wants to develop the favelas and improve people’s lives, that’s a very good promise, that’s why I’m voting for him, says Carlos. Renata and Carlos are clear that they believe Brazil needs a president from the left. Photo: Eirik Tufteland Kroken / news The battle for the poor To win the election, both candidates need support from the huge part of the population that has absolutely the least. More than 33 million Brazilians now live on the brink of starvation, and the man who engages this group of voters has a good chance of winning. One week before the election, Lula is far ahead of Bolsonaro in the big IPEC poll. 48 percent of those polled say they will vote for the challenger against 31 percent for Bolsonaro, according to Reuters. Although in the months before the election, Bolsonaro has launched “Auxilio Brasil”, the Brazil aid, which provides a monthly payment from the government of just over NOK 1,200, it has yielded little results in the measurements. For several years, Jair Bolsonaro has cast doubt on the electoral system in Brazil. Will he protest if he loses the election? Photo: SERGIO LIMA / AFP What if he loses? – There are three options for my future, Bolsonaro is said to have said about the election in 2022 and stated: – Be arrested, be killed or win. – So what happens if he loses? Commentators worldwide are now afraid that “Bolsonaro’s January 6” could be worse than Trump’s in 2021. “Unfortunately, there are many indications that this is exactly what will happen,” says Torkjell Leira. The social geographer has no doubts about the comparison: – Jair Bolsonaro, like Trump, has spent many years undermining trust in the electoral system. He has hardly let a month go by without him spreading falsehoods or outright lies about the electoral system and saying that it cannot be trusted. So, unfortunately, most indications are that he will protest an election that he does not win himself, says Leira. – And what happens then? – He will probably encourage his followers to protest in the streets, perhaps some of the most extreme will take up arms, and then there will be violent clashes, says the Brazil expert. “The ultimate test” One of the differences between Trump and Bolsonaro is that the Brazilian president’s largest and most important voter group are soldiers and officers in the military. Leira believes we will soon see how strong the ties between the president and the generals are. In his book, he writes: “The ultimate test of Bolsonaro’s strength and ties to the military is what will happen the day he, or a similar candidate, loses a presidential election. Will the authoritarian survive? Will the defense accept a budget cut? Will the 6,000 military personnel in the state apparatus accept being removed from their respective positions? Will the supporters protest violently, as we saw during the storming of Congress in the United States in January 2021? – Yes, I think so, the author himself answers the latter question. Difficult in deep crises Benedicte Bull is a political scientist and professor at UiO, and has researched social development in Latin America. As it stands now, she does not think the generals will interfere: – I think there will be episodes of violence and demonstrations, but I don’t think the military will stand behind Bolsonaro if Lula wins by a good margin. Therefore, I believe that Bolsonaro must accept defeat, if it does not happen as soon as possible, she writes in an e-mail to news. Benedicte Bull does not think the military will support Bolsonaro if Lula wins by a large margin. Photo: Anja Bergersen / UIO Bull believes there are several reasons why Bolsonaro, who represents the far right, apparently gets one term as president. She refers to rising food prices, unemployment and the fact that people want Lula back: – Bolsonaro has a group of core voters, but his victory in 2018 depended as much on a strong opposition to the Workers’ Party (PT), which ruled for 12 years, as that the authoritarian right-wing populism had established itself as a political movement. – Could a loss for Bolsonaro indicate that the far-right wave we have seen in several countries has suffered a setback? – In any case, it suggests that it can be difficult to maintain support for authoritarian right-wing populism through deep crises, and especially if you fail to portray the causes of the crisis as an enemy and yourself as the most important rescue. Bolsonaro has not been able to do that either in relation to the pandemic or the economic downturn, says Bull. Choice between two evils In Brazil, it is compulsory to vote in elections. Many will therefore either vote blank or feel pressured to vote for someone they don’t really like. We meet actor Rafael Bloc in Rio de Janeiro. In the election campaign, he is paid to advertise with flags and stickers for Jair Bolsonaro, but he himself believes it is a choice between two evils. – Today, Brazil votes for the person who is the least bad. Wherever there are politicians, there is corruption. This is something the whole world should know, because it does damage in all areas: education, sports and public health. The streets of Rio de Janeiro have been filled with campaign slogans, flags and people advertising for the various presidential candidates. Rafael Bloc is one of them. Photo: Eirik Tufteland Kroken / news
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Does he accept to lose the election? – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
