On Wednesday morning, DNB publishes its first financial outlook for the year. The forecasts show that the country’s largest financial group predicts that the pace of the economy on the mainland will weaken in the first half of the year. The reason is, among other things, that people will spend less money on consumption. 2022 was a miserable year for households in a financial sense, where everything went up in price and the vast majority were less able to afford it. For 2023, DNB believes that the outlook looks brighter. Increased food prices The comparison of food prices and the wage trend says something about whether you get more, less or the same amount for your money. When the development of food prices is higher than the development of wages, it means that food has become more expensive. Both figures are averages for the specified period. Read more about sources and reservations here. How much food prices have increased in the past year, compared to wage development Food Dec 2021 – Dec 2022 Wage development Forecast for 2022 The bank predicts that wages will rise by 4.8 per cent in this year’s wage settlement, slightly more than the growth in consumer prices, which is estimated at 4.6 percent. – Although wages will rise more than in a long time, they will roughly keep pace with price inflation. Real wages will be roughly flat this year, says chief economist Kjersti Haugland to news. On Thursday, Nordea published its first financial outlook for the year. The bank expects somewhat stronger real wage growth than DNB. Expecting more interest rate medicine from the central bank Norges Bank signaled in its latest monetary policy report from December that interest rates will rise further in March. DNB also predicts that there will be an interest rate hike in March. In addition, another interest rate jump from the central bank is expected before the summer, and that the interest rate peak will level off at 3.25 per cent. Policy rate in percent The policy rate is set eight times a year by Norges Bank. The policy interest rate governs the interest rates in the banks, and affects your housing costs. The aim of raising the interest rate is for the high prices to come down again. The forecast tells us how Norges Bank thinks interest rates will develop in the future. Read more about sources and reservations here. A higher policy rate means increased expenses if you have a mortgage. Interest rates will remain the same until 2024, if the forecasters are right. Before it is reduced again in the first quarter of next year. Expects that the fall in house prices will soon be over House prices fell sharply last autumn since the peak in August 2022, and at the end of December were 1.5 per cent higher than a year ago, according to statistics from Eiendom Norge. House prices are now expected to fall further until the month of March. – From there we expect prices to flatten out, and that they will rise moderately for the rest of the year, says Haugland. The bank has then calculated with so-called seasonally adjusted figures, which are an expression of what is considered normal price development. In 2023, DNB expects house prices to fall by 2.6 per cent, measured as an average against last year’s prices. The way the figure is calculated means that part of this fall has already been taken out in practice through the fall in prices last autumn since the peak in August. For 2024 and 2025, DNB expects house prices to rise between 2-2.5 per cent. The bank predicts that the housing price peak from August last year will be repeated in 2025. Photo: Vegard Wivestad Grøtt / NTB scanpix Predicts that unemployment will increase somewhat Statistics Norway published figures from its labor force survey (AKU) on Thursday morning. It shows that 3.4 per cent of the workforce was unemployed in December last year. The figure is identical to the unemployment that DNB predicts for 2023 (AKU) 101,000 people were unemployed in December, according to Statistics Norway’s method of measurement. This is 10,000 more than when unemployment was at its lowest point after the pandemic, in April 2022. Statistics Norway and NAV measure unemployment in different ways. While NAV measures those who are registered as completely unemployed in the NAV system, Statistics Norway’s measurements are based on telephone interviews, as unemployment statistics are defined internationally. More about the differences can be read here.
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DNB predicts that wages will rise more than in 15 years – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
