Why is the opposition in France so angry that they have tabled motions of no confidence? Last week, President Macron and the government forced through a controversial pension reform with a decree instead of attempting a vote in the National Assembly. It increases the retirement age from 62 to 64. CHAOS IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY: Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne was shocked by the opposition’s behavior when she announced that the government decided to force through the pension reform by decree, according to section 49.3. Photo: PASCAL ROSSIGNOL / Reuters While the pension reform is unpopular in itself, this way of getting it through has provoked further. The far-left party La France insoumise, “The Indomitable France”, which has been at the forefront of protests against the reform throughout, calls it “anti-democratic” and “authoritarian”. The leader of the French Communist Party believes it is a “shame for democracy”. Is that right, then? Was it undemocratic and authoritarian? Well. Paragraph 49-3 of the French constitution allows for laws to be passed in this way. It is a section that has been used just under a hundred times since it was introduced in 1958, and in that sense it should perhaps not cause such a big stir. THE NUMBER OF THE MIND: Demonstration in Nantes, West of France, on Thursday evening. Photo: STEPHANE MAHE / Reuters The opposition still believes it is hair-raising to push through such a controversial law in this way. When a large majority of French voters are against the reform, and it did not seem possible to get a majority in the National Assembly, it lacks complete democratic legitimacy, say the opponents. If one can formally argue that democracy was safeguarded when the law was trumped through, there is little doubt that it is unpopular, also among the voters. In a poll carried out for the weekly magazine Le Point on Sunday, 74 per cent of those questioned answered that they believe the government must resign because of this. Could the French government be overthrown today? Yes, in theory it could happen. The representatives in the National Assembly will vote on two motions of no confidence this afternoon: One motion from Marine Le Pen’s party Nasjonal Samling, and one from a group of independent representatives. Most people reckon that it is the independents’ proposals that have the greatest chance of success. How likely is that? Initially, it is not very likely, but in the tense political climate France has ended up with now, it is probably wise to keep all possibilities open. A motion of no confidence requires an absolute majority to be passed. Today, this means that 287 representatives must vote in favour. POLICE PROTECTION: The conservative Republican party will be decisive in the vote of no confidence today. On Sunday, party leader Eric Ciotti’s premises were vandalized by protesters who demanded that the party help bring down the government. Photo: VALERY HACHE / AFP The Republican Party’s 61 representatives will be decisive. The leader, Eric Ciotti, has said that there is no question of bringing down the government in this way. Four of his party colleagues have so far declared that they disagree. As calculations show that 26-27 of the Republicans must vote against the leader’s will, a lot is needed. But the pressure from the streets is fierce, and the pension reform is unpopular among a large majority of voters, so it is not good to say where the representatives will end up when the votes are cast. DETERMINED: Emmanuel Macron believes it is absolutely essential to reform the pension system in France Photo: MICHEL EULER / AFP What about Macron, can he be overthrown? No, the president will remain in office until the next presidential election in 2027. It still remains to be seen what kind of opportunity he has to get his policy through for the rest of the period. Important legislative proposals and measures are due, including on climate policy and immigration. Macron has gambled that the French will gradually accept this reform. He believes that it is absolutely crucial for the future of the pension system to implement this, and he also claims that the economic situation in the world today makes it even more crucial – it is France’s economic credibility that is at stake. Are more demonstrations and strikes expected, or will this ebb away? Already today, the country has to deal with several strikes, including in the transport sector. New nationwide protests have been announced next Thursday. In addition, the authorities expect several demonstrations across the country in connection with the motions of no confidence today. The trade union movement warns that they can no longer guarantee peaceful protests. Is there a revolution underway? While images and slogans about guillotines are unlikely to be taken completely literally, there is no shortage of concrete warnings that the demonstrations do not necessarily remain peaceful, as they have been by and large so far. GUILLOTINE: King Macron must listen to the people. Photo: CLEMENT MAHOUDEAU / AFP One of the leaders of the radical trade union movement CGT formulated it clearly in the newspaper Libération on Saturday: “The government has chosen to throw all rules overboard by resorting to section 49.3. Well, that means there are no rules anymore.” For the trade union movement, it has been crucial to ensure peaceful demonstrations. Now several of them are warning that it could become more difficult, given the anger of the members. The leader of the left-wing radical party Indomitable France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon believes the reform decision was an attack on democracy and that it could have serious consequences: “If you don’t want violence, you have to accept democracy,” he said in an interview on television channel LCI on Sunday afternoon.
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