The case in summary In a recent opinion poll conducted by Norstat for news, the Labor Party in Bodø received a support of 17.4 per cent. This is a decrease of 9.9 percentage points from the election in 2019. The Conservative Party receives 37.8 per cent support. In the survey, they achieve a majority together with the FRP and Venstre. Experts believe former fisheries minister Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen (H) has an advantage because he is known among voters. The Labor Party in Bodø believes that governance wear and tear and the noise around Ap in government can play a role in the measurement. Both political commentator in news, Tone Sofie Aglen, and political commentator Stein Sneve in Avisa Nordland believe that the Conservative Party can become the largest in Nordland for the first time. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAi. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. There was little progress for the Labor Party when news presented a county poll in Nordland last week. But the figures in the recent Bodø survey are discouraging for the party, believes political commentator Stein Sneve in Avisa Nordland. – I don’t know if it is right to use the word disaster. It is a choice and the word disaster should perhaps be reserved for more dramatic things. But clearly this is discouraging. They are prone to make their worst choice in history, he says. The survey shows that Ap receives a support of 17.4 per cent. This is a decrease of 9.9 percentage points from the 2019 election, which is so far the worst Labor Party has ever performed. They also lose four mandates since the election four years ago, and go from 11 to 7. Stein Sneve, political commentator in Avisa Nordland. Photo: Kåre Riibe Ramskjell / news – This is a stinging defeat for the Labor Party in Bodø, says Sneve. – What is the cause? – It may have to do with the fact that Bodø Høyre is fielding a very well-known candidate in Odd-Emil Ingebrigtsen, who has a long political career and who has a high degree of recognition among voters. – While incumbent mayor Ida Pinnerød is not seeking re-election and Ap is fielding a completely new candidate in Ann-Kristin Moldjord, who is not as well known among voters. – Perhaps there is also a bit of governance fatigue after eight years of red-green governance in Bodø, says Sneve. Party barometer Bodø August 2023 What will the voters vote for in the municipal election? Compared to the election in 2019. Party Support Change37.8%H+12,117.4%AP−9,910.1%FRP−1.29.0%SV+4.06.9%R−1.16.4%V+2, 15.2%MDG−0.82.8%SP−7.11.9%INP+1.91.8%KRF−0.20.7%DEM+0.70.2%Other−0.3Click the party circle to see the full party name. Based on 601 interviews conducted in the period 15.8.23–17.8.23. Margins of error from 0.4–5.1 pp. Source: Norstat Facts about the measurement: The measurement was carried out by Norstat on behalf of news. Base: 601 interviews Stating party preference: 398 respondents Field period: 15.08 – 17.08 – Sensational For Høyre there is full tailwind in the sails. The survey shows that 37.8 per cent of those questioned say they will vote for the party. The Conservative Party has never done it better. The record so far is 37 blanks from 1979. Then they also became the largest party. The margin of error for the Conservative Party is 5.1 percentage points in the survey. news’s political commentator Tone Sofie Aglen believes Conservative mayors in other big cities are envious of Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen. Photo: Christina Hårvik Nieuwlaat / news news’s political commentator, Tone Sofie Aglen, says the result is surprisingly good for the Conservatives considering that they are 20 percentage points ahead of the Labor Party in such a large city. – This stands out from other cities as they have a bourgeois majority only with FRP and Venstre. Odd Emil is probably envied by the Conservative Party’s top candidates in other big cities, she says. The survey shows that the three parties have 21 mandates together, and a clear majority. If you include the Industrial Party, the bourgeois side has 22 mandates. Red, the Center Party, SV, the Labor Party and MDG have 17 in total. KrF is completely out of control in Bodø in this survey. Mandate distribution Bodø August 2023 Representatives in the municipal council if the poll was an election. Compared to the election result 2019.HøyreH15+5ArbeiderpartietAP7−4FremskrittspartietFRP40Socialist Left PartySV4+2RødtR30VenstreV20Environmental Party De GrønneMDG20Center PartySP1−3Industrial and Business PartyINP1+1Christian People’s PartyKRF00−1601 interviews conducted in the period 15.8.23–17.8.23. Margins of error from 0.4–5.1 pp. Source: Norstat Tone Sofie Aglen, like Sneve, believes that the Conservative Party has an advantage considering that they have a better-known top candidate. – The Conservative Party has a political ring fox, while the Labor Party has had a change of top candidate, she says. – Not perceived as dark blue Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen also believes that the good measurement reflects a certain “Odd-Emil effect”. Ingebrigtsen has been fisheries minister in the Solberg government and a well-known local politician in Bodø for many years. – This measurement is very pleasant reading. If this were to be the final election result, it would be the best for the Conservative Party ever. But it is a temperature measurement, and a lot is happening in the run-up to the election. He has several explanations for why the Conservative Party is surging forward. – I am not perceived as very dark blue. I have met many people who say they will vote Conservative for the first time. We have a fairly pragmatic program. We are looking for good solutions. The Labor Party can repeat safe governance as much as they like, but people don’t recognize themselves. The city has become more expensive to live in. Among other things, the property tax has been maximized. Høyre has twice previously been the largest party in Bodø, in 1979 and in 2015. Now there are many indications that they will become the largest for the third time. Photo: Olaus Emil Lakselvhaug Ap believes in its own project Bodø Ap’s mayoral candidate makes no secret of the fact that she should have had a better poll. She believes steering wear may be a contributing factor. – We have been in power for eight years and many probably think that it is the same who rules. But it is not. It is important that we continue with the good work that has been done. She also does not disregard the fact that the noise that has been around Ap in government can play a role. – People may be influenced by the issues that come from the government. But this is a local election and not a parliamentary election. Moldjord says that Bodø Ap is not going to make any changes either in politics or the election campaign, despite the poor polling. – We believe that the project we have is good for those who live in Bodø. Bodø is a good municipality to live in and it will continue to be so. But it is clear that we take the measurement to heart. We have to do better going forward Moldjord points out that Bodø is doing well in Kommunal Rapport’s municipal barometer. Here the municipality ends up in 35th place out of the country’s total of 356 municipalities. – If you want a full-time investment, a serious working life and predictability for business, you should vote for the Labor Party. If not, there will be major changes in Bodø society in the future. Ann-Kristin Moldjord is Aps’ mayoral candidate. Photo: Sondre Skjelvik / news Believes the Conservative Party can be the biggest in Nordland But it is not only in Bodø that the Conservative Party is doing well in the north, according to Tone Sofie Aglen. – It was pure mayor massacre for the Conservative Party four years ago. After the last election, we talked about the bourgeois parties being down for counting north of Værnes. That things have turned around to such an extent in such a short time is startling. – I have seen many measurements for the coast of Northern Norway that indicate a very Right-wing wave. Especially in Lofoten and Vesterålen, the Conservative Party has strong polls. Aglen thinks it is a bit about the fact that the Center Party has collapsed after a very good election last time, and the government has made itself unpopular in the business world with, for example, the salmon tax. Stein Sneve in Avisa Nordland has no doubt that the Conservative Party will make a major election in Nordland. – We may experience that the Conservative Party becomes the largest party in Nordland, both during the municipal election and the county council election, and it will then be unique. – The right made a very good election in Nordland in 2015, and a miserable election in 2019. In that sense, it is expected that they will do better now, but if they become the biggest, it will be a sensation. They have never been close to that before. Have you voted blank before? Is there a difference between voting blank and sitting at home?
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Disappointing for the Labor Party – upturn for the Conservative Party – news Nordland
