Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) will attend the NATO summit in Washington 9–11. July. It is Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine that tops the agenda. In this interview, Støre opens up about what help Ukraine needs now, how the war can end, and how Norway, as Russia’s neighbor, is preparing for the time after the war. – Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel in Ukraine? – I don’t do that. The suffering inflicted on the Ukrainians is great. The losses taken at the front are great in what is a stagnant war, says Støre. – It is far from an end or a truce or a prospect of anything other than the situation we are in now. It is a depressing and dangerous picture, he notes. 865 days after Russia’s full-scale invasion, there is little optimism in the Prime Minister’s analysis. At the same time, he does not think the current situation “can last very, very long”. – We know that this is not something that will persist and persist. There must come a time when the parties, based on different assessments, can find another track. That is what we have to work for. UKRAINE FOCUS: Next week there is a NATO summit in Washington. Photo: William Jobling / news – Enormous numbers At the cabin in Kilsund outside Arendal, Støre shows the view out to the ship’s berth, the sea route to Denmark and a continent that is on fire. Here he is preparing for yet another NATO summit, which will essentially be about the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War. The contrast to the southern idyll could hardly be greater. Although Russia has long-standing and unresolved border conflicts with several neighboring countries, Støre believes that the number of soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine will eventually bring the war to an end. – The figures vary, but if it is the case that they lost 30,000 men in the month of May, that is many more than they lost in Afghanistan in ten years. There are some absolutely enormous numbers, says Støre. MANY DEAD: A woman visits a cemetery in Volzhsky outside Volgograd in Russia. Photo: AP All such estimates are highly uncertain, but British intelligence has claimed that 1,200 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded every single day in May. – Even in Russia, which is an authoritarian regime that has control over the media, that is not sustainable for a long time. It’s been way too long already. I think we have to be prepared for the fact that you can have a standstill at the front, but at the same time there is also an exhaustion that will affect both places. – There is a continuous “attrition” that takes place through drones and bombs, which hit Ukrainian cities, power plants, hospitals and infrastructure, and which is obviously intended to break the will to resist in Ukraine. I think it is very strong, and my impression is that they have no intention of giving this up. – Are you afraid that Western support for Ukraine will erode if there are no signs that this may end? – What we have been concerned with leading up to the NATO summit is to give Ukraine what they ask for most, namely air defence. If they get air defence, they can also protect their forces who are out in the fight, and their big cities, says Støre. THE WEAPON: Støre looked at the air defense system Nasams during a visit to Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace last year. Photo: AFP “Kjøttstorm” Chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) says the figures for killed and wounded in Ukraine are very uncertain. He refers to the Russian website Mediazona’s partnership with the BBC, which counts actual, confirmed dead soldiers by name. According to this website, 56,858 Russian soldiers have now been killed. But the real figure is probably much higher, according to Bukkvoll. – They themselves say that it is an absolute minimum number. It is quite common to multiply it by three. Then we will reach 170,000, he says to news. – In addition, there are around 40,000 dead Wagner soldiers and on top of that perhaps 20,000 dead from the so-called people’s republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, says Bukkvoll. TAPSTALL: Chief researcher at FFI, Tor Bukkvoll. Photo: Roy Pettersen But on the Ukrainian side, it is even more difficult to calculate loss figures, according to the FFI researcher. – The Ukrainians themselves have confirmed around 30,000 dead, but most people think these are very low numbers. I have seen independent calculations of plus or minus 100,000. – How long can the parties waging the war stand in this? – They can probably stay in it for a while yet. Ukraine is now doing new mobilization, so they will get more people. Russia has not yet initiated a second round of mobilization. But there is a question as to whether there will be enough soldiers left in the various countries. And it is a question of whether the population and the elite will be willing to sacrifice such a large part of the population, says Bukkvoll. But the researcher has no doubt that the Russian forces use human lives and soldiers in a completely different way than the Ukrainians. – On the Russian side, terms such as “meat storm” and “disposable soldier” have arisen. Such concepts arise for a reason, he says. NATO CHIEF: Dutch Mark Rutte honors fallen soldiers together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj during a visit to Ukraine this spring. Rutte will now become NATO’s Secretary General. Photo: AP Land and guarantees But how can the war actually end? The simple answer is that Russia stops the invasion of Ukraine, states Prime Minister Støre. – And then they have to withdraw. It is also said that if Ukraine stops the war, then Ukraine stops. After all, Russia’s demand is that Ukraine should withdraw from Ukraine. It is understandable that Ukrainian leaders do not want to do that, he says. The big question that needs to be resolved once the guns fall silent is what will happen to several regions of Ukraine that Russia has incorporated into its own country. Støre points out that there are some “very demanding questions” there, but that it is the Ukrainians themselves who must decide which compromises they can enter into. – Is it conceivable with a peace agreement where Ukraine has to cede certain areas of land, or is it not conceivable at all, as Western countries see it? – I believe that it is Ukraine that must make the assessment. I don’t want to sit here and say that they think they will cede one and the other area of land. – The end of such wars ends in some contexts with what we call territorial compromises. This has been discussed earlier in the course of the Ukraine war. But again: these are very sensitive issues, and Ukraine has up-and-coming leaders who must make the difficult judgments. Another key point is which security guarantees Ukraine can be given against new Russian aggression. – The security guarantees that Ukraine will receive are among the important questions now, both at the NATO summit and in the months to come, says Støre. – We must give them the security that, after a possible end to the war, Ukraine can be sure that it will not flare up again around the next corner. Norway prepares Jonas Gahr Støre, when he was foreign minister in the Stoltenberg government in the 2000s, met his Russian colleague Sergej Lavrov countless times. Not least, the two had close contact when Norway and Russia entered into an agreement on the division of an enormous sea area in the Barents Sea in 2010, known as the dividing line agreement. Now the relationship is at freezing point, but Støre emphasizes that there will be a time after the war. Then Norway and Russia will still be neighbours. – Countries in Europe, small and large, have the right to live safely within their borders. It is a fundamental principle for how we should be in Europe. And it comes a day after, says Støre. The war has brought two of Norway’s other neighboring countries, namely Sweden and Finland, into NATO. It is also of great importance for Norwegian defense planning. – We are now working very closely with the Nordic countries, and especially Sweden and Finland, on how to safeguard our security in the north. It is an expression that we try to be at the forefront of what is to come, says Støre. He shows that Norway must now take care of its own security along three tracks: A national defense and a historic defense settlement with all the parties in the Storting. Be a good NATO ally. Coordinate closely with Sweden and Finland in the north. SUMMIT: Støre together with Finnish President Alexander Stubb (left) and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Photo: NTB Støre has brought a message to the NATO summit that the NATO countries must stick together and stand by collective protection. – The second is that we must find a good way to express support for Ukraine. It is morally important in relation to a country that is under attack. But it is also about values and security for the surrounding countries, far beyond Ukraine. – NATO has expressed that it wants a greater role in coordinating the Ukraine effort. Does that make sense? – Yes. NATO will not become a party to this war. The NATO countries are not parties to the war. But Ukraine has the right to defend itself, and they have the right to get help. And we have the right to help them. We will not become a party to the war for that reason. Published 07/07/2024, at 17.46
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