– There is great uncertainty about how things will develop in Russia, but all the scenarios are quite bleak, says Aage Borchgrevink, senior adviser at the Helsinki Committee. Borchgrevink believes Russia is facing difficult times. The only question is how difficult. Photo: NTB / NTB – It is similar to the end of the Soviet Union, he says. – The authorities’ narrative resembles reality less and less, both economically and on the battlefield. But Borchgrevink believes the potential for violence is much stronger now than when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia is economically cut off from the West as a result of the war and suffers huge military losses. Borchgrevink says that weapons are now flowing into the country from the war zone in Ukraine. Many Russians fear the violence in Russia will increase in line with the flow of weapons from the war zone in Ukraine. Photo: SERGEY PIVOVAROV / Reuters / NTB Eventually, veterans from the war will also return. In a new survey, carried out by the American think tank Atlantic Council, where 167 of the world’s leading foreign policy experts were to try to predict the next ten years, as many as 46 percent of them believed that Russia would become a failed state by 2033. The survey is published in the Financial Times. 40 percent thought Russia would collapse as a result of civil war, revolution or political disintegration. The authorities’ narrative has stopped matching the reality in Russia, explains Borchgrevink Photo: NTB / NTB In fact, 21 percent believed that Russia was the country in the entire world that had the greatest probability of collapsing. This is twice as many people who thought the same about Afghanistan. – The weapons flow in from the war, from the soldiers. The Russian army is a big market. Most people have probably realized how corrupt things are in the Russian military, he says. – Soldiers say that you can exchange weapons for cigarettes at the front. Russian soldiers exchange weapons for cigarettes or sell them at home in Russia. Illustration: ALEXANDER SLOTTEN / news He believes that the militarization taking place in Russia is now turning large parts of the country into a kind of large arms bazaar. It is not only at the front that is traded. – I think the Russians know that the country is becoming less and less safe as weapons flow in. It is something that characterizes Russian society, and that many Russians think about. I hear that more people are buying guns now to protect themselves, he says. Bad or worse Russians worry that the country is thrown back to the 90s, a very chaotic and difficult period in the country’s history. – It was a time characterized by very high crime. There were up to 40,000 murders a year. And even in a large country like Russia there is a lot, he explains. A Russian policeman from a special unit fired a suspect during a raid on an open street in Moscow in 1996. Photo: NTB / NTB – Back then, Russia was a highly criminalized society, where gangs controlled parts of cities and parts of industries. – I think the criminalization and that there will be more violence in Russia is very likely, he says. But a full-blown civil war is still further away, the expert predicts. Fears chaos and lawlessness news journalist Jan Espen Kruse has been a correspondent in Russia on several occasions, including in the 90s. He remembers well how chaotic it was. Jan Espen Kruse was a correspondent in the chaotic 90s. Photo: ANATOLIJ KUPRIANOV / news Russians he is in contact with believe that the fear of ending up back there is great, and raises the threshold for rebelling and organizing demonstrations. He still believes that the pessimism is great, and that it may eventually reach a boiling point. – There is a saying in Russian that says “as long as there is no war, we will be able to handle everything else”. Now it’s war, Kruse explains. A generation of war has been created by the mobilization, which could mean trouble for the regime when they return from the battlefield. Photo: ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / NTB – I think those who remember the 90s will be extra careful. Putin had an agreement with the population. He was supposed to deal with politics, they don’t interfere. Then they get progress and stability. This worked well for many years, but then came the war, and then also the political opposition. But he believes we should not exaggerate the importance of the dissatisfaction we see so far. – Public opinion is important, but that importance should not be exaggerated in an authoritarian system like Russia, where it is in reality one man, or at best a small clique, who makes all the most important decisions. The authorities have brutally cracked down on all demonstrations so far, and the signal effect has been great. If you go against the authorities, you lose your job, your education, your whole life and that of your family, Kruse explains. It takes a lot before demonstrating in Russia. Photo: ALEXANDER NEMENOV / AFP The situation must have become very serious before the consequences are worth it, he believes. – I don’t think we are anywhere near there now. The population of Russia tightens its belt, “we’ll probably make it this round and” they think. They are preparing for harder times, and are not desperate enough to rebel yet. But Kruse explains that the Russians describe themselves like this: “We are terribly patient, but there comes a point”. He says that it is possible that we will get to this point, but then the desperation will be very great. A challenger to Putin There are also signs of rebellion and conflict within the Kremlin, where in particular the leader of the Wagner Group, a private army fighting in Ukraine, and the Ministry of Defense are arguing in public. The head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is widely predicted as a possible challenger to Putin, a potential heir. Prigozhin leads the Wagner group, and has positioned himself during the war in Ukraine. Photo: Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool/File Photo / Reuters – Prigozhin is now establishing himself as a clear figure in Russian politics, says Borchgrevink. He has gone from being behind the scenes to becoming a profiled person with a clear and brutal ideology. Borchgrevink points to a video showing Wagner soldiers killing what they describe as a traitor with a sledgehammer, which they then posted on social media. – Very brutal and very clear, he says. Wagner also sent a bloody sledgehammer to the European Parliament in a violin case, according to The Telegraph. – The war creates a new dynamic in the Russian elite. Prigozhin is a possible contender in my opinion. He has money, he has guns and he has profile. I would think he looks like a likely candidate to be one of the new leaders in Russia. More likely than Ramzan Kadyrov. Kadyrov has no chance without Putin’s support, experts say. Photo: Musa Sadulayev / AP Kadyrov is a prominent figure in the Russian public and was installed by Putin as president of Chechnya, after the Chechen wars. – Kadyrov is dependent on money from the Kremlin, he has no power base of his own. He is also very unpopular in Chechnya and without the support of Putin, he will quit. May disintegrate Jan Espen Kruse believes Russia will still exist in ten years, and does not think Prigozhin can challenge Putin. Many people Jan Espen Kruse talks to in Russia are deeply worried about the future. Photo: news / news – I don’t think you can put Wagner up against Putin. Wagner was created by Putin. But Putin pits factions against each other and allows them to gain influence and the right to criticize each other. But that Wagner should take over and put Putin aside. It is extremely unlikely. – If he were to feel that Prigozhin was a threat, he would be out for nothing. But Kruse sees signs that the state may dissolve if the central power becomes too weak. – Chechnya does not see itself as part of Russia. Dagestan, Tatarstan, Buryatia, all of these have almost been forced to be part of Russia, he explains. – If they see an opportunity to break away, they might want to take it. And the fact that Russia consists of so many ethnic and religious groups. If the central power is threatened and weak, it could lead to dissolution, explains the former foreign correspondent. – But again, I think the development in the economy will be decisive. You won’t have dramatic street protests until people are really desperate. But Kruse is open to the possibility that the unexpected can suddenly occur. – There could be a sudden change of power within the Kremlin. It can happen almost overnight. The war generation Jan Espen Kruse also points to the challenges Russia will face when the veterans from the Ukraine war return to the country. He believes that there is particular trouble with all the soldiers the Wagner group has taken from the prisons in Russia. – Something that is crystal clear is that getting people who have been trained in war back into society is a huge problem, he says. The Wagner group is a group of mercenaries who, among other things, recruit soldiers from Russian prisons. They are fighting in Ukraine together with the Russian army. – Not least when you see the number of Wagner soldiers recruited from prisons. There may be thousands, who even before the war had not adapted to society. Borchgrevink agrees that this will be a decisive factor. – They are now creating a war generation and that will have deep and long-lasting consequences, he says. – It is difficult to see that anything positive will come out of this.
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