Both as a trading partner and militarily, Poland is becoming very important to us here in Norway. Therefore, associate professor Håkon Lunde Saxi at the Staff School believes that it is time to start caring about Polish politics. Saxi is associate professor Håkon Lunde Saxi at Staff School. He believes that one should start following Poland. – They buy large quantities of American military equipment such as tanks, combat aircraft and surface-to-air missiles, he explains. Poland has ordered a lot of different military equipment from the United States. Illustration: Collage / NTB/news They have also created a huge agreement with South Korea, where Poland will receive a delivery of around 1,000 tanks. Poland already has more tanks than Germany, France and Great Britain combined. – If these purchases are carried out, they will have NATO’s second largest army in Europe, after Turkey, he says. Politico describes Poland’s army as potentially Europe’s best. Poland also aims to spend 4 percent of gross national product on the military, twice as much as most other NATO countries. Poland is aiming for a military of over 300,000 soldiers. Photo: AP – Poland is already well over 2 per cent, and they will be up to 3 per cent during 2023. Recently, they made a statement where they say the target is 4 per cent of gross national product, says Saxi. Poland has ordered 1,000 tanks from South Korea. These will partly be produced in Poland. Photo: Reuters – The sum of this will make Poland a much more important country in NATO than it has been in the past. And thus much more important for us in Norway. – It strengthens the NATO flank in the east, which Norway is very interested in, says senior researcher Jakub Godzimirski at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI). Jakub Godzimirski at NUPI says that Poland and Norway are getting closer in their view of Russia. – Poland has entered into a major arms agreement with Kongsberg Gruppen, a Norwegian arms manufacturer. This is the largest agreement the group has ever been involved in. An order for a whopping NOK 16 billion. These are the rockets Poland has ordered from Kongsberg Gruppen. Photo: NTB – They will buy missiles to defend their coast, but which can also be used in many contexts, says the NUPI researcher. Kongsberg Gruppen is a Norwegian arms manufacturer. They have made a big deal with Poland. Photo: NTB “What did we say?” Poland and Norway previously had very different views on Russia. – Until 2014, Poland was more skeptical of Russia than Norway was. Norway considered Russia a possible cooperation partner in the north, says Godzimirski. But after the annexation of Crimea and the use of military force against Ukraine, Norway and Poland drew much closer to each other. Ukrainian refugees arrive in the Polish border town of Przemysl at the start of the war in Ukraine. The refugees are primarily women and children. – Both perceive Russia as someone who uses military power as part of their political toolbox, and deterrence has then become more important for both. Lunde Saxi says that Poland has been worried about Russia for a long time, and thus has been arming itself for a long time. – The Poles have always been afraid that Russia would come back and restore control over them, says Saxi. Ever since they gained their independence from the Soviet Union in 1989, Poland has been afraid that the Russian bear will attack. Illustration: ALEXANDER SLOTTEN / news – They have been concerned with that from day one. Therefore, they wanted to join NATO as soon as possible. And they have always taken defense seriously. They believe other countries were too lazy to see the challenge posed by Putin’s Russia. – They say “what did we say?”, says Saxi. Much of the reason for Poland’s persistent skepticism of Russia is that Poland was under Russian control from World War II until 1989, when the Soviet Union collapsed. – The Poles like to say that for the rest of Europe the war ended in 1945, but they were occupied until 1989, says NUPI researcher Godzimirski. Economic miracle Poland was only allowed to shape its own policy after 1989. Poland got a free market economy, a democratic political model and major changes in security policy. Poland is not a rich country in line with many Western European countries, but they have recovered a lot, says Saxi. They are among the fastest growing economies in the world. Photo: ALEXANDER SLOTTEN / news – The World Bank shows which countries have experienced the greatest economic growth in the last 30 years. Poland is number two after China, he says. – Polish economy has grown eight times since the end of the 80s. Not 8 percent, 800 percent. Complicated ally – For Norway, Poland has become an important market and a more important ally, says Saxi. – That is the positive part of the story, he says. But Poland is also a challenging ally. It has been illustrated in recent weeks. – Poland is governed by a national conservative, right-wing populist party. It is not uncomplicated. They are becoming increasingly authoritarian and the country is very polarized, says Saxi. Ukraine and Poland have quarreled recently, but this should be seen in the light of the election campaign, the expert believes. Photo: AFP Poland is among the most important suppliers of weapons to Ukraine. But recently, the two countries have quarreled on several occasions. It escalated when Poland, against EU rules, refused to import cheap Ukrainian grain to protect its own grain production. Poland and Ukraine quarrel over grain. Photo: NTB When Ukraine criticized them for this, Poland’s prime minister threatened to withdraw all future arms support. Poland’s domestic policy becomes more important to us in Norway when Poland becomes a more important player, he explains. Godzimirski at Nupi believes this should be seen as pure election campaign play. An important part of the voter base of the national conservative party PiS, which is now in power, is people from the countryside who like to work as farmers. When cheap grain from Ukraine enters Poland, they become dissatisfied. – This should be recognizable to us. Norway does the same, and that is one of the reasons why Norway does not want to join the EU, says Godzimirski. At the same time, PiS is being challenged by the far right, which is more Ukraine-sceptical. Poland is governed by a right-wing populist, national conservative party. They feel challenged by the far right and therefore use a more Ukraine-skeptic rhetoric to win voters from there. Photo: Reuters – We have to distinguish between the election and the longer-term trends, explains the Nupi researcher. Polish voters go to the polls in a few weeks. Much of what happens and what is said in Polish politics must therefore be interpreted as part of the election campaign. – The government party feels challenged from the far right, and the party to the right of them is likely to get between 6 and 14 per cent and can sit on the edge. PiS has therefore invested heavily in portraying itself as more critical of Ukraine than before in order to take the sting out of the right. But Poland is the NATO country that has the longest border with Ukraine. – Poland has an enormous interest in Ukraine not falling because then Russian troops will be on the Polish border, says Saxi.
ttn-69
Complicated ally – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
