Current Voting Intentions Among Colombians
Overview of Recent Polls
Recent surveys conducted in late February 2026 have provided insight into how Colombians are likely to vote in the upcoming elections on March 8 and May 31. Polling organizations such as Invamer, Guarumo-EcoAnalisis, AtlasIntel, Gad3, and the National Consulting Center have collected data indicating distinct preferences for presidential candidates.
Leading Candidates
The Historical Pact’s Iván Cepeda emerges as the frontrunner in these polls. According to Invamer, a notable 37.1% of respondents indicated they would vote for Cepeda, while Gad3 reports a slightly lower figure of 34%. The National Consulting Center aligns with Invamer’s trends, showing Cepeda at 35.4% and Atlas Intel reporting an even higher 37%. This surge in support can be attributed to recent governmental policies under President Gustavo Petro, such as the increase in the minimum wage.
Competitors Close Behind
In second place is Abelardo de la Espriella, who shows mixed results across various surveys. Invamer records him at 18.9%, while the Gad3 survey shows 26% support, indicating a strong but variable backing for his campaign. He appears to be the primary challenger to Cepeda, although the political landscape remains fluid.
Meanwhile, Claudia López, Paloma Valencia, and Sergio Fajardo appear to be in a competitive third place. López is reported to have 11.7% in Invamer and 5.2% in the National Consulting Center. Conversely, Valencia and Fajardo show fluctuating support, with Fajardo at 6.9% in Atlas Intel.
Strategic Impacts on the Election
Political analyst Juan Falkonerth emphasizes that the left-wing consolidation, especially among the Historical Pact, has made a significant impact. Certain decisions made by the government, such as wage increases, have ingrained support for Cepeda among the electorate. However, Falkonerth warns that the political map could shift with March 8 consultations, which might realign voter preferences.
López’s strategy to initiate the Solutions Consultation has revitalized her campaign, with analysts predicting it positions her favorably for debate participation—important to gauge actual electoral support.
Upcoming Consultations
The upcoming consultations on March 8 will provide additional context, determining candidates such as Paloma Valencia, who leads with 41.6% in the Great Consultation for Colombia, and the notable interest in Claudia López, who dominates the Solutions Consultation with 92.9%.
Conclusion: The Uncertain Voter Landscape
Despite the current frontrunners showing strong numbers, analysts note a staggering proportion of undecided voters—estimated at 40-45%. This undecided demographic, along with the dynamic nature of political strategies, indicates that the final voter turnout could dramatically reshape the election landscape. As Colombia approaches critical consultations, all eyes will be on how these sentiments influence decisions at the polls.
As we witness this political journey unfold, one thing is clear: voter intention is not static, but rather a reflection of ongoing discourse, strategic moves, and governmental actions.