The first round of the dramatic election in Brazil went better than the incumbent president had feared. Jair Bolsonaro got enough votes for a second round. But tonight’s winner was challenger Lula da Silva, better known as Lula. If the veteran from the left wins the second round on October 30, it will also be a victory for the Amazon, according to the Rainforest Foundation. – It gives us hope and it gives our allies in Brazil hope, says Anders Haug Larsen in the Rain Forest Fund to news. The rainforest is home to an enormous biodiversity. Photo: MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP How much rainforest can be saved He is supported by an analysis for Carbon Brief. It shows that a Lula victory could cut deforestation by 89 percent by 2030. That would save 75,960 square kilometers of the Amazon, an area the size of Troms and Finnmark counties. The analysis has been carried out by researchers from the University of Oxford, the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) and the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). If Lula becomes Brazil’s next president, it could also cut the country’s greenhouse gas emissions significantly, if a stop to illegal deforestation is also combined with planting new forests. A significant proportion of Brazil’s emissions come from deforestation to produce meat. A loss for Lula could have major consequences for the environment, believes one of Brazil’s leading climate commentators. – Tragedy for the environment – A re-election of Bolsonaro will be a complete tragedy for the environment, says Marcio Astrini, head of the Climate Observatory in Brazil to news. Photo: Márcia Alves / OBSERVATORIO DO CLIMA – He wants to continue with this destruction and this sabotage of the agencies that are supposed to protect the forest and gives free rein to criminals, such as loggers, gold diggers and people who burn forests to farm. That is what has been going on now for more than three years and will continue if Bolsonaro wins, says Astrini. Lula’s promises The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s richest ecosystems, with a teeming flora and fauna. Preservation of the forest is also important to stop the climate crisis, says Haug Larsen. – There are no models that indicate that we will be able to limit the warming of the globe to 1.5 degrees, as the world agreed on in the Paris Agreement, without also taking care of the rainforest. Under Bolsonaro’s leadership, deforestation has increased by up to 75 percent, according to Regnskogfondet. Among other things, his government has weakened the environmental directorate IBAMA and other agencies that are supposed to prevent illegal deforestation. Bolsonaro greets supporters the day before the election in Brazil. Photo: CAIO GUATELLI / AFP In the Carbon Brief’s analysis, the researchers take as their starting point that Lula keeps his election promises to crack down on this, and that Bolsonaro continues his policy as before. Lula was president from 2003 to 2011. His government managed to reduce deforestation by 70 percent. Haug Larsen believes that this is possible again. Much is about reintroducing measures, mandates and funding that have been removed, he believes. – This is completely feasible. But part of the previous success came from the fact that it was done in cooperation with the international community. Among other things, to a large extent, Norway, which helped to finance the various reforms that had an effect. It will be important now too, he says. Has increased before the election Recently, illegal deforestation in the Amazon has accelerated even more, according to experts CNN has spoken to. The people behind it fear it is the last chance to deal with it, before a possible new president cracks down harder on the illegal activity, writes CNN. A deforested area in the rainforest. The picture is from September. Photo: DOUGLAS MAGNO / AFP It is still possible that Bolsonaro will stay in office. The first round of the election was more even than several opinion polls reported. Many thought Lula would get enough votes on Sunday for everything to be decided then. But now Brazil, and the world, must instead wait until the second round of elections in less than a month.
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Claims the rainforest wins if Bolsonaro loses – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
