China is advancing at a fearsome speed, yet the country’s own experts are critiquing the state of its semiconductor industry. A group composed of distinguished scientists and industry veterans has published an analysis categorizing China’s semiconductor landscape as “small, dispersed, and weak.” The major barrier they identify is the absence of a domestic equivalent to ASML, the Dutch lithography giant. Intriguingly, they assert that developing a Chinese ASML is not as complex as it may seem.
Expert Voices in the Semiconductor Debate
Notable among the authors of the analysis are Wang Yangyuan, co-founder of the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), and Chen Nanxiang, director of NAND chip producer Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC). Their authoritative voices lend credibility to the article published in the Science and Technology Review. This piece serves as a crucial lens for understanding the current state of the semiconductor industry in China.
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions
The article underscores how U.S. sanctions have effectively stymied China’s progress in critical areas like electronic design automation (EDA), silicon wafer fabrication, and the production of chip-making equipment, particularly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. This segment is predominantly controlled by ASML, and despite China’s ongoing efforts, it has yet to make significant strides in matching this technology.
Dispersed but Prominent: The Current State
The study sheds light on the fragmentation within the Chinese semiconductor market. While there are 3,626 domestic chip design firms, these generate a total output value of just 646 billion yuan (approximately $91 billion), a figure that pales in comparison to NVIDIA’s solitary sales.
Success in Smartphone Chips
Amid these challenges, certain Chinese firms have managed to break ground in smartphone chip technology. HiSilicon Semiconductor and Unisoc have emerged as frontrunners, holding 20% and 10% of the market share, respectively. Their success underscores China’s potential in high-demand sectors.
Mature Technology: A Silver Lining
When it comes to more established chip technologies, particularly those produced using 28 nm photolithography or older, China has shown marked improvement. Currently, the country accounts for 33% of global production in this segment, capitalizing on fewer dependencies on foreign suppliers.
Ongoing Dependence on Imports
Despite advancements, China remains the globe’s largest importer of integrated circuits, pouring $385.79 billion into these components in 2024—surpassing even its oil imports. This looming dependency is particularly acute in automotive chips, with a staggering 95% of these sourced from abroad, along with 90% of memory chips. Such reliance signifies a considerable bottleneck in China’s quest for self-sufficiency in high-end integrated circuits.
Creating a Chinese ASML
The analysis extends beyond a mere commercial rivalry, framing the quest for a Chinese ASML as a matter of technological sovereignty. It portrays ASML as “a simple integrator,” ushering together over 5,000 suppliers to coordinate the myriad components needed for an EUV machine. The proposal centers on unifying China’s fragmented advancements into a cohesive entity that can rival ASML’s capabilities.
Challenges Ahead
While strides have been made in developing cutting-edge semiconductor technology, the integration of these efforts into a national framework remains a complex challenge. Experts point out that financial investment and skilled personnel are imperative to realize this ambition within the timeline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which concludes in 2030. Despite China’s attempts to emulate ASML, success remains uncertain. Innovations such as Flip-FET technology from Peking University offer promise, allowing the potential to achieve 3-2 nm nodes without complete reliance on EUV machines, but future outcomes remain to be seen.
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