Four years ago, cheers were in the ceiling at SP’s election vigil. The party was then able to celebrate the best municipal elections of all time and a turnout of 14.4 per cent. The result was over 130 mayors around the country. But in Norstat’s last opinion poll before the local elections for news and Aftenposten, Sp has fallen to a support of 7.1 per cent. – We must do better in the election. There are so many good candidates, mayors and local union representatives who really stand up and are passionate about their local environment, says SP leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum to news. Norstat has asked people what they would vote for if there were municipal elections. From the previous survey in August, Sp falls by 2.4 percentage points, a decline that is outside the margin of error in Norstat’s survey. ELECTION CAMPAIGN: Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum visited Løten mayor Marte Tønseth today. Photo: Frode Meskau / news – Why do you think SP’s support has halved since 2019? – The election has not yet taken place. There is an enormous willingness to stand up locally, both for local schools, local hospitals and the local issues the election is about. Now the election will be held, then we will count the votes then, says Vedum. The Center Party has had a tough time on several fronts recently. The party sits in an unpopular government, which has had to deal with war, a pandemic, expensive electricity and sky-high inflation. In addition, the summer has been characterized by political scandals, which have also affected Sp. Vedum’s deputy chairman, Ola Borten Moe, had to resign this summer after getting into trouble with his competence due to share investments. On top of this came the electrification of Melkøya in late summer. The case set tempers ablaze in local Sp teams, who fear a power shortage in the north. – How do you think the electrification of Melkøya has affected the measurement? – This is a local election, so it is local matters that decide. National municipal poll September What will the voters vote for in the municipal elections? Compared to measurement on 16 August. Party Support Change28.1%H−1.120.3%AP+0.49.1%FRP+0.87.1%SP−2.46.9%SV−2.45.6%MDG +1.44.9%R+0.94.4%V+0.53.3%KRF+0.52.9%INP−0.47.5%Other+2.0Click on the partition circle to see the whole the party name. Based on 998 interviews conducted in the period 28.8.23–31.8.23. Margins of error from 1.2–3.4 pp. Source: Norstat SV plunge When news’s Under Arendalsuka published its August poll, SV could celebrate voter support of a whopping 9.3 per cent. Now the party receives support from 6.9 percent of voters, a decline of 2.4 percent. That change is also outside the margin of error and thus statistically safe. FALLS: SV leader Kirsti Bergstø. Photo: Tom Balgaard/news – We went down in this measurement, but on the average of the measurements, SV is ahead, says SV leader Kirsti Bergstø to news. – And we also see that it is SV’s progress that can secure a red-green majority in many places. It is needed to ensure both the environment and distribution at the election. She points out that there is an even race in both Oslo, Bergen and Trondheim between the right and the left. Center party the most back – Party barometer analysis The point of an election campaign must be to keep the voters you have and to convince voters who have doubts or have voted for other parties. The Center Party does not succeed in any of the three things if we compare with our poll a month ago. Sp now has 115,000 undecided voters, compared to 73,000 in August. SP loses 50,000 voters to the Conservative Party and 30,000 voters to Ap. Sp has never before this year had such a low turnout, such a low proportion of loyal voters (34 per cent) and such a high proportion of voters on the fence as in this survey. SP is now halved from the local council election four years ago. The governing parties are struggling. The Labor Party has 160,000 voters on the fence, fewer than a month ago. The proportion of loyal voters is increasing somewhat. When Ap does not gain more strength, it is because Ap loses 60,000 voters to the Conservative Party. Labor has been the largest party in every election since 1924, but is now 210,000 voters behind the Conservative Party. Høyre’s largest party Høyre makes its fourth survey in a row above 28 percent. Somewhat higher than the average calculations. The right is weighted down from the raw numbers. Loyalty is falling more than support. In our figures, the Conservative Party has an increased pick-up from the stay-at-home group. A total of 147,000 come from there, more than from the government parties combined. The INP draws from several parties The Industrial and Business Party falls back slightly on this survey, but it is interesting to see where the party draws its voters from. The INP gets 14,000 voters from the Conservative Party, 11,000 from the Liberal Party, 6,000 from ap and 3,000 from Sp and 2,000 from Rødt. The largest group is still 35,000 voters who state that they did not vote at the election four years ago. How many of them actually make use of the right to vote this year will mean a lot for INP’s result. Other partiesKrF is still below 4 per cent as in previous Norstat polls. According to Pollofpoll’s average calculations, KrF is over. It is psychologically important for KrF two years before the general election. According to Pollofpoll’s two average calculations, Frp does even better than in this measurement and gets double figures. The MDG is down compared to the election result four years ago. The party is losing voters to both Redt, Høyre, Ap and Venstre. Almost every third voter is still on the fence. SV and Rødt have a greater turnover of voters than earlier in the election campaign. In this survey, it is Rødt that benefits the most from this. Fewer than half of the Liberal voters from the last time will now vote for the Liberal Party, but the party gets 10,000 voters from the Conservative Party. For Ap and Høyre, the movements are small and within the margin of error. The Labor Party tips over the 20 percent limit and is measured at 20.3 percent, compared to 19.9 percent in August. This means that the Conservative Party is still by far the country’s largest party. Erna Solberg and her allies have the support of 28.1 percent of voters in September, compared to 29.2 in August. – I am very happy with it. We knew that we would get a small nudge from very good opinion polls in June, because other parties were going to mobilise, says Solberg to news. ELECTION CAMPAIGN: Right-wing leader Erna Solberg today visited Grønvolds Bil-Demontering in Brumunddal in Innlandet. Photo: Aleksandr Nedbaev / news The right-wing leader points out that there is an even balance between the right and the left in many big cities. – We know that we have to work hard in the next few days to get all those who say they will vote Conservative to go to the polling stations and vote. For the two governing parties, there are two main problems: They have a total of 275,000 voters sitting on the fence. At the same time, they leak tens of thousands of voters to the Conservative Party: Sp 50,000, Ap 60,000. For Ap, the summer has been marked by troubled competence cases for both Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt, Minister of Knowledge Tonje Brenna and Minister of Culture Anette Trettebergstuen. The latter had to leave his position before the summer. For its part, the Conservative Party has had to endure a strong spotlight on the fact that Erna Solberg’s husband Sindre Finnes bought and sold shares while Solberg was prime minister.
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Center party halved in four years – news Norway – Overview of news from various parts of the country
