The Northern Lights photographers wait in excitement. Now it is time for a color eldorado in the sky. – It has increased from a G2 to a G3 during the night, says Pål Brekke. – This means that there will be a very powerful geomagnetic storm. For most people, this will mean that the northern lights can be seen far down the country, and probably down to the middle of Europe. Arriving on Thursday Brekke is subject manager at the Norwegian Space Centre. He can say that the cause is an eruption on the sun: – What is special here is that we have two solar storms that have come right after each other. The first on August 14, and the second on August 15. The latter moves faster and is expected to catch up with the former. – It thus “eats” the first and the whole thing builds up to something even bigger and more powerful. They call it a “cannibal solar storm”, explains Brekke. It can be illustrated like this: Here we see an illustration of the sun. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab A solar storm (cloud of electrified, magnetic gas) weighing billions of tons is thrown from the sun into space at a speed of up to 2,000 kilometers per second. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab Here we see how artist Walt Feimer imagines this happening. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab It’s called Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) in English, and they are fierce things. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab After the first, a second CME suddenly emerges from the same region of the Sun. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab The second moves faster, catching up with the first. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab They merge. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab And get together a larger and more complex structure. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab Something like this is headed our way now. Illustration: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab But that’s not enough: In addition, there is a large coronal hole on the sun pointing in our direction. Simply explained, particles are ejected from this at twice the speed of the rest of the sun. Like a gust of wind, we are hit by these particles all this evening. – There may be good northern lights tonight, perhaps down to southern Norway. – So, sometime during the day tomorrow, it has been announced that these two solar storms will arrive on Earth together. It is a warning, and warnings can, as you know, change. But as of now, this is what is in progress. So-called coronal mass ejections (CME) can cause auroras quite far south this week. Graphics from US NOAA. Photo: swpc.noaa.gov Shaking the magnetic field When you say that a “G3 geomagnetic storm” is expected, it is based on a scale from 1 to 5. Here, among other things, a CME is pictured on July 14, 2017. Photo: NASA/GSFC/Solar Dynamics Observatory G3 is not at the top of the scale, but relatively powerful cost nonetheless, and not something that happens very often. – When the gas cloud hits us, it “shakes” the Earth’s magnetic field. This will induce current in long metal objects. Like power lines, oil pipelines and things like that. – Then so much current can be induced that you get an unstable power grid. In the worst case, some transformers could burn out, and the power could go out, says Brekke. It has happened before, he notes. – I would assume that Statnett and electricity companies follow closely. Satellites in low orbit will also feel more friction, and can thus lose altitude more quickly. They may also have orientation problems. Radio communication is often reduced and occasionally switched off. COLORFUL: The Northern Lights are a great spectacle, and for the next few days they can be seen quite far to the south. Photo: JENS ANDRE MEHAMMER BIRKELAND / VESTERÅLEN TOURS Researcher Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen works at the Northern Lights observatory in Tromsø. He notes that those launching satellites should be careful right now. – For example, SpaceX lost around 30 Starlink satellites in a similar incident earlier this year. Andøya Space: – Often a desired event In Nordland, satellites are launched from Andøya Space. Vice-president Kolbjørn Blix says the following about how space weather affects their work: – In general, I can say that such events do not affect us on a daily basis. Andenes lies directly under the northern lights oval at night, so here the northern lights are a daily and often desired event by scientists and the general public. – Events like this push this oval further south, past Andøya and northern Nordland. This usually means that the northern lights up here are a little less impressive because we can end up seeing them in the south, and not in the north or directly above us as we usually do. At Statnett, they are aware of the situation. In an e-mail, they state that they have received a notice of increased activity this week, through the warning system for solar storms in Tromsø. – At Statnett, we monitor the power grid around the clock all year round and we are prepared for the solar storm and monitor it, but we have not taken any special measures, writes senior communications advisor Marianne Veggeberg to news. – Solar storms have so far not given us any major problems, but we have experienced unwanted outcomes in a transformer station in the past, without this affecting the electricity customers. Our systems are set up so that it should be possible to connect to other lines if we experience a power cut, so that the power supply is maintained. Researchers are working to prepare the power grid Since powerful solar storms can cause major damage to both navigation systems, power grids and satellites, this is also a field in which a lot of research is done. In 2019, a separate solar storm project was launched in Steinkjer in Trøndelag. The purpose was to learn more about how large solar storms can damage transformers and destabilize the power supply in Norway. The project was mentioned by TU.no, which in an article was able to state that there are thousands of large transformers in the northern hemisphere. An area that is exposed to room weather. By installing sensors on a transformer for Statnett, the aim has been to get important knowledge in place, says SINTEF researcher Kristian Solheim Thinn. – We see that the solar storms put a strain on the power grid. Even a relatively moderate storm affects quite a lot. So when something big comes along, there can be problems. There is often a cascade effect. If one and two go out first, then it quickly escalates. RESEARCH PROJECT: Kristian Solheim Thinn is involved in an exciting project which looks more closely at how solar storms affect the power grid. Photo: SINTEF In the USA and Canada, several millions lost power during a solar storm in 1989. In Sweden, parts of Malmö lost power during the “Halloween storm” in 2003. As solar activity is now expected to increase in the coming years, the probability of larger solar storms. In a couple of years we will enter a new “solar maximum”. – We installed this during a “solar minimum”, and are excited to see what will happen now that it is drawing to a close. Both how the network performs and what we get measured. It is usually the storms that occur every 500 to 1,000 years that are feared. And that projects like this can arm us against. – Getting a good notification service is what we want. – It is particularly important for the electricity industry to be able to monitor and supervise, so that they can quickly find out what measures to put in place when solar storms hit. Will there be more northern lights in the coming years That we are moving towards a more active period on the sun, confirms Pål Brekke. After a few quiet years, we are now entering a new solar cycle. NORTHERN LIGHTS IN VESTERÅLEN: Jens Andre Mehammer Birkeland took this photo last year. Now he is excited about how the next few nights will be. Photo: Jens Andre Mehammer Birkeland / Vesterålen Tours A cycle that is likely to be fiercer than expected, he says. – A few experts have said that this will be quite a strong cycle. They are the ones who seem to get it right. – The sun has been more active than the models would indicate. In the last year, the sun has been far above what has been estimated. That’s good news for aurora hunters. Northern lights photographer Benny Høynes expects that there will be more eruptions in the coming years, before the peak is reached in 2025. – In the next few years, this will be good news for northern lights photographers.
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“Cannibalistic” solar storm at full speed towards the earth – news Nordland
