The case in summary: Last winter was the coldest in over ten years in Norway, with several weather stations setting cold and rainfall records. Researchers at Britain’s Meteorological Institute Met Office believe that the winter weather in Norway and Great Britain changes as a result of El Niño or La Niña, global weather phenomena that occur in the ocean and atmosphere. El Niño tends to produce colder and drier winters, while La Niña produces milder and wetter winters in Northern Europe. The research shows that the ENSO pattern has a delayed effect on the climate in the North Atlantic, changing the chances of cold or warm winters in the UK and Norway. Rasmus Benestad, climate researcher at the Meteorological Institute, is not convinced of a systematic connection between La Niña, El Niño and the weather in Norway. Benestad believes that the weather system is complicated and chaotic, and that it is difficult to predict the chaotic fluctuations in the weather. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAI. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. Landslides, shiny roads and parked electric buses. Closed schools, canceled flight and boat routes. All this as a result of cold, snow and extreme weather. Last winter was the coldest in over ten years in Norway. Several weather stations set cold and rainfall records. Among other things, a cold record was set in Oslo. Where it was measured below minus 31.1 degrees. Now researchers at Britain’s Meteorological Institute Met Office believe they have found the explanation for why it was so cold in Norway last winter. At the same time, the researchers believe this year’s winter will be milder, wetter and with more storms. It was forskning.no that mentioned the matter first. Pacific storms are the answer According to the British researchers, the winter weather in Great Britain and Norway changes for a whole year as a result of El Niño or La Niña. El Niño and La Niña are global weather phenomena that occur in the ocean and atmosphere. La Niña helps to cool large parts of the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, the phenomenon contributes to wind, rain and changes in the atmospheric pressure. El Niño contributes to the opposite climate effect. Every three to five years, the Pacific changes from La Niña to El Niño. The cycle is known as ENSO. – Often, but not always, a cold winter in Norway is accompanied by a cold winter in Great Britain. This is because seasonal weather patterns are much larger in scale than the daily weather variations. It is these large-scale patterns that we are trying to predict, and ENSO is one of the important factors. This is what professor and researcher behind the study Adam Scaife says to news. Scaife says that it is already well established that El Niño tends to produce colder and drier winters, while La Niña produces milder and wetter winters in Northern Europe. However, the new research shows that the ENSO pattern has a delayed effect on the climate in the North Atlantic. It changes the chances of cold or warm winters in the UK and Norway. – El Niño tends to lead to a cold winter when it is active, and a milder winter the following year. The opposite is true for La Niña. The important thing to note is that this is not just due to the fluctuating nature of the El Niño and La Niña cycle, as the effect is too great for that. – This is only part of the puzzle in long-term forecasting, but it will be important to get this right in our computer models if we want the best forecasts. Whether Norway will actually have a mild, wetter and stormy winter does not seem to be set in stone. – We don’t know for sure, but this new mechanism increases the chances of a milder and wetter winter. Of course, there are other factors, and official winter weather outlooks tend to be issued in November, one month before the winter from December to February. – Not convinced – I am not completely convinced that there is any systematic connection between La Niña, El Niño and the weather in Norway. This is stated by climate researcher Rasmus Benestad at the Meteorological Institute. – The danger with such studies that are based on correlation is that if we look long enough, we will easily be able to find some things that coincidentally correlate with each other. Rasmus Benestad, climate researcher at the Meteorological Institute. Photo: Hallvard Norum / news Benestad says that the weather system is complicated and chaotic with a lot of “noise”, which means that we can easily perceive things as being connected, even if they are not. – Do you think this year’s winter will be milder, wetter and with more storms? – We are experiencing long-term warming, but the weather will still fluctuate around this trend. It is these chaotic fluctuations that are difficult to predict. – Can we expect more accurate long-term forecasts for the coming winters? – Doubt it. – But as with all science, a real connection will be established when several people arrive at the same answer independently of each other. Then we will also become better at making seasonal forecasts, something that has not been successful so far. Published 18.10.2024, at 20.55
ttn-69
British researchers believe we are facing a stormy winter – news Nordland
