It was a victory, but it was no triumph. For the left’s major goal was to decide the battle for presidential power in yesterday’s election. Now there will be a rematch on 30 October – between Lula da Silva and the incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro. It is true that Lula received about as many votes as the pollsters had predicted – 48 percent. But Bolsonaro’s result was far better than expected – 43.5 percent. Jair Bolsonaro made a far better choice than most polls suggested. Photo: EVARISTO SA / AFP Thus, it is completely open before the second round of voting. And the controversial president can still be re-elected for four years. Bad readings For several months, some of Brazil’s best-known pollsters, Ipec, Poder Data, Ipespe, Datafolha, Quest and others, have been telling us that Lula was going to win a clear victory. In several of the measurements, the lead has been up to 15 percentage points. And on average it has been around 10. In yesterday’s election, Lula won by just over five percentage points. Those who missed the most were the Bolsonaro family’s preferred institute, Brasmarket, which predicted that Lula would get 30.9 percent in the election. The correct answer is just over 48. A Lula supporter follows the counts after last night’s election. Photo: ANDRE BORGES / AFP In any case, we see that figures that have been considered reliable, and used by leading media around the world – also by news – did not capture Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity to a small extent. It is an important lesson to take with us as we now embark on another four weeks of election campaigning here in Brazil. What will happen? This year’s election campaign, which also concerns the election of state governors and members of the Senate and Congress, has been described as the dirtiest people here in Brazil can remember. And it is unlikely to get any better in the run-up to the second, and decisive, round of elections. Blood has already flowed in the battle between the right and the left. Several people have been killed, and there is unfortunately reason to fear that it will happen again. Long queues at the polling stations meant that the count after the election was delayed. Photo: ANDRE BORGES / AFP For Lula da Silva and his campaign, yesterday’s election result was undoubtedly a wake-up call. In recent weeks, pollsters and leading media have taken Lula’s victory for granted. Now he must fight for every vote until the moment of truth on October 30. Can he stand to lose? Yesterday’s surprisingly good election result for Jair Bolsonaro does not mean that the euphoria that characterized Brazil four years ago is still present. At the time, there was a powerful political wave that washed over the country, giving 56 million votes for the controversial right-wing populist. Jair Bolsonaro casts his vote in Rio de Janeiro yesterday. Photo: Andre Coelho / AP But he is still popular, and he still has strong cards in his hand – as the supremely strongest position on social media among Brazil’s politicians. On the other hand, one should not forget that he actually lost this first round of voting, and that he therefore has an even greater challenge than his opponent before the next one. And the question that largely characterized yesterday’s election still remains: What will he do if he loses?
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Bolsonaro can still be re-elected as president – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
