The matter in summary The population in Northern Norway has decreased in recent decades, especially among those aged between 20 and 40. Researchers have found a connection between the number of “nice summer days” and population growth in Norwegian municipalities. This is the first time that researchers in Norway have demonstrated a connection between climate and population development. Researchers are proposing measures to compensate for the flight south, such as an extra week of holiday. The authorities have previously spent large sums on measures to counteract the flow of migration, but have not been able to stop it. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAI. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. Gaute Fredriksen (48) does not think it is strange that people are moving south. The historian and musician himself moved to Oslo more than 20 years ago. – I miss a lot about Bjerkvik and my part of the country. Mountain. The smell of the sea. The forest in autumn. The midnight sun. – But if this costs snow at the end of May and darkness for months of the year, it is not worth it. Like many other northerners who have moved south, I am a Dark Age refugee. Migration southwards 50 years ago, 12 per cent of Norway’s population lived in northern Norway. Today, only 9 percent of us are northerners. There are now more residents over 65 than under in Nordland. Troms and Finnmark will reach the same tipping point in 2026. In 2030, Northern Norway will have more elderly people than children and young people. The reason is that they leave Northern Norway between the ages of 20 and 40. But why do people escape from Northern Norway? The two professors, Thor-Erik Sandberg Hanssen and Finn Jørgensen, decided to find out. Professor emeritus Finn Jørgensen and fellow professor Thor-Erik Sandberg Hanssen at the Business School at Nord University in Bodø are the first researchers in Norway to quantify the importance of the climate for where people want to live in this country. Photo: Nord University The researchers have gone to work scientifically. – It was obvious to take a closer look at something that “everyone” talks about, but that no one can do anything about. Namely the climate in Northern Norway. The northern Norwegian weather with short and cold summers, long winters and dark times. Could it be the “elephant in the room”? For the first time, a link between climate and population development has been demonstrated – The weather is important to people, there is no doubt about that. If you ask someone how the summer has been, the answer is often linked to how the weather has been, says Professor Hanssen. The researchers sat down and compared the number of “nice summer days” per year and the population development in Norwegian municipalities between 2011 and 2021. – Oslo is the municipality in Norway with the best weather, measured in terms of the number of nice summer days. The opposite extreme is Vardø. With the same number of “nice summer days” as Oslo, Tromsø and Bodø would have respectively 4231 and 2632 more inhabitants on 1 January 2021 than they actually had. In an analysis, the researchers write that the number of fine summer days per year had a positive effect on the municipalities’ population development. – Our results suggest that if Northern Norway had had as many “nice summer days” as the areas around Oslo, population growth in the region could have been more than twice as high as it was between 2011 and 2021, says Hanssen. In the past, studies from Europe have demonstrated a negative correlation between high rainfall and population growth. Studies from the USA show that people looking for a home have a higher willingness to pay in areas with little rainfall. Photo: Øystein Arild M Antonsen / news – This means that the climate is an important reason why Northern Norway’s share of the population has decreased in the last ten years. It is the first time that researchers in Norway have demonstrated that there is a connection between climate and population development. Not surprised, Gaute Fredriksen says that he misses the change of seasons in the north and when Storfjellet in Bjerkvik is covered in red leaves. – But there I am a non-functioning person from around October to February. It is not worth living a life with. Therefore, he is not surprised by the research result. Fredriksen has spent half his life in the south and is happy with the local environment, but if Bjerkvik had been on the same latitude as Oslo, he would have liked to live there. Fredriksen says that Karl Johan is in no way as spectacular as the surroundings in the north, but the darkness is unbearable, he believes. Photo: Jens Andre Mehammer Birkeland – I don’t go to cafes, concerts and cinemas. I am not an urbanist. Asphalt underfoot and the sound of trams are therefore not a necessity, because deep down Fredriksen says he is a country boy. – Northern Norway is an important part of my identity, so I am not one of those people who went to Oslo and left it behind, he says, adding that he is very fond of Bjerkvik and the north. How to reverse the trend? In order to counteract the migration flow, the authorities have spent billions of kroner on moving workplaces, introducing lower taxes, the write-off of student loans, higher education offers and reduced employer contributions in the north. Nevertheless, they have not been able to stop the flight from the north. Perhaps because neither money nor laws can do anything about the weather. What shall we do then? – Most people prefer it to be warm and not rain, says Thor-Erik Sandberg Hanssen, who is professor of economics. Photo: Nord University – The authorities cannot influence the climate. Nor can they get most Norwegians to stop liking hot and dry days, says Hanssen. It probably needs stronger lye. And absolutely necessary if the state authorities want there to be settlement in the north. – It is a political question whether one should work to maintain the population. Our research shows that we have to put measures on the table that can compensate for the flight south. An extra week of vacation? Earlier this year, the county council leader in Troms and Finnmark suggested that people in the north should get an extra week’s holiday to compensate for short and cold summers. Regardless of which carrots the authorities tempt with, the researchers at the Bodø School of Economics hope that the analysis can contribute to the population debate. – I think everyone agrees that it is important to reverse today’s negative population trend, says economics professor Thor-Erik Sandberg Hanssen.
ttn-69
Blame bad summer weather for the flight from Northern Norway – news Nordland
