The reaction from the Kremlin has so far been restrained. – This is a qualitatively new situation in terms of the US’s participation in the conflict, says the president’s press spokesman, Dmitry Peskov today. As usual, Vladimir Putin is waiting to comment on an important development in the war himself. But Peskov referred to previous statements by the president. No one knows for sure what the consequences will be if long-range ATACMS missiles hit targets inside Russia. Words are not always followed by action. But we can say something. The Kremlin’s press spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, in close consultation with the President of Russia, on October 8 in Moscow. Photo: Sergei Ilnitsky / Reuters Putin’s threats Peskov mentioned today statements that Putin made in September. He then said that the use of such missiles requires the use of personnel and intelligence from Nato. Use of the missiles therefore meant, according to Putin, that NATO is a “direct participant” in the war in Ukraine. During a meeting of the National Security Council later in September, he took the statement a step further. Russian soldiers train on the use of short-range nuclear weapons, here the Iskander missile. Photo from the Russian Ministry of Defense on 21 May. Photo: AP Putin then said he would consider using nuclear weapons in response to an attack with conventional weapons. It was also no longer a prerequisite that “the state’s existence” is threatened. It was enough that the attack constituted a “critical threat to self-government”. He clarified by saying that it could apply to “massive attacks” with missiles, aircraft or drones. An attack with American rockets against Kursk county will hardly threaten the country’s existence, but it threatens self-government in this county. Zelenskyi’s target Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said yesterday that “the missiles will speak for themselves”. It was his cryptic comment on the reports that the US removed the restrictions on the use of ATACMS. Ukraine has previously used ATACMS missiles against Russian targets on the occupied Crimean peninsula and in the Black Sea. The New York Times writes that the Ukrainians can now use the missiles to attack Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region. Weapons depots, railways and military equipment are also natural targets. Ukraine has occupied parts of the Russian county since August this year. This picture is supposed to show Volodymyr Zelenskyj visiting the front line in Pokrovsk on Monday. The situation here is tense, he writes in a post on social media. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP According to American and Ukrainian intelligence, 50,000 Russian and North Korean soldiers are ready for a decisive counter-offensive. Long-range US missiles could make a difference in preventing them from successfully ousting the Ukrainians. Russian soldiers in a video published by the Russian Ministry of Defense. It claims the photos were taken in Kursk on November 7, 2024. Photo: AP It is unclear whether Biden demands that the missiles be used only against Kursk. But Zelenskyj very likely wants to be free to use them against military targets elsewhere in Russia. The range of the rockets is about 300 kilometers. That is, they cannot reach Moscow. But in return, they can be controlled and they are effective. That is why the US has hesitated It has been a long time since Zelenskyj asked the US and other Western countries for permission to use long-range missiles against Russia. Opponents in the US point both to fear of Putin’s response and concern over shrinking stocks. Several American media outlets write that. – We are trying to avoid a third world war, President Biden is said to have often said. American media reported on Sunday that Joe Biden would for the first time allow the Ukrainians to use long-range missiles they have received from the United States against targets on Russian soil. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP The US had great difficulty convincing allies and the Ukrainians themselves that Putin was actually planning a large-scale invasion. No one is now quite sure where the Russian president’s “red line” goes. But both in Washington and in European capitals, the authorities are preparing. Several possible answers from Putin In the autumn of 2022, US intelligence believed there was a 50 percent chance that Putin would use nuclear weapons, according to Bob Woodward. But there are other possible, just as likely answers that could come from Moscow: Sabotage of Western infrastructure, such as cables and pipelines. Data attack. It doesn’t have to be on large networks, just as easily on small but sensitive ones. Such as networks linked to political institutions. Attacks on Russian oppositionists in exile, such as poisoning. Increased spread of false information about the war and about conditions in Western countries. This happens continuously, both via genuine media and via specially created profiles and websites. In other words, we do not know or the “price tag” for Ukraine being allowed to use the American missiles against Russia. But we also don’t know what Ukraine can gain from it, purely militarily. Published 18.11.2024, at 21.43
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