The front line in the Ukraine war has hardly moved in half a year. Russian forces inside Ukraine are not capable of carrying out any major offensive anytime soon, according to experts and US intelligence. So “everyone” knows what the next step is: A historically large Ukrainian counter-offensive. A Ukrainian counter-offensive is expected during the spring or summer. Here, Ukrainian soldiers train along the front line near Bakhmut. Photo: Roman Chop / AP Only after the air has run out of the balloon on this one, can Russia gather the troops again and plan the next move. Therefore, Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Defense Staff School, believes that the most important arena to follow in the Ukraine war going forward is not the front lines. It’s not even in Europe. The White House – It is this perspective that you must begin to understand, says Heier to news. The war in Ukraine has had major consequences for the international community, including in the form of increased prices for food and energy. But what happens in the rest of the world can also affect the course of the war, Heier believes. – The most important arena to follow in the Ukraine war is perhaps Washington DC. Russia’s opportunities to win are here. In the capital is the White House, the official residence of the US president. Who sits in the chief’s chair in the Oval Office in the White House could become important for Ukraine. Who lives there can be very important for the development of the war in Ukraine. – It is probably the case that much of Ukraine’s fate may depend on domestic political developments and the presidential election in the USA, says Heier. Putin’s dream When, shortly before the outbreak of war in 2022, Putin declared the two breakaway republics of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states, it provoked strong reactions and condemnation among heads of state in the West. Donald Trump, on the other hand, called it a “brilliant” and “wonderful” move. He has also said that this crisis would never have occurred if he had still controlled the levers in the United States. Vladimir Putin benefits from Donald Trump winning next year’s presidential election in the United States, believes Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Armed Forces Staff School. Photo: Kevin Lamarque The official candidates for next year’s presidential election are not clear, but so far Trump is the clear favorite to become the Republicans’ man. There are also a few percentages that separate the sitting US President Joe Biden and Trump in the polls, with varying favorability, should it be the two who end up fighting for the presidency. Preliminary polls indicate that the presidential election next autumn will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Photo: OLIVIER DOULIERY][JIM WATSON / AFP According to Heier, it is Putin’s dream that Trump moves into the White House again. – This is what Putin is hoping for. This election will be very interesting from Russian eyes. Thus, one can expect unwanted attention from Russia as in 2016, when e-mails were leaked that put Hillary Clinton in an unfortunate light, Heier believes. It is not known what happened or who was behind it when 30,000 of Clinton’s emails were leaked. Facts about Hillary Clinton’s emails In the spring of 2015, it became known that Hillary Clinton used a private email account for work-related correspondence while she was Secretary of State. Clinton did not have an official email account while she was secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. That may have been a violation of US records law, which states that all official correspondence must be preserved for posterity. The matter came to light when a committee in the House of Representatives requested access to Clinton’s email correspondence about the attack on the US embassy in Benghazi, Libya in 2012. 30,000 emails were handed over to the State Department. Clinton regretted the use of a private email server, but pointed out that her predecessors had the same practice. In May, the State Department leveled strong criticism at Clinton in an internal investigation report, which determined that she did not ensure that the email practice was legally approved. On July 5, the FBI closed its investigation. The FBI is not recommending that charges be brought, but determined that Clinton was extremely careless. On 8 July, it became clear that the US State Department was re-opening the investigation into the e-mail case. On August 22, the FBI reported that they have found 14,900 new emails that were not previously known. The FBI warns that it will take several months to go through the correspondence. (Source: NTB) Aid money Trump has previously said that he thinks the US gives too much aid to Ukraine. During the first year of the war, the USA supported Ukraine with over 70 billion dollars, or close to 740 billion Norwegian kroner. Western aid money is important to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Photo: SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP Heier thinks Trump will do something about this if he wins the election in 2024. – If Trump wins the election, it is not certain that the new administration will continue year after year to transfer large sums of money to Ukraine. He believes the Republicans would rather spend the money on other things: – For example, the nearly 40 million Americans who live below the poverty line every day, and to build up the middle class. During a visit to Kyiv in February, Biden promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj to support him no matter what: – Freedom is priceless. It is worth fighting for as long as necessary. And that’s how long we’re going to support you, President, as long as necessary,” Biden said, according to Reuters. The USA’s contribution Sofie Høgestøl is a USA expert and associate professor of jurisprudence at the University of Oslo (UiO). Like Heier, she believes that next year’s election could have major consequences for Ukraine. – The US has provided enormous amounts of aid to Ukraine over the past year. Ukraine would probably not have had the opportunity to defend itself without American aid, says Høgestøl to news. US expert Sofie Høgestøl believes artificial intelligence will be an “x-factor” in the US presidential election. Photo: Geir Olsen / NTB She highlights an analysis made by the Washington Post, which shows where the current presidential candidates in the USA stand with regard to Ukraine. – There you see that there are quite a few who are skeptical about continuing support for Ukraine. Høgestøl believes that foreign policy will be one of the biggest topics in the debates leading up to the presidential election. – Much of what Biden has done is to travel around the world and say that, “America’s back”. Now Europe sees that Trump is on his way back again, and thinks that maybe the US is not back as we know it, says Høgestøl. Points to the “X-factor” While she believes it is still too early to say anything definitive, Høgestøl, like Heier, believes that the spread of disinformation will become a real problem before the election next autumn. – I believe that AI in particular is a big “X-factor”. When I see the “deepfakes” that can be made with AI now, it’s disturbing. This image of what appears to be Donald Trump and a police officer was generated by artificial intelligence. It’s not real. The image was published on Twitter in connection with Trump having to appear in court in New York in March. Photo: Eliot Higgins / Twitter In connection with Trump having to appear in court in the so-called hush money case in March, fake photos of the former president in a scuffle with the police circulated. – In a year’s time, you may want to have fake campaign videos spread online, says Høgestøl.
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Believes Ukraine’s fate lies in the hands of American voters – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
