– I think Russia and the Putin regime will still see the Wagner group as a very important and useful instrument for promoting Russian interests around the world. That’s what Tormod Heier, professor at the Staff School at the Norwegian Defense Academy, says. After the leader of the mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is said to have been on board the plane that crashed on Wednesday evening, many have speculated about what will happen to the notorious group. The Wagner group, which has been an important piece for Putin, consists of 25,000 soldiers. – I think the Kremlin will not discard the operational value that lies in the long-term development of professional combat power, says Heier. The Wagner group was established in 2014, and is based in Russia. They have been involved in many conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and were also involved in Russia’s invasion of the Crimean peninsula and Donbas in 2014 and 2015. Prigozhin’s presumed death is a clear signal to others who want to challenge Putin, believes Tormod Heier, professor at The Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB – Putin has now gained control of this fighting power, and can thus use it in a more controlled way, Heier believes and believes that the Wagner group can now be placed under even stronger political control. Heier believes Putin will install a leader who is more loyal to Russia’s political leadership, and in that way use the soldiers where Russia wants more influence, for example in the Middle East and Africa. Clear signal to anyone who wants to challenge Putin Heier believes the supposed death of the former leader of Wagner, Prigozhin, benefits Putin. – Now Putin has gotten rid of a rival, who in many ways moderated the criticism of the way the war in Ukraine is being conducted. Inefficient and incompetent warfare, says Heier. He believes the criticism contributed to delegitimizing and undermining Putin’s power base and thus Putin’s credibility. – The Wagner uprising on 24 June helped to highlight a good number of powerful people in the Russian state apparatus who had sympathies with Prigozhin, believes Heier, and believes that it was then easy to remove these people. In this photo from Mali, published by the French defense forces, three Russian soldiers from the Wagner group can be seen. Photo: AP Heier believes that other people who are more loyal supporters of Putin have most likely been put in central roles now. – It sends an important signal to everyone who is considering challenging Putin about what awaits them. Heier refers to the presumed death of Prigozhin as murder, and believes that it fits into a pattern that we have seen for many decades. Opposition oligarchs who show disloyalty or try to challenge Putin are fired. – We have seen oligarchs who have apparently fallen out of the window. have committed suicide with poison, or hanged themselves in gardens, or who have died in various ways. These are signals that no one can leave the ship here, and that is the same as certain death, says Heier. Wagner’s future in Africa In recent years, Wagner has established itself in several countries in Africa, including the Central African Republic and Mali. There are extremely complex operations they work on in these countries. For these operations to work, you must have an apparatus that is built on more than fear and threats, but also elements of trust and loyalty, says Nupi researcher Morten Bøås. – Wagner’s operation in Africa has generated so much money for the group and Russia, says Bøås, who has no doubt that it has been a form of loyalty bond. Many soldiers will wait and see who will be Wagner’s next leader, believes Morten Bøås, researcher at NUPI. Photo: Christopher Olssøn / Nupi But this trust lies in three places: in the organisation, with the boss (Prigozjin) and with the money. Not necessarily to Russia. – After all, these are mercenaries. It is the money that prevails. – But now that the boss is allegedly dead and gone, what will happen to Wagner in Africa? – Several Wagner operatives probably think “there he smoked, I’m going to work”. They wait and see if there is a new management that they can relate to. Then there will be as little noise as possible, and that will be in the Kremlin’s interest, says Bøås. Breaks out or disintegrates Then there are a couple of other scenarios that he can imagine. Wagner in Africa breaks out and becomes an autonomous organization. They raise the Wagner flag and remember their late leader and honor him. Naturally, this will have major consequences for the Kremlin and Putin. The entire Wagner empire is disintegrating, which could lead to Russia also losing its influence in the region. It will also have consequences for the regimes in Africa that have allied themselves with Wagner. Bøås does not want to speculate on what will happen, but adds a reminder of what Sergej Lavrov did the last time Wagner rebelled in Russia. – Then he was early on in saying that it had some significance for Russia in Africa. He has not done that this time, which is perhaps a little surprising.
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Believes the Wagner group will still be Putin’s useful instrument – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
