This is the case: Sharp decline in Norwegian imports from Russia: The import of goods from Russia to Norway has fallen by over 80 per cent compared to the same period the previous year. This could lead to a re-establishment of trade patterns from the Cold War. Seafood industry increases trade: Although overall imports from Russia have decreased, trade in the seafood industry is increasing. Norway has increased its imports of seafood from Russia, especially frozen cod, which is used, among other things, for clipfish production. Exports to Russia are falling: On the other hand, exports from Norway to Russia have decreased by 15 per cent in the past year. The trade deficit has been reduced, but is still in favor of Russia. Salmon feed and seafood exports are maintained: The export of salmon feed and seafood to Russia has increased. Salmon feed is the largest export product to Russia, and although trade in certain products is decreasing, trade in salmon feed and seafood continues to increase. Flourishing trade with neighboring countries: At the same time as imports from Russia have fallen dramatically, Norway’s trade with Russia’s neighboring countries continues to flourish. Sanctions affect trade: The EU’s sanctions against Russia also affect Norwegian trade with Russia. Norway has joined most of these sanctions. The latest sanctions package is expected to reduce both direct and indirect trade with Russia. The article has been summarized with the help of artificial intelligence and processed editorially. – We are back to a Cold War situation. We are inclined to trade less and less with Russia. This is what trade expert in Agri Analyse, Christian Anton Smedshaug, tells news. news’s review shows that imports of goods from Russia have fallen by over 80 per cent compared to the same time last year. At the same time, an analysis of the flow of goods between the countries shows that the seafood industry in Norway continues to increase trade in seafood with Russia. It may soon come to an abrupt end. Over the past five years, Norway has imported goods from Russia to a value of between NOK 10-15 billion per year. So far this year, Norway has imported goods from Russia worth just over two billion kroner. That is ten billion kroner less than at the same time in 2022, trade statistics from Statistics Norway show. Christian Anton Smedshaug runs Agri Analyse, and is a trading expert. He was also state secretary for climate and energy for a period in 2021. Photo: CECILIE BERGAN STUEDAL / CECILIE BERGAN STUEDAL At the same time, exports to Russia have decreased by 15 percent in the past year. In 2022, the trade deficit, in favor of Russia, ended at NOK 15 billion. Norway still has a trade deficit with Russia, per July this year, of 900 million. This is how news has worked with the figures: news has taken trade statistics per month as a starting point, published by Statistics Norway (SSB). We have looked at the development in imports and exports, between Norway and Russia, up to and including the month of July 2023. The figures are compared with how much trade has been per July in 2022 and all the way back to 2018. A facility on Averøy, owned by the clipper fish producer Jangaard export, in 2022 received large quantities of frozen cod from the Russian freezer trawler fleet. Photo: Torstein Georg Bør Importing Russian cod Norway continues to import fish from the Russian freezer trawl fleet. So far this year, Norway has imported seafood from Russia to the value of NOK 400 million. The vast majority of this is frozen cod. Imports of seafood from Russia increase in value by six percent, compared to the same time last year. In October 2022, news revealed that large quantities of Russian cod are imported to Western Norway to become cutfish. The trade statistics show that the import of frozen cod from Russia has continued into 2023. Ingrid K. Pettersen previously worked for the Norwegian Seafood Council with market access, and is currently an associate professor at the Norwegian Fisheries College. Photo: Eskild Johansen / Eskild Johansen Ingrid Kristin Pettersen, at Norway’s Fisheries College – UiT Norway’s Arctic University, is an expert on market access for fish. She believes it is likely that the cuttlefish industry in Norway is the most important recipient of the products. – We know that it is mostly the clipfish industry that uses frozen cod in the clipfish industry. The fish is thawed, salted and made into cutfish, she says. Exporting salmon feed By far the largest export product to Russia is salmon feed. So far this year, salmon feed producers have sold salmon feed worth NOK 596 million. That is over one hundred million kroner more than at the same time in 2022. In addition, salmon smolt has also been exported to companies in the Murmansk area in north-west Russia. In 2022, the seafood website Intrafish revealed that Norway imported large quantities of input factors for the production of salmon feed from Russia, while the feed producers sent ready-made feed products in return. While the import of goods from Russia for the production of salmon feed has fallen dramatically in the past year, Norwegian feed producers continue to export goods to Russia. Christian Anton Smedshaug is not surprised that the trade in salmon feed and seafood continues to rise. – These are products that are not on the sanctions lists, and thus trade can continue, he says. Norway follows the EU The sanctions regime, which the EU has introduced against Russia, is seriously beginning to make itself felt in the European trade statistics as well. The EU also imports less and less from both Russia and China. The EU’s previously record-breaking trade deficits are leveling off, helped by a drop in imports into the EU zone of 17 per cent last year. Western countries are using a number of instruments to hit Russia economically after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In June, the EU introduced the 11th package of sanctions against Russia, which is expected to further reduce trade between the EU and Russia. In July, Norway joined the sanctions package. The latest sanctions package is expected to also reduce indirect trade with Russia. news’s review also shows that exports to Russia’s neighboring countries continue to increase. This is how much exports from Norway to Russia’s neighboring countries are increasing: The increase in value of export goods from Norway, so far this year as of July 2023, compared to the same time in 2022: Armenia increase + 20% Azerbaijan increase 95% Belarus increase 27% Georgia increase 48% Kazakhstan decrease 7% (up 68% from 2021) Source: Trade statistics from Statistics Norway. Don’t want seafood from “unfriendly countries” After Norway announced in July that it would follow the EU’s latest sanctions package, the Russian authorities decided in early August to add Norway to the list as an “unfriendly country”. The Russian embassy in Oslo writes in an e-mail to news that the listing comes as a result of what they believe are negative measures against Russia. – A countermeasure to unfriendly actions, the Russian embassy writes to news about the measure. At the same time, they reply that the measure will not have an impact on Norwegian-Russian fisheries cooperation. At the same time that Norway was listed as unfriendly, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development announced that Russia will no longer import goods such as processed fish and seafood from “unfriendly nations”, including EU countries, Norway and the USA. In the announcement, the ministry writes that the embargo on seafood imports from these nations will: “free up certain market niches for domestic producers whose capacity allows them to fully meet the needs of the domestic market.” Less interaction – The costs for Russia of introducing new demands and measures against Norway, regardless of whether we are friendly or unfriendly, are getting smaller, says Christian Anton Smedshaug. He believes that the relationship between Norway and Russia is about to go back in time: – The trade pattern from the Cold War has begun to be re-established. Smedshaug believes that less and less trade between the West and Russia will also mean that Russia has less to lose by increasing the conflict with Norway. – The longer time goes by, the less and less the cost to Russia of weakening connections to the West, because the country is reorienting its own trade and value chains, he says.
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– Back to a Cold War situation – news Troms and Finnmark
