It was a startling message when the East African country of Ethiopia announced at the beginning of the year that a ban on importing fossil fuel cars into the country suddenly came into effect. This means that it has been illegal to import cars that run on petrol or diesel into the country for the whole of 2024 – and with that the country is ahead both in relation to other countries in the world and on the continent. While the electric car market is progressing in both Europe, the USA and China, it is progressing somewhat more slowly on the African continent. – We actually don’t have much knowledge about the electric car market in Africa. It is something that has not been investigated to a very large extent, so there is very little data – despite the fact that it is a huge trend that is helping to shape the future of transport and energy systems, says Rose Mutiso. She is research director at the Energy for Growth Hub think tank, which works to find solutions to energy poverty. Together with colleague and research associate Hamna Tiraq, she has looked at how ready the various African countries are to get more electric cars on the roads. Good for the planet and our health But let’s first look at the advantages of electric cars. First of all, they are more climate-friendly than fossil cars – especially if the electricity for the battery comes from green sources such as sun, wind and water – and they are also better for our health. Electric cars pollute the air less than petrol engines do. This creates better air quality in the cities. When it comes to electric cars on the African continent, it is particularly the air quality that can be improved, emphasizes Rose Mutiso. – In many African countries, the transport sector accounts for a large part of the CO2 emissions, but in general the CO2 emissions are very low compared to global standards in the rest of the world. What we found out was that poor air quality is a big problem in African cities, says Rose Mutiso. Poor air quality is a huge problem for public health. Not everyone has a car Nine countries are green on the map that forms the Energy for Growth Hub’s overview of how ready the various African countries are to get more electric cars on the roads. 12 are red. Most are yellow. In other words, far from the entire African continent is ready for electric cars to take the roads. There are several reasons for that. One of the reasons is that several African countries have weak power grids. This means that the electricity produced by the countries does not necessarily reach all parts of the population. Without electricity, it is difficult to charge your electric car. There are also several countries that also struggle with power outages during the day. Beyond that, there are not very many cars in Africa in relation to how many people live on the continent. According to Hamna Tariq, there are an average of 73 cars per 1,000 people in Africa. She calls that number the “motorisation rate”. – When we see that the motorization rate is low, it means that people’s incomes are also low. The market is small, unless people get richer. This does not only apply to passenger cars. It also means that people cannot afford to take public transport. It is common to walk very long distances to get to work, says Rose Mutiso. A golden, green opportunity But precisely the fact that not everyone already has a car can be an advantage. – We have made some analyzes that predict that African motorization rates will double in 2050. There is still a lot of growth in these countries, even if it is from a low starting point. Therefore, there is an opportunity to make the switch now, before there is a larger fleet of cars that need to be converted, says Rose Mutiso. Despite the many challenges, progress is being made slowly in getting more electric vehicles on African roads. – I think we are very much at the very beginning of the electric car revolution in Africa. It has started in some countries with full force, such as Morocco and South Africa. But basically it’s not as widespread as it should be at this point, says Hamna Tiraq. – But it keeps happening. I think many countries have recently taken a step in the right direction, especially in relation to startups. There are many electric car startups popping up all over Africa from the smallest countries to the largest. Good politics happens step by step Back to Ethiopia and the country’s surprising ban on the import of fossil-fuel cars. According to the local transport ministry, the ban has been a success, and the ministry has reported that there are already 100,000 electric cars on the roads. But it may sound too good to be true – at least if you ask Hama Tariq and Rose Mutiso. – Due to the research we have done on all countries in Africa, I am very skeptical of that figure, says Hamna Tariq and refers to the American authority International Trade Administration which writes that there are around 30,000 electric cars in Ethiopia. While Ethiopia’s legislation immediately sounds like good news, a sudden blanket ban is not necessarily the right way to go. – I don’t think there are many political observers who think it is politically smart. It may signal ambition, but good policy is often targeted, happens step by step and does not lead to sudden shocks, says Rose Mutiso. Although Ethiopia is colored green on the map of countries ready to get more electric cars, there are still many challenges. Therefore, one should still think of Africa as part of the green EV revolution – even if it is only in the very beginning phase of starting on the continent. – I think that a big challenge mentally for people is to unite the current Africa with the Africa of the future. Although Africa has low motorisation rates, it is about being ambitious in our thinking, she says.
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As the first country in the world, Ethiopia has banned the import of fossil fuel cars
