The negotiations include, among other things, nuclear power, recognition of Israel and security guarantees. Now they have stopped, reportedly because of Israeli unwillingness to meet Palestinian demands. Since this spring, the top diplomats have flown regularly between Tel Aviv, Washington and Riyadh, and in recent weeks Palestinian leaders have also jumped on the bandwagon. Three Palestinian negotiators were recently in Riyadh to present their demands and wishes. Let’s take the American Dream scenario first. The US has two main allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia, under the authoritarian rule of Mohammed bin Salman, has become the Middle East’s leading state, and Israel has the most innovative economy and the most powerful army. Both countries have long ties to the United States, but unlike other Arab countries in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel. US President Joe Biden is trying to do something about that. His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has been to Saudi Arabia twice to discuss a possible giant diplomatic deal that would change the region. The idea is that Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel in return for substantial US compensation. Among other things, they demand access to US civilian nuclear power technology and a security guarantee from the US. The upside for the US is to tie Saudi Arabia’s great economic power more closely into its sphere, stabilize a troubled region and strengthen the alliance against Iran, as well as draw Saudi Arabia further away from China and Russia. For Israel, recognition by Saudi Arabia would be the major breakthrough in the Arab and Muslim world that it has sought since the establishment of the state of Israel. It will also be a big victory for Biden, which he can take with him into the election campaign next year, although it may be difficult for him to get through an agreement in his own party. If such an agreement is to be implemented, Palestinian rights must also be on the table. Officially, the Palestinians still want Saudi Arabia not to recognize Israel without them also getting their own state. In practice, the talks are said to have revolved around minor things, such as more control over own territory, American support for full membership in the UN and financial support from Saudi Arabia. The last time the Americans negotiated an agreement in the Middle East, the so-called Abrahams agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the Palestinians boycotted the process. This time they have chosen a different tactic, probably more out of necessity than desire. The Palestinians’ cause is weak in today’s world and they themselves are politically divided. There are obviously more reasons for this to fail than the other way around, and the forward is already in trouble. According to the Saudi Arabian newspaper Elaph, Saudi Arabia wants to stop it all because the Israeli government is destroying the possibilities of approaching the Palestinians. US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken has also spoken about the need to create a separate Palestinian state if this is to succeed. The United States under Joe Biden has kept Benjamin Netanyahu and his government at arm’s length. With extreme settlers in the government such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, there is little hope that Israel will give more to the Palestinians, let alone the creation of a separate Palestinian state. The religious Zionists with whom Netanyahu now shares a government office want to take over parts or all of the West Bank. A report we showed here in news shows how the settlers have become more violent and displace Palestinians in occupied territory with impunity. Netanyahu has not yet met Biden, but a talk is now planned in connection with all the heads of state gathering in New York for the UN’s annual meeting. The US insists that the negotiation is still ongoing. There has been speculation as to whether such a gigantic agreement could lead to a coalition government in Israel, but that was perhaps more wishful thinking than a political possibility. The question is whether Biden manages to win over Netanyahu or whether the diplomatic initiative ends up where so many big plans for the Middle East often end up: In the desk drawer.
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America’s giant deal in the Middle East in trouble – Statement
