Throughout history, attempts to stifle innovation often lead to unexpected consequences, as demonstrated in the tale of Ptolemy V, king of Egypt from 204 to 181 BC. Though he cherished the Library of Alexandria, which preserved a vast collection of human knowledge, Ptolemy V felt threatened by the burgeoning Pergamon Library in modern-day Türkiye. In a bid to maintain his edge, he enacted a ban on exporting papyrus.
This action echoes contemporary events, particularly in the ongoing tech rivalry between the United States and China. Ptolemy’s desperate measure caused Pergamon to innovate, ultimately leading to the creation of parchment, a durable medium that secured the survival of many literary masterpieces.
The Modern-Day Parallel
Today, the United States is taking similar steps against advancements in photolithographic technology, aiming to block China’s access to these critical innovations. Just as Pergamon found a way around Ptolemy’s restrictions, China is working diligently to develop its own advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, often referred to as China’s version of an “invention project.”
The Dutch company ASML has monopolized the key technologies necessary for creating advanced chips. However, in light of U.S. efforts to curb China’s progress, former ASML engineers have reportedly begun deciphering the secrets of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology through reverse engineering.
China’s Technological Ambitions
These engineers, utilizing available parts from ASML machines on the alternative market, have developed a prototype capable of generating light in the extreme ultraviolet range, albeit not yet producing functional chips. While predictions suggest that China may achieve chip fabrication capabilities by 2028 or 2030, the prototype remains a critical step toward self-sufficiency.
The challenges ahead are significant; access to precision optical systems controlled by companies like Zeiss will be crucial, but the progress showcased so far indicates that China is not standing still in the face of technological embargos.
Secrecy and Strategy
The development effort is shrouded in secrecy, with reports of hired engineers using false identities to shield their work from scrutiny. This highlights the lengths to which China is willing to go to secure its technological future, reflecting the intense competition in the semiconductor industry.
Furthermore, recruitment practices reveal that at least two ASML employees have faced inquiries from Chinese companies since 2020. While European regulations place limits on ASML’s ability to track its former workers, the company has encountered challenges in protecting its proprietary information. A notable case involved a Chinese engineer who was ordered to pay $845 million for stealing trade secrets, yet continues to work in Beijing under the auspices of the Chinese government.
Lessons from History
The narrative of Ptolemy V serves as an essential guide in today’s context. Just as Ptolemy’s policies inadvertently fostered the innovation of parchment, hindering technological progress may propel rival countries to enhance their capabilities. The pressing question is whether China can indeed emerge as the modern-day Pergamon, crafting its own version of technological advancement.
In discussing ASML’s influence, it’s clear that the global semiconductor landscape is poised for significant changes. With the ongoing tensions between Eastern and Western tech powers, the next few years will determine the trajectory of innovation in the industry. The resilience shown by China throughout its challenges could lead it to emerge not only as a competitor but potentially as a leader in advanced chip technology.