India and Pakistan have a combined 325 nuclear weapons. That is only 2.5 percent of the world’s total stock of around 13,000. The two neighboring countries are constantly rattling their sabers, and briefly went to war in 1999. If, for example, they use only a third of their nuclear weapons, 3.6 million Norwegians could lose their lives. Not from the radiation and the direct effect of the explosions, but from hunger. That’s what it says in a recent report from International Doctors Against Nuclear War (IPPNW). The report is based on 21 different peer-reviewed studies that have considered the effects of so-called nuclear winter and nuclear famine. Kim Scherrer, postdoctoral fellow in life sciences at the University of Bergen. Photo: Waldemar Snela / Waldemar Snela – Important to understand Kim Scherrer has helped write the study that is most cited in the report. She believes the report is important, even though many would say that the probability of nuclear war is low. – As long as nuclear weapons exist, there is a real risk that they will be used. Regardless of whether a nuclear war is started on purpose or by mistake, the consequences are enormous, says Scherrer, who researches life sciences at the University of Bergen. She says the research should be leading in how countries design their nuclear weapons policy: – In order to have a responsible nuclear weapons policy, it is important that we understand what it means to use nuclear weapons, says Scherrer. Global cooling According to the report, a “limited nuclear war” will create enormous dark clouds of ash and soot. 100 relatively small nuclear weapons can create 5 million tonnes of ash, which will then rise into the stratosphere. These clouds will then lay like a blanket over the earth and block much of the sunlight, not unlike an eruption from a large volcano or a forest fire. The calculations for how much ash will be created are based on estimates of how much combustible material is in the impact areas of the atomic bombs. The effect will be a global cooling of 1.8 degrees, and at least five years of poor crops, a study from Nasa shows. The report looks at the consequences under several different scenarios, where different numbers and types of nuclear weapons are used. If you increase the amount of nuclear weapons to, for example, 500 large nuclear weapons, you get ash clouds of a total of 47 million tonnes, and a global cooling of 6.5 degrees. A new ice age. BAD CROP: Pictures like this, where a farmer on Kløfta shows off a poor grain crop in 2018, would become very common in Norway if a limited nuclear war takes place. Photo: Gorm Kallestad / NTB Hunger According to the report, the cooling and the ash clouds will lead to famine disasters “unparalleled in world history”. If 250 small nuclear weapons explode, global food production will drop by 23 percent, measured in calories. EXPOSED: The map shows the countries in the world that would be hardest hit by nuclear starvation if 250 medium-sized nuclear weapons were detonated. If 500 large nuclear weapons explode, food production will drop by 48 percent. In the report, you will find an overview of how many people will starve under the different scenarios. Norway is one of the most exposed countries. In the four scenarios where most nuclear weapons are used, 96 per cent of the Norwegian population could die of starvation. – Norway is particularly vulnerable to such changes in the climate because the country is far in the north and already has a cold climate. If you get a cooling of, for example, five degrees, it will be incredibly difficult to grow anything, explains Scherrer. The study has been based on an assumption that no international trade takes place. – We have done this because if global food production falls so dramatically, most countries will try to meet their own needs first, says Scherrer. Damages the ozone layer In addition to starvation and cooling, the ash clouds can react with the protective ozone layer in the atmosphere. The ozone layer seen from the International Space Station ISS. Photo: Nasa A limited nuclear war could cause 25 per cent of the ozone in the ozone layer to disappear. In the northernmost parts of the world, the danger is even greater. Up to 70 percent of the ozone can disappear there. At the same time as there will be less sunlight, we will be exposed to more UV radiation. Among other things, it leads to skin cancer, cataracts, and a weakened immune system. UV radiation also prevents plants from growing, which will further exacerbate the starvation disasters resulting from cooling. – A big warning Tuva Krogh Widskjold is coordinator of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) in Norway. Tuva Krogh Widskjold is coordinator for ICAN in Norway. Photo: Thomas Kjøndal / Thomas Kjøndal – This report is a big warning, she says. Widskjold believes that the report differs from the research that has been seen before. – It is the first time that you can see the effects of a so-called “limited” nuclear war in each individual country, such as Norway. Even such a “limited” nuclear war could lead to 2 billion people losing their lives, she points out. Widskjold urges the government to change course. – The first thing you can do is stop legitimizing nuclear weapons. We leave a handful of state leaders with the opportunity to wipe out the world as we know it. We can put an end to that, she says. – We can distance ourselves from nuclear weapons, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons. We can also be much tougher in the requirements for disarmament for the nuclear-weapon states, suggests the ICAN leader. – Must take this research seriously Kjølv Egeland is researching nuclear weapons security at Sciences Po university in France. Postdoctoral fellow in nuclear weapons security at Sciences Po in Paris, Kjølv Egeland. Photo: Private – The most important thing here is that we take this research seriously. A number of assumptions have been made, but the general findings have been made by so many, different research groups, that it is difficult to escape the seriousness of them, he says, and adds: – After all, these are the best models we have for to simulate the effects on the climate of a nuclear war. They have gone through peer review, and have been published in very solid journals. Egeland also points out that there have been attempts to undermine research into the climate effects of nuclear war before. – Since the concept of nuclear winter was created in the early 1980s, there have been major campaigns to undermine this research, says the postdoctoral fellow. – But what is quite dramatic is that for a very long time we have lived in a world with many thousands of nuclear weapons, without knowing what the consequences of using them would be, points out Egeland.
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A “small” nuclear war between India and Pakistan could kill two out of three Norwegians – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
