From above it can almost look like a weather phenomenon. But the white bubbles on the surface of the Baltic Sea are interpreted by most as a tangible expression that the conflict in Europe is spreading to new areas and becoming more dangerous. When the first news reports came in the morning hours on Tuesday about a gas leak from the two pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2, it did not take long before the heads of government concerned were out in the media to tell us what they knew. Mette Frederiksen in Denmark said early on that it was difficult to imagine that three leaks at the same time could be accidental. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki followed up by saying that this was an act of sabotage. Signal Later in the evening, our own Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre made similar observations. The Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson did the same. From a central position in the EU, it was warned that any attack against the EU’s energy supply will be met with harsh reactions. From the other side of the Atlantic, the United States came with assurances that it will assist its European allies. All this shows how serious the situation is considered by our own authorities. No one says anything about who is behind it, and emphasizes this clearly, but the way it is talked about is easy to interpret in the direction of Russia being suspected. Russian authorities have denied that they are behind the explosion in the Baltic Sea and the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2. Here, President Vladimir Putin. Photo: SPUTNIK / Reuters In that case, it can be seen as a Russian signal or a threat: “Look what we can do”. “See what we are capable of”. However, the Russian authorities have denied that they are behind it, and call the accusation “predictably stupid and absurd”. Hybrid war These two pipelines were certainly not in practical use, but many other pipelines are. If Russia is behind it, this will be a good example of a hybrid war that constantly finds new forms. A hybrid war is a conflict that is fought without open hostilities, and in which no one can be directly linked to actions or actions that are carried out. It gives the parties the opportunity to harm the other party, and also to choose how hard they want to fight back. A bit like a cautious but very risky game of long chess. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. Photo: TT NEWS AGENCY / Reuters It was therefore interesting to hear that the Swedish side was keen to emphasize that the alleged sabotage did not take place in Swedish territorial waters, but within the economic zone, and thus could not be considered a declaration of war. In a hybrid war, all actors want to have as much room for maneuver as possible. Norway largest It is not unnatural to put this in context with the Ukrainian progress on the battlefield, the Russian mobilization of reservists and a presumably imminent illegal Russian annexation of Ukrainian areas. Part of the picture is also recent threats about the use of nuclear weapons from Russia. After the setbacks around Kharkiv, this can be seen in sum as an attempt to recover from the offensive, both politically and militarily, and a signal that Western support for Ukraine comes with a high price. Perhaps the Russian authorities are betting that the pressure will make European countries care more about their own security and stability than supporting Ukraine. It was also an interesting coincidence that the leaks were discovered on the same day that another gas pipeline was opened in the Baltic Sea, namely the one that connects Norway with Poland. The EU calls this a key project for energy security in Europe, and Norway is now the largest exporter of gas to the continent. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Polish President Andrzej Duda during the opening of the Baltic Pipe pipeline, which will transport Norwegian gas via Denmark to Poland. Photo: STRINGER / AFP Varsko It is a reminder, to the extent that it was necessary, of the strategic importance of Norwegian oil and gas and the associated infrastructure for our neighbours. With that comes both influence, responsibility and an increased threat image. Perhaps what happened in the Baltic Sea was primarily a possible warning about what could happen in the North Sea. We probably won’t find out who is behind the explosions in the Baltic any time soon. Actors other than the one many find it natural to point to cannot be ruled out either. It is necessary to make reservations, but most things indicate that we are entering a new and more dangerous time in Europe.
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A possible warning – Statement
