– Everyone is really now waiting for the big Ukrainian counter-offensive with offensive, mechanized brigades, which can break through the Russian defense forces. This is what Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Defense Staff School, told news. – This could be a historic moment in Ukraine’s national history, says Heier. The infamous mercenary group Wagner says they will soon withdraw from Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces fire on Russian forces along the front line near Bakhmut. The picture was taken on 3 May this year. Photo: LIBKOS / AP Russia also says on Friday that it has begun evacuating families with children and elderly people from the front line in southern Ukraine. The reason is said to be that Ukraine has stepped up shelling of settlements along the front, especially in the Zaporizhzhya area. This is claimed by Yevgeny Balitsky, who is Russia’s commander in the area. Ukraine has not yet commented on Balitsky’s claims. Ukraine has built up a land brigade consisting of 12 brigades with up to 7,000 soldiers, tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, engineer soldiers, drones and satellites, Tormod Heier believes. Photo: LIBKOS / AP Russian forces worn out According to Heier, the front in the Ukraine war has hardly moved in the last six months. – The reason for that is that Russia has no more offensive mechanized attack forces left, says Heier. The roughly 1,000 kilometer long front makes up around 18 percent of the country, and stretches through Donbas, from the areas around Kharkiv in the northeast to Kherson in the south. This is what the front line in Ukraine looks like on Friday 05 May this year. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (05.05.2023) This is what the front line in Ukraine looks like on Friday 5 May this year. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (05.05.2023) – Poor leadership, poor planning and weak resupply have meant that the vast majority of the forces that could have moved further west through the Ukrainian defense lines and thus controlled larger parts of the Ukrainian territory are worn down, destroyed and used up. Tormod Heier, professor at the Defense Staff School, believes that a Ukrainian counter-offensive is imminent, and that it will be historically large. Photo: ISMAIL BURAK AKAKN / news This is supported by American intelligence, which says that Russian forces in Ukraine are so depleted that they cannot carry out any offensive now. – Capacities the Russians do not have Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø is head of the section for land power at the Norwegian Military Academy. He says the frozen front has given Ukraine a good opportunity to build up. – It seems that Ukraine has run a defense with the fewest possible forces in order to build up new departments and regenerate those that have all been in battle, for what is expected to be a Ukrainian offensive this spring or summer, he says to news. Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø believes a Ukrainian counter-offensive is only weeks away, but says it is unclear where it will hit the Russians hardest. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB Heier at the Staff College estimates that Ukraine has built up a force consisting of 12 brigades with between 5-7,000 soldiers. Ukrainian forces practice advancing with an armored vehicle along the front line in Donetsk in April. They have had plenty of time to build up capacities. Photo: Roman Chop / AP – This, combined with a coordinated and highly experienced management apparatus in Kyiv, means that the Ukrainians are today ready to carry out a counter-offensive with capacities that the Russians no longer have, says Heier. Several possible strategies Heier believes that signs of the Ukrainian counter-offensive are already being seen. He says the Ukrainians have started to probe the terrain along the front to create a picture of where Russia is strongest and weakest. Ydstebø believes there are still a few weeks until the Ukrainians launch their major counter-offensive. First, the mud must disappear and the ground become more amenable to large machines and forces. It is still muddy along the front in Ukraine, which makes it impossible for large machines to move forward. In the meantime, the parties have to get by on their feet, the experts explain. Photo: DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP He thinks the offensive will be about taking less of the front in several places. – You take a place in order to destabilize another, and that’s how you chew your way inward. I think the Ukrainians will weaken the rear Russian areas with long-range weapons such as HIMARS, while at the same time they will try to break through the front to get in, says Ydstebø. Ukraine’s counteroffensive will consist of a combination of artillery, long-range weapons and infantry. Photo: STRINGER / Reuters Heier believes that breaking through in the Mariupol area would be the best strategy. He believes this is also the call from the American forces stationed in Europe. – I don’t think the Americans want Ukraine to take back the Crimean peninsula, because it is so important that then Putin will be forced to threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons in sheer desperation. A possible newly acquired area in Mariupol would also be a good bargaining chip that could force a ceasefire, says Heier. Thus, Russia will have to wait for Ukraine to use up its forces in the counter-offensive, before they can again take the time to gather the troops again and plan the next move, says Heier.
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