There is something backward-looking about Trygve Slagsvold Vedum in the role of serious economics professor who lectures on moderation and responsible financial management. Now everything is about avoiding price rises, inflation and galloping interest rates. The easiest thing for a politician is to spend more money, he exhorted. And he knows what he’s talking about. Many people still have an image on their retinas of the happy-go-lucky SP leader they voted for who had a simple solution to small and large problems. So it’s not just Vedum that has become quite different in a short time. The world and the economic reality have also changed significantly, and in a way that makes it neither easy to understand nor explain. Because there is a lot that can seem backwards. Norway is once again in crisis, but cannot, as before, use oil money to solve it. The state and municipality are flooded with income from oil, gas and electricity, while people and businesses have to pay. The state is rich, but still has to rein in spending. Last but not least. This is a crisis that most people feel in their wallets, and now we will be deprived of purchasing power. Spared from priorities It is a demanding message, and it is not made any easier by the fact that the government led by Vedum is severely behind in its crisis communication. The Finance Minister’s much-criticised calculation at the Debate, in which he claimed that an average family would be better off, has become an example of a misused opportunity to explain why people will have it tighter. Because it will get tighter, and the autumn budget will not be the party we have been waiting for. Vedum’s calculation received a lot of criticism, and many believed it was a missed opportunity to increase understanding of the crisis. Photo: The debate Now the politicians have to do something they have little training in. Politics is about prioritizing, they say, but Norwegian politicians have been spared that. The politician’s dictionary has mostly consisted of everything that is about investing, strengthening or improving. Little is said about what needs to be done less of. In the government’s political manifesto, the Hurdal Platform, for example, the word “strength” is found 115 times and “better” 76 times, while “less” is only used 20 times. “More” is used 172 times and “increase” 63 times, while “fewer” only 3. This materializes in promises to lift the districts, equalize differences, strengthen welfare, cheaper dental care, kindergarten and free after-school. There would be more money for the hospitals, municipalities, GPs, farmers, pensioners, the railway and a wide range of other good purposes. But after Ap and Sp gained power, they mostly had to turn down expectations and cancel election promises. The upcoming budget has already been referred to as “the most difficult of all time”. Many will be disappointed, and Vedum’s job is to make people understand why. When the government meets on the last day of August to set the framework for the state budget, Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp) is the only minister who can feel reasonably confident that his budget will be strengthened. But the war in Europe is no pleasant backdrop for a budget winner. Not an easy message The government has many people to convince that new times require new measures. His support party SV. The rest of the opposition. Their own. And not least ordinary people, also known as voters. To take the last ones first. The opinion polls speak clearly that they have so far been unsuccessful in their communication with voters. They also have a way to go with the opposition. Although many will probably share the concern about the use of oil money at headline level, they are unlikely to cross two fingers to make life easier for the government. When the revised national budget was presented this spring, the opposition spared no expense. The cut proposals were described as “heartbreaking”, “brutal”, “shocking” and “a mockery”. It is not easy to imagine what words they might use about the upcoming budget. The Conservative Party in particular must balance criticism of the government with credibility when it comes to economic management. The government has also shown that it can be whipped into place, for example regarding the proposed cut to the Ocean Space Center in Trondheim. The relationship with SV is a chapter in itself. Frustration has spread in the government that SV does not take the matter seriously. They think SV is too critical and demanding, and gets far too much credit for policies they agree on. Many also blame SV for the fact that the government is struggling with the measurements. In SV, the frustration is no less. They criticize the government for reneging on its promise not to raise taxes, while letting promises of increased welfare fail. A debate that otherwise bubbles under the surface in Ap. SV’s finance policymaker Kari Elisabeth Kaski has also warned against letting the specter of inflation determine too much of the national budget. She believes Norway can tolerate a little inflation. It doesn’t get any easier because SV has Rødt sitting on his left shoulder. Now Støre must show who he can bear to disappoint, writes Rødt’s deputy chair Marie Sneve Martinussen about the government’s tax promise. It was an unusual sight for many when SP leader and finance minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum took on the role of serious economics professor and exhorted for moderation and responsible financial management. Photo: Beate Oma Dahle / NTB Grasrota’s reactions An equally relevant question is whether Ap and Sp manage to convince their own. Something we know lives dangerously are large road and rail projects. The national transport plan has long looked more like a pleasant wish list for Santa Claus than a concrete plan, but now it will be a downturn. The Center Party’s transport politician Erling Sande sent out a test balloon last winter when he advocated investing less in motorways and intercity trains. He mentioned the four-lane motorway in Gudbrandsdalen, Trøndelag, Sørlandet, Hordfast, the bridge over the Sognefjorden and Ytre Intercity as projects that should be postponed or scaled back. The reactions were not long in coming. Local Ap and Sp leaders throughout the country stepped out to spread the word about their project. SP’s county deputy mayor in Trøndelag invited him straight north ahead for a serious talk. The question now is rather whether the seriousness has sunk in for the government’s many mayors and local politicians. They have their eyes firmly fixed on the elections in 2022 and know that they need victories. That Vedum looks more like a finance minister to whom the economists nod in recognition is hardly enough. But it is a big challenge to get victories and profile cases in a tight budget. Putin’s announced priority is also not the whole reason why the political autumn will be demanding. Now the wave of older people is making a serious impact on budgets. Much of the room for maneuver is eaten up by more money for municipalities, hospitals and Nav. Not to make services better, but to keep pace with population growth. That, too, has been announced for a long time. Every four years, the Ministry of Finance has presented a perspective report that discusses challenges for the Norwegian economy. A common feature is that there will be fewer working people behind each pensioner and that oil revenues will decrease. Simply put: Less money to mess around with and a greater need to prioritise. Although few predicted the war, the need to prioritize should not surprise anyone. But that it was Trygve Slagsvold Vedum who would actually do it, hardly anyone had imagined.
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