An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 has been orbiting uncontrollably for over a year, and astronomers predict it will crash into the Moon next August. While this may sound alarming, it poses no danger to Earth. However, this event has reignited discussions about the issue of space debris and its implications for potential lunar habitation.
What Is Happening and When?
The predicted collision is set to occur on August 5 at 8:44 a.m. (Spanish peninsular time). The upper stage of the Falcon 9 will hit the lunar surface at an estimated speed of 8,700 km/h, which is approximately seven times the speed of sound. The impact site is expected to be near the Einstein crater, located on the edge of the Moon’s visible side from Earth.
Origin of the Rocket Stage
The rocket stage in question, designated 2025-010D, was part of a launch on January 15, 2025, which sent two private lunar landers into space: Blue Ghost from Firefly Aerospace and Hakuto-R from the Japanese company ispace. Blue Ghost successfully landed on Mare Crisium on March 2, 2025, marking a historic moment as the first commercial lunar landing, while Hakuto-R lost contact and crashed.
Visibility of the Impact
Despite the Moon being visible to much of the Western Hemisphere during the impact, the flash from the collision will likely be too faint for ground-based telescopes to detect. Bill Gray, the astronomer making these predictions, points out that similar events, such as NASA’s LCROSS mission in 2009, resulted in no observable flash from Earth. The primary scientific interest will arise from studying the fresh crater created by the impact.
Risks and Warnings
The stage measures 13.8 meters in length and 3.7 meters in diameter. Since there is no atmosphere on the Moon, it will reach the surface intact, posing no immediate risk to lunar rovers or other infrastructure. However, Gray highlights a growing concern regarding the disposal of space hardware, emphasizing the need for better planning. Rocket companies could potentially avoid such collisions by sending these stages to heliocentric orbits, where they would pose no threat to the Moon or Earth.
The Future of Lunar Missions
Both the United States and China are ramping up their lunar missions in the coming years, with plans for semi-permanent bases near the Moon’s south pole. The U.S. aims to initiate annual missions with Artemis IV and V starting in 2028, while China intends to have its astronauts on lunar soil by 2030. This significant increase in missions will lead to more rocket launches and unreused stages, amplifying the dilemma of space junk around the Moon.
Historical Context
This isn’t the first time an uncontrolled rocket stage is anticipated to impact the Moon. In a previous instance, Gray predicted a different rocket portion would hit on March 4, 2022, getting the timing right to seconds and the location within kilometers. Ultimately, that object turned out to be a Chinese booster, not a Falcon 9. Continuous monitoring since the 2025 launch has allowed Gray to confidently identify the current stage as belonging to that particular Falcon 9 mission.
As humanity prepares for more extensive lunar exploration, the conversation surrounding space debris becomes increasingly important, especially if permanent infrastructure on the Moon becomes a reality.