The next president of the United States will be the Republican Donald Trump. He has announced a tougher US with higher tariff walls. He has also promised major tax cuts and more gas in the economy. Here are six points about what a Republican government in the United States could mean for the economy. Stock market jubilation In the financial markets, Trump’s victory is well received. In the USA, it is expected to be a very strong stock exchange day this afternoon. The largest stock market indices open clearly: Industry-heavy Dow Jones is up 2.98 per cent S&P 500, which gathers the largest companies, is up 2.05 per cent Technology-heavy Nasdaq is up 1.90 per cent. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are climbing to new records this evening, according to CNBC. The market day started with an upswing in Europe, but in the afternoon the mood soured to a decline. Oslo Børs is down 1.26 percent. Economists point to tax cuts and the hope for more business-friendly policies as the reason for the upswing. But Trump’s policy of increased customs duties abroad and taking on more national debt is not necessarily good news. “The world’s most important interest rate” is the American ten-year bond. It is the interest rate for lending money to the United States with a ten-year term. It has risen, and usually means that companies have to wait for more expensive debt in the future. – Then the stock market shouldn’t go up. I think it is a short-term effect, says investment director Robert Næss at Nordea. The world’s richest man and the Oil Fund are getting richer Tonight, in particular, Trump’s supporter Tesla founder Elon Musk may become even richer. The Tesla share rose 13 percent in pre-trade, in which the Oil Fund is also a major shareholder. – The stock market has interpreted this as meaning that there will now be measures to make Tesla better off, and all other car manufacturers worse off, with taxes and duties on foreign cars , says the investment director. Trump’s own media company rises almost 37 percent. – It’s just a silly company, the way I see it. The company has almost no revenue, very few users and is growing slowly. That the share should have such a high market value just seems completely pointless, says Næss. Norway must wait longer for interest rate cuts In the long term, Trump’s policy may cause the temperature in the American economy to rise again. Then inflation will pick up in the US, and the US central bank will slow down interest rate cuts, economists expect. Norway is an open economy that is strongly influenced by what takes place in the world’s largest economy. Kyrre M. Knudsen in Sparebank 1 Sør-Norge believes that the Trump policy will delay interest rate cuts here at home. – The economic policy Trump stands for, with tax cuts and increased import duties, will raise interest rates in the United States. It contributes to increased interest rates here at home as well, and to the fact that the krone exchange rate will remain weak for longer, Knudsen writes to news. Policy rate in percent The policy rate is set eight times a year by Norges Bank. The policy interest rate governs the interest rates in the banks, and affects your housing costs. The aim of raising the interest rate is for the high prices to come down again. The forecast tells us how Norges Bank thinks interest rates will develop in the future. Read more about sources and reservations here. A higher policy rate means increased expenses if you have a mortgage 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Forecast Norges bank Chief Economist at Nordea Kjetil Olsen, on the other hand, still believes that there will be an interest rate cut in March 2025, and a total of two cuts next year. – Our assessment is that the interest rate outlook for the near term is fairly unchanged for the time being. On Thursday, both Norges Bank and the US central bank will make an interest rate decision. Norway’s economy is strongly influenced by what happens in the USA. On Thursday, central bank governor Ida Wolden Bache will present the interest rate decision. Photo: Eirik Pessl-Kleiven / news Weaker krone against the dollar While other countries have had interest rate cuts this year, Norwegians have had to wait. An increasingly weak krone is one of the biggest problems in bringing price inflation down for Norges Bank. And when Trump’s victory seemed likely, there was a heavy blow to the krone exchange rate. The dollar is more than 1 percent more expensive against the kroner, and costs NOK 11.16 on Wednesday. The dollar has not been more expensive since November last year. Check what it costs Choose a currency: From Danish kroner To Norwegian kroner 160.35 Exchange rates from Norges Bank. Latest rate from 05.11.2024 Senior economist Knut Magnussen at DNB follows the American economy closely, and believes that the dollar is weakening precisely because the market believes that interest levels in America will be higher with Trump than if Kamala Harris won. Higher interest rates mean that the possibilities for returns are also higher. This increases the demand for dollars, and it becomes more expensive to buy dollars. – It could also be that the markets take it into account that there could be better economic development in the US as a result of Trump’s economic policy, and that could also strengthen the dollar, says the senior economist. Steadier price growth Several experts have thus pointed out that Trump’s policy leads to increased price growth in the US, and then it will be more difficult to reduce interest rates. The reason is that spending may increase in the US. Chief economist Kyrre M. Knudsen at Sparebank1 Sør-Norge points out that Trump’s clear plans for higher tariffs, deportation of illegal immigrants and tax cuts. – If he is able to implement most of what he has been elected on, it will probably result in higher inflation in the American economy, he says. Chief economist Kyrre M. Knudsen at Sparebank1 Sør-Norge. Photo: Sparebank 1 It will affect Norway, which is also struggling with high inflation due to the weak krone, according to currency strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen at Handelsbanken. Increased food prices The comparison of food prices and the wage trend says something about whether you get more, less or the same amount for your money. When the development of food prices is higher than the development of wages, it means that food has become more expensive. Both figures are averages for the specified period. Read more about sources and reservations here. How much food prices have increased in the last year, comparison with wage development Can be demanding for Norwegian companies Trump has previously promised tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent on almost all imported goods, and 60 per cent or more on products from China. NHO chief Ole Erik Almlid is worried about world trade, of which Norwegian business is a part, if Trump implements the policy. NHO chief Ole Erik Almlid is concerned about the world scandal, and believes we must link closer to Brussels and the EU. Photo: Petter Larsson / news Almlid believes that Norway must tie itself closer to the EU. Norway cooperates economically with the EU as an EEA member, but risks ending up outside the trade walls if the EU secures good agreements with the USA. – Here we must stand together in Europe to make sure that it does not damage Norwegian and European business more than we can expect, he says. Norwegian companies sell, among other things, seafood, oil, metals and equipment to the USA. Kverneland Group at Jæren in Rogaland sells agricultural equipment. Kverneland Group at Jæren in Rogaland produces agricultural equipment. Part of the equipment is exported to the United States. Photo: Odd Rune Kyllingstad – This relates both to customs and any other trade barriers. All of this can affect global trade. For us, the easiest possible flow of goods across borders is important, says CEO Arild Gjerde. Published 06.11.2024, at 08.59 Updated 06.11.2024, at 15.51
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– Contributes to increased interest rates here at home – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
