A few years ago, I heard one of Norway’s foremost social leaders predict the political future with great conviction. It was red-green. All major global megatrends would favor the left, he believed: Increasing climate commitment, fair distribution and increasingly liberal values. Now I don’t think the person in question (who will be allowed to remain anonymous) is struggling with excessive self-examination, but the world looks quite different today: Climate commitment is falling, private finances are much more important, while skepticism about immigration is increasing. Those who measure our values and attitudes see a clear trend break. For the first time, Norwegian values are moving in a more traditional direction. Those who content themselves with measuring what we say will vote, have seen for a while that the Conservative Party and FRP have a clear majority if the youngest were allowed to decide. To top it all off came the news that 47 percent of young men would vote for Donald Trump. It must be said to come like the famous bolt from the blue. Here at home, you have had to search with lights and lanterns to find someone who openly supports Trump. Hardly anyone is able to make us understand why half the US is voting for him after all. Egner-morality Now, the numbers are admittedly small (110 respondents are men between the ages of 18 and 29), the margins of error are considerable (10 per cent) and, not least, the question itself is hypothetical. They will not vote in the American election, and then it is easier to let loose without thinking about the consequences. It is also anonymous. The numbers are equally startling. Because how does it hold up? Where have the Trump positives been hiding? Although young men have clearly become more conservative, this is hardly about politics or hidden Trump sympathies alone. There is probably a better answer in children’s book author Torbjørn Egner’s universe. To quote the two not particularly recognized influencers Karius and Baktus: Don’t do what your mother says, Jens. There is something about being told daily how dangerous, stupid and lying Donald Trump is. While Kamala Harris is our great hope. Now it is quite frankly not easy to create a balance in the coverage of this very special American election campaign. Equally, people do not like to be told what to think. In any case, don’t get it hammered in with a sledgehammer. It is not without reason that “show, not tell” is often an effective, but somewhat too rarely used, method. People particularly dislike being looked down upon. Perhaps the biggest mistake the Democrats have made is when they have succumbed to the temptation to refer to Trump’s voters as trash or other condescending characteristics. Many believe that Hillary Clinton’s biggest mistake was to refer to half of Trump’s voters as the “basket of deplorables” (hopeless cases, in Norwegian). It can be transferred to domestic conditions, whether they are conservative Christians, disaffected voters (should they prefer Sp, Frp or Red), immigration critics, climate skeptics, EU opponents or members of Nidaro’s social democratic forum. Stupidizing or negative labels can help reinforce a perceived distance between the people and the elite. With that background, it is not surprising that so many young Norwegian men support Trump. The fact that something is perceived as not being allowed to say or think can be completely counterproductive. A bit like a pressure cooker. More than just Tiktok At the same time, right-wing politics are more popular here at home. Across Europe, we see that young people are becoming more conservative. Especially men, but also the women follow. Some have tried to explain Unge Høyre and Fpu’s success in the school elections with the fact that Simen Velle and Ola Svenneby are good at Tiktok. That hardly explains why young people go to the right in the Faroe Islands, in Germany and in Sweden. Ola Svenneby (Right) Photo: Alf Simensen / news Actually reaching your message where the young people are is all well and good. But the message must also hit a nerve. The fact that young people today are moving towards more conservative and traditional values may have some of the same explanation as the surprising Trump sympathies. For many years, it has been liberal values that have dominated the public. It has not been particularly popular to confront more traditional views on, for example, gender, family and equality. Some of the same has characterized the debates about climate and immigration. It is also obvious that so-called woke viewpoints are not as popular anymore. It is therefore natural to read this trend as a kind of counter-reaction. The fact that it comes at the same time as prices have risen and many people have received poorer housing has probably opened the room even more for right-wing positions among the voters. How long the conservative wave will last is (as shown before) difficult to predict. But it can leave a more lasting mark on Norwegian politics. “No country for old men” The aforementioned Ola Svenneby (27) and Simen Velle (23) have long received a lot of attention as debating leaders of Young Conservatives and the Progressive Party’s Youth, respectively. Simen Velle (Frp) Photo: Frode Fjerdingstad / news Although they are different and perhaps as liberal as conservative on many issues, they share the appeal among the young. Both have good chances of ending up in the Storting after the next election. There they can be joined by several KrF politicians who actually live up to the label of young, conservative men. Anyone who has put the dark man stamp on former KrF leader Kjell Ingolf Ropstad can find themselves missing him. Because they won’t necessarily like what comes after. But contemporaries seem to like them better. Joel Ystebø (23) is a self-proclaimed value conservative and is likely to get a parliamentary seat from Hordaland. He has previously said that it is difficult to fight for his primary views on Israel, abortion, marriage and the place of Christianity in politics. Joel Ystebø (KrF) Photo: Simon Skjelvik Brandseth / news He is already one of Bergen’s most prominent politicians, and is described as a brilliant political talent. An election that has a high chance of ending up in the shadow of Tuesday’s presidential election is that Rogaland KrF will decide whether KrFU leader Hadle Bjuland (24) or former Sokndal mayor Jonas Sayed (26) will be the top candidate. Both have long since been declared great political talents, and are solidly placed on the blue, value-conservative side. Jonas Sayed (KrF) Photo: Magnus Stokka Bjuland grew up in a group of seven siblings, in a house of prayer environment that he himself describes as pietistic. His youthful rebellion was not going to Bible school. It caused considerable attention when he, as one of very few in the Norwegian public, said that we had a lot to learn from the tradwife trend. Hadle Rasmus Bjuland (KrF) Photo: Øystein Otterdal / news Whoever wins the parliamentary seat in Rogaland has a great chance of also winning the deputy leader’s race in the KrF. To the extent that it is an office that is experienced as a victory for the party in crisis. In any case, they will give KrF a much sharper and more conservative profile than the party has had in recent years. Where KrF politicians have long had something “sorry I’m Christian-like” about them, the zeitgeist can give these politicians not only more space, but also more self-confidence. They will probably front more traditional messages about family politics, gender, drugs, identity and values in Norwegian politics. Even if the conservative wave were to blow over. Published 03.11.2024, at 8.30 p.m
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