The drips keep coming. Russia is said to have taken the small towns of Selydove and Hirnyk in Donetsk county. A small Russian flag hanging limply from a TV mast in Kruhljakivka in Kharkiv. It is difficult to know what each individual message means. But slowly, slowly, slowly, Russia is gnawing ever deeper into Ukraine’s eastern flank. A “creeping offensive”, it is called. – Within one month, they take an area the size of Oslo municipality, says Palle Ydstebø, head teacher at the section for land power at the Norwegian Military Academy, to news. On October 31, the Russian Ministry of Defense shared a video showing a Russian flag hanging from a television mast in Kruhljakivka, Kharkiv Oblast. Defeat upon defeat In October, Russia occupied almost 500 new square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Not since March 2022, at the very start of the war, has the number been so high, according to AFP. Compared to the whole of Ukraine, it may not be that much. The country is 600,000 square kilometers. – It is under one alcohol per thousand, says Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations at the Norwegian Defense Academy, to news. Russia already controls one fifth of Ukraine’s territory. 500 square kilometers is a small increase. The picture shows areas in Ukraine under Russian control on 31 October 2024. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news But it is a lot compared to the Russians’ progress last year. And Heier believes that it testifies to problems in Ukraine. Lack of ammunition and weapons. Setback when departments must replace each other on the battlefield. – It is war fatigue and wear and tear, says Heier, who emphasizes that the war has begun to eat away at Ukrainian society: – The local communities that experience the war are being emptied of labour. Many flee, and many are mobilized into the military forces. Tormod Heier says that Ukraine is losing ground when new departments are to replace each other at the front. Photo: Aurora Ytreberg Meløe / Aurora Ytreberg Meløe At the same time, the Ukrainians are also experiencing decline in Kursk, the Russian county they invaded at the beginning of August. There, the Russians are now also receiving assistance from soldiers from North Korea. Unwavering support from North Korea The US believes that there are already 8,000 North Korean soldiers in Kursk. This was said by the American diplomat Robert Wood in a meeting of the Security Council on Thursday, Reuters reported. Different countries have reported different numbers of North Korean soldiers. Russia and North Korea have not confirmed the information. But on Friday, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui visited his Russian colleague Sergey Lavrov in Moscow. – We promise that we will stand firmly by our Russian comrades until victory day, Choe said at the meeting, Reuters reported. Some believe that the Russians’ many small victories may eventually lead to a breakthrough. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Friday. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry / AFP Creeping closer The war in Ukraine is now at a “critical turning point”, writes Mykola Bielieskov in an analysis for the American think tank Atlantic Council. Bielieskov is a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine, which is subordinate to the president, and a senior researcher at the organization Come Back Alive, which provides equipment for Ukrainian soldiers. On October 24, Russia’s Ministry of Defense shared this photo of Russian soldiers in the Kursk region. Photo: Russia’s Ministry of Defense / AP Bielieskov gives several reasons why things are not going well for Ukraine: Russia has access to ammunition and soldiers. And President Vladimir Putin is willing to pay a high price in the form of heavy losses for tactical victories. Russian glide bombs have caused great damage in Ukraine. Ukraine has lacked soldiers and there have been weaknesses in the defense works. There have been major delays in deliveries of Western weapons and other aid to Ukraine. But it’s not just all the small, creeping tactical victories that give Putin an upper hand, Bielieskov believes. Like Tormod Heier, Bielieskov highlights the consequences that two and a half years of war and destruction have had on Ukrainian society. – What is decisive is that Russia’s local victories in Donbas gradually undermine the morale of Ukraine’s population, he writes. On October 30, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry shared this photo showing front-line soldiers deploying landmines and other defensive works near Chasiv Yar in Donetsk. Photo: Oleg Petrasiuk / AP Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug also agrees that the war this year has mainly gone Russia’s way. Also when you include Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk. – In 2024, in my opinion, Russia has improved its position to a large extent at the expense of Ukraine, says Dalhaug to news. He is also worried about one thing in particular: – There are no aid packages or laws for Ukraine that have any potential to turn the tide. Retired lieutenant general Arne Bård Dalhaug says that the war in Ukraine has slowly gone Russia’s way in 2024. Photo: Kristin Thrane “Decisive phase” Ukraine is now facing an even tougher winter after Russia has destroyed infrastructure related to energy, according to Dalhaug. But several open questions make it difficult to predict developments: How will the West react to the support and soldiers from North Korea? How will cooperation between Russia and North Korea develop? What will Joe Biden do in his final months as President of the United States? Can he allow Ukraine to use long-range US weapons against targets on Russian territory? What kind of support will Ukraine get if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election next week? – I believe that we are in a decisive phase to see which way the war is tipping, says Dalhaug. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump shook hands when Zelenskyy visited Trump Tower in New York in September. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP But he does not deny that Russia also faces challenges. The autumn’s progress has probably come at a high cost. In September, Russia experienced the largest daily losses since the start of the war, wrote British intelligence on X. They estimated that almost 40,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured during the period. One more thing can affect the situation: the weather. Will late autumn bring rain showers that could prevent a Russian advance? – Since we are entering the wet mud season, it does not appear very likely that Russia will suddenly make great progress, says Dalhaug, and continues: – So it is probably likely that we will continue to see this gradual progress. Especially because Russia does not have access to large, mechanized forces. Interested in abroad? Listen to the foreign affairs editor’s podcast: Published 01.11.2024, at 19.20 Updated 01.11.2024, at 19.25
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