Israel attacked military targets in Iran last night, but the attack was far milder than Israel is capable of. While many are breathing a sigh of relief, Middle East expert Dag Henrik Tuastad does not believe that Israel wants a de-escalation. – I think they are now hoping that Trump will win the election, and then carry out what is their goal, namely to remove Iran as what they perceive to be an existential threat. Dag Henrik Tuastad is a Middle East expert. Photo: Håkon Benjaminsen / news From ping pong to knockout He believes that Israel will no longer engage in ping pong retaliation, as they have done in the past. – They have switched to a type of boxing match against their enemies, where they try to get a knockout, says Tuastad. He explains that Israel has so far managed this against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah in the north, both of whom have been greatly weakened. Now the main enemy remains Iran. – What is the existential threat to Israel is the nuclear weapons potential of Iran, says Tuastad. Israel probably does not have the capacity to crush this threat alone. – To carry it out, you have to coordinate attacks with the US, says Tuastad. The citizens of Tehran returned to their everyday lives a few hours after Israel attacked the country last night. The sign on the building has an anti-Israel message. Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP Waiting for Trump The Middle East expert feels that it will be difficult for the Israelis to do what they really want as long as the Democrats are in power in the US. He believes they are waiting for the right moment and hoping for support from Trump to implement his plan, if he wins the election. – The last time Donald Trump was president, he was keen to say that there was more peace in the world when he was at the helm. Is he likely to support a massive Israeli attack on Iran? – It is uncertain. He is unpredictable, so that is the problem for Israel, but he has said that Israel must attack the nuclear facility, says Tuastad. Iran has a standing army of half a million soldiers. The picture is from an annual military parade in Tehran, September 21, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour / Reuters He elaborates that the US and Israel have trained for such scenarios. – Will Iran not have anything to stand up to, if the US were to join an attack against them? – Yes, that’s clear. They have a standing army of over half a million, so the regime will not fall easily, says Tuastad. Destabilization He explains that there is not really anyone in Iran who can replace the Islamic Republic as of now, but that Israel is probably exploring other options than direct attack. The Israelis may attempt to create chaos and instability in Iran, for example by allying with Iranian resistance groups. Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally just days before the United States decides who will be the country’s next president. Photo: Paul Sancya / AP – Such destabilization threatens world peace and security elsewhere, but it is a bit like the Arab Spring. When it turned into counter-revolution, it was good news for Israel, says Tuastad. Then Israel could operate without interference. – They have a perspective on the region that is based only on national interest, says Tuastad. The US, for its part, does not want chaos in Iran. This image has been verified by news and shows southern Tehran. Photo: TELEGRAM – Destabilization and civil war can lead to the emergence of areas where terrorist groups can establish a base. Collapse of states is even worse than states that are hostile to the United States, says Tuastad. Iran has said it will respond to Israeli attacks, but it is uncertain whether it will take decisive action. Tuastad believes Israel will take the opportunity to hit Iran when the time is right, and does not discriminate against attacks from Tehran or its partners. – After the drone attack on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence in Israel, he said that an attack by Hezbollah is an attack by Iran, says Tuastad. On Saturday, Hezbollah fired around 80 rockets at Israel. Iran can Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP Published 26.10.2024, at 14.51
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