A document stamped as top secret has been shared on the messaging service Telegram. It contains detailed descriptions of what are supposed to be Israel’s preparations for an attack against Iran. The documents are said to have been leaked from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGIA) and the National Security Agency, both of which are under the Ministry of Defense in the USA. The document was shared on Telegram before the weekend. Sources with knowledge of the documents say they have been leaked from American intelligence services. Photo: Middle East Spectator / Telegram / Middle East Spectator / Telegram Photo: Middle East Spectator / Telegram / Middle East Spectator / Telegram Close to victory Kjelder tells CNN that the leak is “deeply disturbing”. Israel has announced that it will retaliate against Iran’s rocket attack on them on 1 October. These are the leaks The intelligence documents are dated 15 and 16 October. They are labeled “top secret” and have markings indicating that they should only be seen by the United States and the allies in the “Five Eyes”, which are Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Great Britain. According to the report, the US has observed the Israeli air force handle at least 56 ballistic missiles and several air-to-ground missiles since October 8, which should indicate an “imminent attack” against Iran. It has also been observed that the air force is carrying out large-scale exercises. The document is said to have first been leaked in a private channel with around 7,000 members on Friday 17 October, before the open channel “Middle East Spectator” picked it up and shared it with its then 140,000 members. Don’t be surprised Hanne Eggen Røislien is a researcher at the University of Defense and has researched the Israeli army. She thinks the leaks are stuck. – It is very detailed, what is written there, and it must have been leaked. It is unfortunate for everyone that the purely operational plans are leaked, she says. Hanne Eggen Røislien thinks the leaks have been contained, but not that it means there will be war between Iran and Israel now. Photo: Aurora Ytreberg Meløe / Aurora Ytreberg Meløe She does not want to speculate on who might have leaked the document, or why. But she is not the least bit surprised by what is written in them. – This should not come as a surprise to anyone. The Israeli army started planning this already in October last year. Fixed recipe If you look back at the attacks Israel has carried out in Gaza and Lebanon, they have all started following the same track, according to Røislien. First they use their air force, then they eventually go in with ground forces. – We don’t need to speculate to know a lot about how this war is developing. Israel is doing what they have always said they will do, and that is to wage a war in three stages. The first stage is the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the second stage is the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the third and final stage is the war against Iran, itself the sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah. – Because how are they going to remove Hamas and Hezbollah if they don’t take Iran into the war? It is impossible, says Røislien. You can read about how Iran is involved in both the war in Lebanon and on the Gaza Strip here: – Can weaken trust between the US and Israel The relationship between Israel and the US is tense at the moment. The US has given Israel several warnings, including against bombing densely populated areas in Beirut and stopping emergency aid into northern Gaza, something that has irritated the Israelis. – If it is true that the Israeli plans for a counter-attack against Iran have been leaked, it is a serious offence, says Mick Mulroy to CNN. Mulroy, who previously worked with the Middle East in the US Department of Defense and in the CIA, adds that this could harm future coordination between Israel and the US. – Trust is a key ingredient in the relationship, and this trust can now be weakened. Don’t want a big war The last year has been disastrous for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and gradually those who live in the West Bank, in northern Israel and in Lebanon. International media have been asking the same question since 7 October last year: Will this become a major regional war? Or even World War III? Iranians during a demonstration against Israel, in Tehran today. Photo: Majid Asgaripour / Reuters Røislien is one of the Norwegian experts who has had to answer this the most times, even today: – The fact that Israel behaves in detail does not necessarily mean that a war is inevitable, she says. – Iran can really appear to be warmongers, but we now see that when things really get down there, they don’t want this, she says, and refers to Iran’s reaction to yesterday’s drone attack on the port city of Caesarea, where Israel’s prime minister lives. Usually, Iran does not shy away from taking responsibility for such attacks, but this time it is different. Iran has put all the blame on Hezbollah. Israel has announced that it will take revenge on Iran since October 1, when Iran attacked Tel Aviv with rockets. news reporter Sidsel Wold witnessed the attack. – Iran expects a major attack from Israel, and tries to avoid it. I read that as saying that they do not want a major war, says Røislien, and elaborates: – Although Iran is a major military power, and can be compared to Israel, they have no chance against an Israel plus the USA. It is a war that no one wants, if they can avoid it. Perhaps with the exception of Israel. – That they want that war, I don’t want to say that. “Will” is the wrong word. But there are probably more arguments for than against him, as they see the situation now. But that doesn’t mean it will happen. Published 20.10.2024, at 12.39
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