In the document which the Ministry of Finance published by mistake on Thursday afternoon, it appears that they are assuming inflation of 3 per cent next year. – All excise duties have basically been adjusted upwards by 3.0 per cent to take account of the expected price increase, it says. This figure is usually published at 08:00 on the budget day together with other key figures. The government’s proposal for the national budget will be presented on Monday next week. – This figure has something to say about how the purchasing power may go. This indicates a continued rise in real wages, says senior economist Kyrre Aamdal at DNB Markets. Senior economist at DNB Markets, Kyrre Aamdal. Photo: William Jobling / news Norges Bank assumes wage growth of 4.3 per cent next year, and Aamdal believes it is reasonable to think that the government will estimate approximately the same. If wages increase more than prices, it means that you will have more to deal with. Somewhat lower than Norges Bank’s estimate The government’s price growth estimate is somewhat lower than what Norges Bank used as a basis in its latest analyses. They estimate that growth in the consumer price index (CPI) in 2025 will be 3.2 per cent. Statistics Norway (SSB) for its part estimates a price increase of 3.3 per cent next year. Aamdal in DNB Markets believes that the reason the government has a different estimate than Norges Bank and Statistics Norway may be that the government has power over the levy and VAT level, and thus knows that lower levies can reduce price inflation. – For example, they have already announced that the VAT on water and sewage will be reduced from 25 to 15 per cent. It can have a marginal effect, says Aamdal. Aamdal in DNB Markets interprets the price growth estimate as follows: – This indicates that the government believes that they are on track to bring price growth down to the target within a few years, says senior economist Kyrre Aamdal in DNB Markets. Norges Bank manages the interest rate to achieve a price increase of around 2 per cent annually. Chief economist Kyrre Knudsen at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank. Photo: Jan Inge Haga – This may contribute to the interest rate coming down somewhat faster. It is not very much lower than Norges Bank estimates, but on the margin this is good news, says Kyrre Knudsen to news. He is chief economist at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank. Doesn’t say anything about the priorities – This is probably the least exciting figure from the national budget that we can think of, says chief economist at Sparebank1 Markets Harald Magnus Andreassen. – Why that? – It does not say anything about what the government will prioritize or deprioritise. Or what the budget balance will be. This is a kind of technical prerequisite for making the budget stick together. Chief economist at Sparebank1 Markets Harald Magnus Andreassen. Photo: Sparebank1 Markets / CF-WESENBERG No major changes to sugar, smoke and alcohol In the involuntary leak on Thursday about proposed tax rates for 2025, it also appears that there are no major changes to a number of taxes. Among other things, all alcohol and tobacco taxes will receive a tax adjustment of approximately 3 percent. The same applies to sugar. Photo: Fredrik Varfjell / NTB There are some small deviations, with a decimal up and down. This may be due to rounding of the rates. This applies to, among other things: Other alcoholic beverages from 4.7 to 22 percent by volume will receive a tax increase of 2.9 percent per litre. Other alcoholic beverages up to and including 4.7% by volume receive a tax increase of 3.1%. Cigars, cigarettes, smoking tobacco, cigarette paper, E-liquid with nicotine and tobacco for heating will receive a tax increase of 2.9 per cent. Snuff and snuff will receive a tax increase of 3.1 per cent. The sugar tax will be increased by 3.1 per cent from NOK 9.18 to 9.46 per kilo. In the last 12 months, inflation has been 2.6 per cent. In 2023, total inflation was 5.5 per cent, while in 2022 and 2021 it was 5.8 and 3.5 per cent respectively. Leaked by mistake The article with the figures from the national budget was published on Thursday afternoon. It was removed after NTB contacted the Ministry of Finance. – I can confirm that on Thursday afternoon we accidentally published an overview of tax rates on the government’s website. Regrettably, the wrong button was pressed at the wrong time, wrote communications director Tor Borgersen in the Ministry of Finance in an e-mail to NTB. Every autumn, considerable secrecy surrounds the budget proposal, the documents and the figures. The exceptions are the information that is more or less deliberately given to various media ahead of budget day, often by the government itself. That tax figures and the government’s proposal for changes in structure and rates for next year are inadvertently published several days before the budget proposal is presented should therefore not occur. Published 04.10.2024, at 06.37 Updated 04.10.2024, at 09.07
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The government proposes price growth of 3 percent in 2025 in the state budget – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
