Behind the report are 25 researchers from the international research group World Weather Attribution (WWA). They have studied the storm Boris, which hit several countries in Central Europe from 12-16. September. Violent torrential rain that lasted for four days hit Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, the Czech Republic and Germany, causing severe flooding in many places. The torrential rain is becoming increasingly intense WWA’s study warns that the floods will become even more destructive with continued fossil emissions. It also highlights the costs of climate change, after the EU allocated €10 billion for post-Boris repairs. The flood claimed at least 24 lives and destroyed thousands of homes, swept away bridges and caused major power outages. Through their analyses, the researchers came to four main findings: The four-day torrential downpour is the worst rainfall ever recorded in Central Europe, by a wide margin. By combining weather observations with climate models, the researchers found that climate change made torrential rain twice as likely and seven percent more intense. Similar storms will lead to at least five percent more rain, and will occur around 50 percent more often than now, if global warming reaches two degrees. It is expected to happen in the 2050s. The massive destruction after Boris shows how important it is for the countries to prepare and adapt to extreme weather that will be worse than this, and come more often. This means that countries must integrate climate change into spatial planning and plan for major floods. Warmer, wetter and wilder Climate change has already changed where, how often and how strongly the world experiences floods, and can lead to more and more serious landslides, according to the UN climate panel. This is, among other things, because Europe and other parts of the world have experienced a lot of extreme rainfall in recent years the years. Man-made climate change is already increasing the chance of the rain becoming so extreme. Lars Tore Endresen / news What has happened so far? When the temperature rises, more water evaporates, and the atmosphere can hold more water. This means that the precipitation becomes more concentrated and intense, according to the climate panel. They say that spring floods come earlier than before, and that floods come more often and more powerfully than before in many places in the world. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration What do we know about landslides? Increased rainfall and melting of snow and glaciers can also increase the risk of landslides, especially in steep mountain areas. In addition to climate change, population growth and tourism are also factors that make landslides more likely in the future, because there will be more pressure on nature. Can we do something about it? The less greenhouse gases the world emits in the coming years, the less warming we will get. Then the risk of extreme weather linked to water will also decrease. In addition, there are measures such as warning systems and better planning of infrastructure, which can limit the worst damage. Countries around the world have pledged to try to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. With current policies, we are facing 2.8 degrees of warming, according to UNEP. Fossil energy must go – Our studies have found traces of climate change in the explosive rainfall that hit Central Europe. Again – these floods are the devastating result of global warming due to fossil emissions. So says Joyce Kimutai, professor and researcher at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change in London. Flood in Jesenik in the Czech Republic on 15 September. Photo: Petr David Josek / AP – Until oil, gas and coal are replaced with renewable energy, storms like Boris will lead to even more torrential rain and even more flooding, says Kimutai. Simulating the storm – These are good scientists. They use the best weather forecasting models to do these studies. They are very precise. That’s what Tore Furevik, managing director at the Nansen Centre, says. He explains that the method the WWA researchers use is to simulate the storm that was by using weather forecast models. Tore Furevik, managing director at Nansensenteret Photo: Nansensenteret – The new thing is that they are actually able to put numbers on it, how often it is likely to get that type of weather. – You look at how likely it is that you would not have had the storm, if you had not had global warming. You look at the temperatures that were before global warming, i.e. before releasing CO₂ and changing the climate. In the same way, you can see the development going forward in time. People are evacuated in Slobozia Conachi in Romania during the worst flood ever. Photo: Daniel MIHAILESCU / AFP – You can take different scenarios, from the UN climate panel for example, where you look at how the temperature will develop, given different emissions of CO₂ in the future. Then you can take the same models and see what the temperature or climate will look like in, for example, 50 years. You can, for example, look at how often you will get as much rainfall as you got in Europe on 12-16 September, Furevik explains. Published 25/09/2024, at 06.37 Updated 25/09/2024, at 06.48
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Climate change has doubled the probability of flooding in Europe – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
