On Wednesday, the Norwegian and Danish foreign ministers, the Swedish defense minister and the minister for Nordic cooperation in Finland gathered to record a historic debate in Copenhagen. The politicians were challenged by a number of experts and activists about how the Nordic countries should respond to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Among them was the Norwegian professor at NUPI and expert on Russian politics, Julie Wilhelmsen. PUTIN’S OBJECTIVE: Julie Wilhelmsen, professor at NUPI and expert on Russia, believes that Putin has probably changed the objective of the war in Ukraine. Photo: DR Wilhelmsen said in the debate that the Western countries’ support for Ukraine is based on having answered “yes” to two central questions: That Putin wanted and will take all of Ukraine. That Putin is not satisfied with Ukraine, but that other NATO countries are also threatened by Russia But the Norwegian researcher believes that one cannot know that it is so obvious. – Enormous dynamic play – The problem is that you say that either they are a threat, or they are not. But the point is that since the war began, we have been involved in an enormously dynamic game. For example, if we look at what Putin has done during that period, we see that he has avoided getting into a direct confrontation with NATO countries, says Wilhelmsen. NORDIC DEBATE: DR’s concert hall set the stage for a joint Nordic debate on defense and security policy. Photo: Joakim Reigstad / news This may mean that countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which feel very threatened by Russia, may be able to lower their shoulders somewhat, according to the researcher. – In addition, there is also a question of capacities and capabilities. It is unlikely that Russia has the capacity to enter a NATO country, for example. Thinks Putin may have changed his goals Julie Wilhelmsen believes a lot has changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. It started with an unsuccessful Russian campaign against the capital Kyiv. Back then, Putin’s goal was probably to take all of Ukraine, she believes – and it was supposed to happen quickly. It didn’t work out that way. PRESS: Ukrainian soldiers have carried out an offensive in Kursk in Russia. It puts pressure on Putin. Photo: AFP Wilhelmsen now believes that Putin may have scaled back the goals for the war. – Although it looked like the Kremlin’s goal was to take all of Ukraine to begin with – we are quite sure of that – it is not certain that is the goal anymore, she says. – There are several things that indicate that. Among other things, that Putin has had trouble at home, and does not have such good cover for waging a war that costs the Russian population very much. Wilhelmsen believes that Russia is now far more interested in Eastern Ukraine. – We also see on the ground that Russia has consolidated its position in eastern Ukraine. In addition, we know from interviews with people in the Russian defense establishment that the majority of them say that there may be some kind of territorial compromise in Ukraine. Therefore, I believe that we must keep an eye on the Putin regime in order to constantly assess what their goals may be now. Can they be different from when the war began, she asks. – Difficult to misunderstand Putin That Western countries have misunderstood Putin’s plan for the war is flatly rejected by all the Nordic politicians on the panel. – I think it is difficult to misunderstand Putin, it is very clear what he did. He entered Ukraine unprovoked with the ambition to take all of Ukraine and incorporate it into a kind of new “Greater Russia”, says Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen to news. SUMMIT: Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson (left) and Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen (centre) photographed during the debate. Photo: NTB – With Ukrainian fighting spirit, great courage and support from Europe and the West, we have thwarted Putin’s plans. Now we find ourselves in a time of destiny and it is not the time to start doubting. Now we will give Ukraine the support they need, adds Rasmussen. Both the Finnish minister and Norway’s foreign minister Espen Barth Eide have the same attitude. – I do not agree with Wilhelmsen on that. I believe that we cannot assume that Russia will not adjust more if they succeed in Ukraine, he says. – We don’t know exactly what will happen, but we cannot live in a Europe where you confirm that it is possible to change borders by force, and that you come out of it lucky. Therefore, Ukraine’s struggle is also our struggle. It is also a battle for the European legal order. And for faith in international law, emphasizes Eide. NORWEGIAN MINISTER: Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide during the debate in Copenhagen Photo: NTB The Swedish Defense Minister also denies that it is a misunderstanding. – I do not share that perception. We consider it an investment in our own security to support Ukraine. Should Putin succeed on the battlefield, it will increase the pressure on Moldova and the countries on NATO’s eastern flank. Therefore, we will continue to support Ukraine as long as we can. – Have to consider different possibilities Julie Wilhelmsen, for her part, believes that the politicians must reflect on the consequences of donating large quantities of weapons to Ukraine. – Russia continues to terror bomb Ukraine. But I think again the point here is that we have to consider different possibilities. What is scary about the fact that Ukraine has entered Kursk is the discussion about the West supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine, so that they can hit even further into Russia. It is something that Ukraine wants, she says. LONG-RANGE WEAPONS: Ukraine wants long-range weapons, but several countries hesitate. Photo: Gunnar Bratthammer / news Wilhelmsen believes that one must also think about how this is interpreted in Russia. Putin’s conspiratorial narrative that the Russian population is surrounded by NATO, which aims to defeat Russia, is much more important for mobilizing young Russians than the lie that Ukrainian leaders are Nazis, she believes. – But we don’t know when the red line for the Kremlin will suddenly be there. Now they may even lose parts of Russia. And then they can reach further down into the toolbox, or weapon box, and use stronger weapons. Which leads to a very scary escalation. So the point is that we have to continue to consider what the scenarios are here. – And in that armory there are nuclear weapons? – Yes, it does. And that is exactly what Russia has. They have nuclear weapons, and that is the reason why the USA also hesitates to deliver long-range weapons, because they are afraid of just such an escalation into a third world war, which nobody wants. Watch the Debate on news 1 on Thursday 12 September at 9.15pm – or whenever you want on news TV. More content from the foreign editors: Published 12.09.2024, at 18.52
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Researcher Julie Wilhelmsen believes Putin has changed the goal of the war in Ukraine – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
