There are two versions of being “unstoppable”. One is to win four league titles in a row, like Manchester City. But another is to get better all the time, like Arsenal. For five years, Martin Ødegaard’s team has taken more points than the previous season. The graph above shows that the requirement to take the title is around 90 points, which has become the standard for City. This season, Arsenal can put the list even higher. The age profile Today’s Arsenal can quickly exceed 90 points. In football, there is talk of the “age profile”, the mix of old and young players in the stable. If you have a lot of young people (like Chelsea), you may lack leaders. If you have a lot of old ones (like West Ham), you will soon need new faces. Arsenal have an ideal balance. Among the names that started in the victory against Aston Villa on Saturday, all the outfield players apart from Thomas Partey were between 22 and 27 years old. No one was too young to handle the level. No one was too old to struggle with the pace. SERIES OPENING: Kai Havertz after the 2-0 goal against Wolverhampton which secured the London team the perfect series opening. Photo: Ian Walton / REUTERS Coach Mikel Arteta has cultivated leaders who are nevertheless young. The foremost is captain Ødegaard (25 years old), but both the midfield boss Declan Rice (25) and the majestic stopper William Saliba (23) play with an authority that suggests older age. With almost the entire squad at the right age, Arsenal can improve without buying anyone. Win sooner or later When young players grow together, you get magic. Anyone who follows Manchester United knows what happened when a bunch of youngsters from the academy broke through in the A team during the 90s. The magic was not in each player individually, but that they took the steps together and built relationships over time. Arsenal doesn’t have many local names, but every year the players get a little older, a little stronger, a little smarter, a little better known. And the team’s level is already raw. Arsenal were better than City last season on underlying numbers, for those who care about ‘expected goals’, thanks to the league’s best defence. In the 2022/23 season, Arsenal collapsed in the run-in, which they have fixed. Last season they collapsed just before the New Year, when they lost 11 points in five games. Now the collective goal will be to keep the pressure up throughout the season, without major margin of error. As a coach, Arteta is constantly learning. New playmaker Individually, several of the offensive stars have a lot to go on. Ødegaard can become more dangerous. In 2022-23, he hammered in 15 league goals, and last season there were only six complete-hitters if we take away penalties. CAPTAIN: Martin Ødegaard can become even more dangerous this season. Here from Saturday’s match against Aston Villa Photo: Reuters Kai Havertz first found his flow this spring, and has enormous potential as a strange hybrid between towering tank forward and silky smooth playmaker. Saka gets better every season, and can become even more productive from his right wing. Gabriel Jesus has a sky-high peak level that we still only see occasionally. Together, this group can give Arsenal the creativity, variety and sting they need against teams that park the bus in front of goal and then throw away the keys. In addition, Arsenal have bought the Italian left-back Riccardo Calafiori, and got back Jurrien Timber, the defender who was injured for almost all of last season. The league’s strongest defense has become even stronger. Arsenal will soon sign Mikel Merino, an elegant playmaker who played alongside Ødegaard at Real Sociedad, and who strengthens the midfield considerably. OLD ACQUAINTANCE: Ødegaard will probably be visited by his former club colleague, Mikel Merino (left) at Arsenal. Photo: Alvaro Barrientos / AP Photo Arteta is right when he says that if Arsenal continue to work as they are now, they will win the title sooner or later. If Arsenal improve, City must do the same. Quarter horse head Men City don’t have the same kind of momentum as Arsenal. This is not a young group dreaming of the club’s first league title in more than 20 years. The stable is on the older end of the league’s scale, thanks to veterans such as Kyle Walker and Kevin De Bruyne. City is more like a machine that Guardiola is constantly fixing and adjusting. PEP GUARDIOLA: Under Guardiola, Manchester City have won the Premier League six times. Photo: David Cliff / AP Photo And there is always something to adjust. City have sold Julian Álvarez, the wily striker who worked so well as Erling Braut Haaland’s partner last autumn. The great Norwegian talent Oscar Bobb is injured for three to four months. The only signings are Savinho, a playful winger who takes Bobb’s place, and old club hero Ilkay Gündoğan. City have some young players who can be a lot better, among them Jérémy Doku, Rico Lewis, Oscar Bobb – and Haaland, who wasted an unusually large number of chances last season. Gündoğan strengthens the midfield. But otherwise, Guardiola will have to go shopping, or come up with new tactical tricks to keep City close. What speaks most for a new title for the light blues is the ability they have so often shown to stretch a quarter of a horse’s head ahead of their nearest rival. Three of the six league titles under Guardiola have been celebrated by City on the last day. GOLD: Jack Grealish and Kyle Walker after they beat West Ham 3-1 and could celebrate four straight league gold. Photo: Oli Scarff / AFP When Liverpool took 97 points, City took 98. When Liverpool took 92 points, City took 93. And when Arsenal took 89 points, City took 91. They have beaten rivals who know they had won the title under « normal’ circumstances, i.e. one in the world where Guardiola had never set foot in England. If Arsenal steps it up a notch, it is possible that City will do the same. But then we have the chaos off the field. Distractions The wild card in the title fight is the legal war. City has sued the Premier League due to new rules on the types of sponsors the clubs can make agreements with, a matter which, according to the English press, will be clarified shortly. The lawsuit has created a civil war behind the scenes of the league, and could mean more noise for Guardiola. Then comes the hearing of the Premier League’s famous 115 charges against City for various infringements from 2009-10 to 2017-18. The outcome could be anything from City being innocent to them getting points deducted or being relegated. British Sky Sports reports that the verdict will come in the spring of next year, i.e. when the teams can see the run-up side, and when City are usually at their best. FIVE LEAGUE TITLES IN A ROW?: Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Braut Haaland are chasing their seventh league win, but Arsenal are hoping for a change of thrones. Photo: David Klein / REUTERS Whatever the verdict, the reactions will be explosive and long-lasting. It’s not a distraction Guardiola needs. He probably remembers the 2019-20 covid season, when Uefa threw City out of the Champions League for two years, before City appealed and won. The saga bombarded the team with speculation and conspiracy theories from February onwards, and City took just 81 points. We can only wonder how distressing the case actually was for the players, but we know Guardiola likes to focus on the sporting side. If you add Arsenal’s progress, you now have nine months where City will enter bitter battles on all sides. The chances are good that Ødegaard will lift the trophy in May, because this will be Guardiola’s most difficult season at City. Even Pep can’t rule forever. Published 25/08/2024, at 14.13
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