The first character in the name Taiwan, 台 (Tái) means, among other things, typhoon, and the country fittingly has a stormy history. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit this week has shown more clearly than in a long time that Taiwan is the foremost reef in the sea for the world’s two biggest superpowers, the United States and China. China is now conducting a large military exercise that surrounds the entire island. The exercise is supposed to last until Sunday. Taiwan’s 23 million inhabitants are not so worried for now, and many have welcomed Pelosi with open arms. At the same time, the experts and commentators argue whether the third world war will break out here. SOLIDARITY: Eastern European protesters show solidarity with Ukraine outside Chiang Kai-shek’s memorial hall in Taipei on April 7 this year. Photo: SAM YEH / AFP Similarities with Ukraine Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused many to speculate. Will Taiwan suffer the same fate? There are several similarities, and here are some of them: Similar to what Russia claims about Ukraine, China claims to have a rightful claim to Taiwan. Both countries are officially called China, and were separated in 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists lost the civil war against Mao Zedong’s communists. Chiang fled to Taiwan, and China has never given up its ambition to one day reunite the entire country. As with Russia and Ukraine, Taiwanese and mainland Chinese cultures are very similar. Taiwanese and Chinese speak the same language, listen to much of the same music and learn about the same history. BEIJING OPERA IN TAIPEI: A Chinese opera singer rehearses on a stage in Taiwan’s National Theater in Taipei in 2005. Photo: WALLY SANTANA / AP Like Russia, China wants to challenge the US’s position as a great power, and feels surrounded by American allies. China has few partners to rely on in the Indo-Pacific region, mainly North Korea and Pakistan. At the same time, the “Middle Kingdom” is surrounded by American allies such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. THE SURROUNDING: China has few security policy partners (marked in red) in the Indo-Pacific area. The US has many (blue). Differences Ukraine is far greater in relation to Russia than Taiwan is in relation to China, both geographically and population-wise. In addition, there are several significant differences: There is no land border between China and Taiwan, and it is more difficult to prepare for a so-called amphibious invasion. FORTRESS: It would be difficult for China to invade Taiwan, as it would require moving hundreds of thousands of troops across the 80-mile-wide Taiwan Strait, the largest amphibious invasion in world history. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has received direct guarantees of support from the United States. The US strategy for Taiwan is ambiguous, but bound by a 1979 law called The Taiwan Relations Act. In it, the United States promises to support Taiwan with weapons, and preserve the ability to protect Taiwan. Ukraine never received any such promises before the invasion. Especially lately, the US has seemed to become even more willing to defend Taiwan. In May, even President Biden said for the second time that it is something they want to do. The economic dependence between China and the US is far greater than that between Russia and the West. China and the US are the world’s two largest economies, and are each other’s largest trading partners. Should China invade Taiwan, the US would likely respond by cutting off much of this trade. It could cause an economic collapse the likes of which we have probably never seen. At the same time, Taiwan is by far the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. A halt in that production would in itself have enormous economic repercussions. Especially for China. Why does China want to reunite with Taiwan? China and Taiwan is a long story. Taiwan was conquered by the Chinese Qing dynasty in 1683. Apart from a period as a Japanese colony from 1895 to 1945, Taiwan has been Chinese for almost 340 years. China sees the island as much a part of China as the other Chinese provinces. Reunification with Taiwan has been a Chinese goal since the end of the civil war in 1949, and Chairman Mao long made plans for an invasion. RIVALS: Two framed photos of arch-rivals Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek at the “Chairman Mao Cafe Bar” in Taiwan’s capital, Taipei. Photo: SIMON KWONG / Reuters It has not been possible for several reasons. Taiwan long had a far more capable navy and air force. The fear that the US would step into the conflict was also too great. In the 1990s, it began to appear that a peaceful reunification was possible. Then Taiwan and China agreed on the one-China principle, and opened up economic cooperation. But the relationship has since deteriorated, at the same time as the US and China’s rivalry has sharpened. In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen was elected president of Taiwan. She has previously shown open support for Taiwan’s independence. Thus, China has become more aggressive in its Taiwan line. MAO’S SUCCESSOR: Xi Jinping visiting Urumqi in Xinjiang, just a few months before he is to be elected president for the third time at the Communist Party Congress in October. Such a re-election has not happened since Chairman Mao’s time. Photo: Xie Huanchi / AP China 2049: National rebirth and reunification Xi Jinping’s grand project is to restore China’s status as a great power. By 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, Xi will carry out China’s “national rebirth”. It presupposes reuniting the territories lost during the colonial period and the Second World War. It includes Hong Kong, Macau, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. Xi is currently 69 years old, and may not be alive in 2049. Some therefore believe that an invasion will come earlier. China has in any case modernized its military, with the explicit aim of being able to invade. The country now has, for example, three aircraft carriers, of which the magnificent ship Fujian, which was launched in June. The costs are getting higher and higher for the US to want to defend Taiwan. Several researchers point to the Communist Party’s more nationalistic policies as a way of gaining legitimacy. The Communist Party has long relied on good growth figures and better living standards to secure the support of the Chinese. Now that growth is slowing down, nationalism and plans for reunification with Taiwan can be a good source of legitimacy. Did Nancy Pelosi’s visit make the situation more dangerous? Nancy Pelosi’s commitment to human rights in China and support for Taiwan also goes back a long way. Already when she was elected as a congressional representative in 1989, she criticized China for the Tiananmen massacre. Two years later, she was in Beijing, holding a banner in memory of the victims. In 2010, she was in Oslo to attend the awarding of Liu Xiaobo’s Nobel Peace Prize. PEACE PRIZE CEREMONY: In 2010, Nancy Pelosi attended the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo in Oslo City Hall. Liu Xiaobo was under house arrest in China and could not attend the ceremony. Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB Pelosi justifies her Taiwan visit in the Washington Post newspaper with the fact that the US must stand by its promise to support Taiwan. She mentions, among other things, China’s actions in Hong Kong and Tibet. She also calls China’s treatment of the Uighurs in Xinjiang “genocide”. Now that she is the highest-ranking politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years, it brings much-needed recognition to Taiwan. SUPPORT FOR TIBET: Nancy Pelosi with Tibet’s spiritual leader the Dalai Lama in India in 2008. Photo: Gurinder Osan / AP Pelosi also serves. She is making her mark politically ahead of the mid-term elections in the US this autumn, and is gathering support from large sections of the Chinese-American population. SURROUNDED: Map showing where military exercises will take place around Taiwan from Thursday to Saturday. The areas marked in red also enter Taiwan’s territorial waters under international law. Photo: Xinhua News Agency At the same time, the visit has caused increased tensions. Clearer US support increases China’s fears of Taiwan declaring independence. Nor could China’s leadership remain inactive in the face of what they consider a provocation. China and Taiwan expert David Sacks writes in Foreign Affairs that Pelosi’s visit has made the situation more dangerous. He believes the US should only make such visits to put concrete agreements in place with Taiwan, or to show support when China engages in sabre-rattling. That was not the case this time, and the visit could set a dangerous precedent. China has been given a golden opportunity to practice in Taiwan’s waters, with live ammunition. In addition, a wave of nationalist rhetoric about Taiwan has washed over China’s population anew.
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Will China invade? The way forward for the stormy island of Taiwan – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
