It was barely within the deadline. But on Wednesday, the first F-16s were in Ukraine, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis announced on X on Wednesday. On Sunday afternoon, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj confirms that the planes are on the wings: – The F-16 is in Ukraine. We did it. I am proud of our boys who have mastered these fighters and have already started using them for our country,” he said. The president spoke at a secret location in Ukraine, flanked by two F-16 jets. The planes are critical to giving Ukraine an advantage on the battlefield, Zelenskyj has previously claimed: “Fighter planes to Ukraine. Wings for freedom,” was Zelenskyi’s prayer when he addressed the British House of Commons in London a year and a half ago. But will the “wings for freedom” reverse Ukraine’s war fortunes? Two F-16 aircraft in the air at an unknown location in Ukraine on Sunday. On the tail fin you can see the Ukrainian coat of arms. Photo: Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters Getting a flight from Norway The answer is not self-evident. It depends on several things: How many planes will Ukraine get? What weapons do they have? What restrictions are there on using the weapons and planes? So far, Ukraine has been promised a total of 79 aircraft. Six from Norway. The rest are from Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark. The cards are kept close to the chest when it comes to the planes. But the British The Times writes that Ukraine has initially received six planes from the Netherlands. The information comes from an anonymous source and has not been independently confirmed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj (R) gives the leader of the House of Commons in the British Parliament, Lindsay Hoyle, the helmet of one of Ukraine’s most skilled fighter pilots as Zelenskyj spoke in London on February 8, 2023. The side of the helmet reads, “We have the freedom, give us wings to protect it”. Photo: STEFAN ROUSSEAU / AFP Bloomberg writes that before the end of the year Ukraine can get a total of 20 planes. Again with reference to anonymous sources. It is far from the 300 that Ukraine has requested. Can shoot down missiles – One of the fundamental problems is that there are very few, says retired lieutenant general and former chief of the defense staff, Arne Bård Dalhaug to news. He believes Ukraine will be careful not to expose the planes to risk. Thus, they can be kept well inside Ukrainian territory – far away from Russian air defense systems. Fighter jets to Ukraine Four countries, including Norway, have promised Ukraine a total of 79 F-16 aircraft: Belgium: 30 aircraft The Netherlands: 24 aircraft Denmark: 19 aircraft Norway: 6 aircraft Sources: Reuters, The Government, Politico – Are we basing this on the statements which have arrived, it seems as if they are intended to be used in an air defense role. For example, shooting down Russian cruise missiles, says Dalhaug. The question has long been whether Ukraine could use the planes to push the Russian soldiers back. Or to attack targets on the Russian side of the border. In that case, it will make it dangerous for the Russians to gather forces and material close to the border, as they did this spring before starting a new, major offensive in Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine. But all this depends on which missiles the F-16 aircraft are equipped with and how long their range is. The clean-up work is ongoing after another Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. This time a missile hit a health clinic on 22 July. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP – There is speculation that they may have received a number of missiles that can be delivered from a long distance, says Dalhaug. – They can probably be used on occupied Ukrainian territory. But we do not know how many such missiles they have received. After the Kharkiv offensive in May, several Western leaders said they would allow Ukraine to use Western weapons against targets inside Russian territory. But all restrictions have not been lifted. What weapons can the F-16s get? Anonymous American sources that The Wall Street Journal has spoken to say that the United States will provide Ukraine with weapons for the F-16 aircraft. Among other things, missiles to hit targets on the ground and in the air and control systems for bombs. Several missile types for the F-16 aircraft are mentioned: AIM-9X Sidewinders: An American air-to-air missile with a short range of up to 16 kilometers. AIM-120 Amraam: An American air-to-air missile with a medium range of up to 35 kilometers. AGM-88 Harm: An air-to-ground missile designed to locate and destroy air defense systems. Range of around 48 kilometres. All the missiles are manufactured by American Raytheon. Ukraine may also get JDAM, a guidance system that turns ordinary bombs into precision weapons. Source: Raytheon, US Air Force Russian progress Belgium, for example, does not allow the Ukrainians to fly over Russian territory. It is not known what restrictions there will be on using the weapons that the planes are equipped with. – One must assume that there will perhaps be restrictions on the use of Western weapons from the F-16 into Russian territory. We don’t know much about it, but there are things that will help to limit the effect of the plane, says Dalhaug. In addition, the planes and air bases could become a target for Russian airstrikes. Throughout the war, the Ukrainians have several times attacked targets inside Russian territory. In May, a missile hit a block of flats in Belgorod near the border with Ukraine. Photo: Telegram channel of Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladov / AP For a long time there have been small movements along the front lines. The Ukraine war has long since become a protracted war of attrition. But the Russians are slowly but surely gnawing their way further and further into Ukraine. The inhabitants of several villages in the east of the country were told to evacuate on Wednesday. This has not been confirmed by the Ukrainian side, according to Reuters. Dalhaug believes that the Russians’ modest progress is largely due to two things: That the Ukrainians waited until April to pass a new law on mobilisation. That it took half a year before the Republicans approved a new arms delivery to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in an F-16 aircraft in Vojens, Denmark in August 2023. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen / AP In this context, Dalhaug does not predict any decisive military victories for Ukraine as a result of the “wings for freedom », the F-16 planes. Thus, one can expect that the war of attrition will continue. – I think initially one should have fairly sober expectations of what kind of impact this can have, says Dalhaug. Interested in foreign affairs? Listen to the foreign affairs editor’s podcast here: Published 04.08.2024, at 09.11 Updated 04.08.2024, at 16.21
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